Rain has been a scarce commodity over the past few weeks. Our last decent rain was on August 17 with 1.59 inches falling. Since then we have had .28 of an inch in Otsego. We have had 12 straight days of dry sunny weather. We had some fog yesterday which didn’t clear out until after 11 am. Yesterday’s high was 88° and the low was 52°. Finally, changes are coming to break our monotonous weather pattern. Areas of morning fog in parts of central and southern Michigan will give way to another mostly sunny day. Then scattered showers and thunderstorms develop on Friday. Another chance of rain arrives Sunday into Monday.
WPC Outlook
Friday’s QPF Outlook
Sunday QPF Outlook
Days 1 through 5 rainfall
Weather History
1997: A line of severe thunderstorms producing wind gusts to 70 mph downed trees and power lines from Allegan County through Jackson County. Around 10,000 customers lost power. A boy in Hastings was injured by a lightning strike.
9 19 97 storm – Radarscope archive
On September 19, 2011, Detroit recorded 1.81 inches of rainfall which is a record for the date. This helped push Detroit to its 4th wettest September on record with 6.28 inches of rain. Interestingly, the September rain did not extend farther north. Flint recorded 2.09 inches and Saginaw had 1.73 inches which were both well below average and in the top 30 driest September for those two cities.
On September 19, 2002, an upper air disturbance moved across Lower Michigan during the late afternoon and evening hours on the 19th. This disturbance combined with unseasonably warm and humid air across Lower Michigan to trigger widespread thunderstorms. These thunderstorms initially moved into the Saginaw Valley during the late afternoon hours. During the evening, another round of thunderstorms moved from south to north across the region. Some of these thunderstorms were severe with damaging wind gusts, including an estimated 100,000 dollars in damage in Algonac and Harsen Island. Three men were installing a roof at an apartment complex under construction in Ann Arbor when they were struck by lightning. Two of the men were injured, while the third was later pronounced dead.
2002 Storms – Radarscope archive
Also on September 19, 1997, severe thunderstorms developed ahead of a strong cold front that moved across southeast Lower Michigan. The severe thunderstorms downed trees and power lines in Chelsea (Washtenaw County), Farmington Hills (Oakland County), Detroit (Wayne County), Clinton (Lenawee County), and Dundee (Monroe County). Lightning struck a farm near Coleman (Midland County) killing 4 horses. Lightning also damaged 2 houses in Waterford (Oakland County) and an apartment building in Westland (Wayne County). About 20,000 people were left without power.
NWS Forecast
Forecast Discussion
- Mostly sunny and hot today, chance of storms Friday One more day of abundant sunshine and hot temperatures as the blocking pattern begins to break down. Mixing will bring down drier air aloft again today which will keep the humidity in check. Highs in the mid 80s are expected again. Increasing clouds tonight will limit how much temperatures fall. I`d expect lowest temperatures...upper 50s...to occur over the eastern cwa. A short wave over North Dakota will lend some support for the surface low over the upper MS Valley today as it tries to push a weak cold front eastward. Given the downward diurnal instability trend late tonight, anything that moves across the lake will likely be showers around sunrise. Instability will rise during the day Friday and SBCAPE values increase to around 800-1200 j/kg...highest over the southern cwa. As the frontal boundary moves eastward, it will encounter the higher instability and a broken line of showers/storms may develop. Bulk shear values rise to 35-40 kts across the far southern cwa after 18z giving rise to the possibility of some organization and potentially a few strong/severe storms. CAMs forecast soundings Friday afternoon show the classic inverted V signature suggesting that downdraft winds will be the greatest threat. - Cooler next week with chances for showers or storms, most likely Sunday night into Monday The spread among the ensembles remains rather large with varied plausible outcomes in the day-to-day weather next week, but overall it is a pattern that supports daytime highs more often in the 70s and occasional showers or thunderstorms. The complex interaction between a northern jet stream wave pattern which is fast-flowing, amplified, and progressive against a southern stream which is showing a tendency for blocking may be a culprit behind the lesser predictability toward the middle of next week. There is still medium confidence for rain, potentially over 1 inch in spots and the best chance of rain in quite a while, late Sunday into Monday. This is as an upper-level low over California and the Desert Southwest moves toward the Midwest while becoming more incorporated into the northern stream. Northward transport of moisture in the lower atmosphere ahead of this low and a frontal zone over the region would support showers, and an assortment of ensemble members have enough instability to support a chance of thunderstorms. The 00Z run of the ECMWF ensemble provides a 40-60 percent chance of 0.50+ inch rain totals in 24 hours between Sunday evening and Monday evening.
Forget the 80’s and bring the rain! Incredible!
I feel bad for people who don’t have sprinklers. This streak of 100% sunshine is crazy!
Let’s hope we get some of that rain. On a bright note haven’t had to mow in about 2 weeks….it’s all dried up.
Weird question but does this dry and heat keep ticks away. I know very said they like wet and 40ish weather. They have been so bad the past few years.
Yesterday was yet another summer-like day. The official H/L was 83/53 there was no rainfall GR is now -1.71” for the month. The sun was out 98% of the time. For today the average H/L is now down to 73/52 the record high of 91 was set in 1908 the coldest high of 54 was set in 1991. The record low of 36 was set in 1929,1979 and 2020. I have some pictures of frost for 2020. The warmest low of 68 was set in 1965. The most rainfall of 1.73” was in 1988
Slim