The weather has been dry over the past ten days with lots of sun – 99% of possible sunshine over the past five days. Yesterday we reached a warm 73° with a morning low of 40°. There will be a strong cold front moving through today though there isn’t a whole lot of moisture you may pick up a shower or brief downpour. Temperatures will plummet behind the front dropping into the 30s tonight and reaching into the low 50s tomorrow.
Forecast Discussion
-- Cold Front Today -- On the map early this morning is an upper level +PV anomaly over Illinois that won`t be of much consequence here other than providing altostratus or altocumulus clouds and virga. The more significant upper level trough and its associated surface cold front is over Superior/U.P. and moving southeast. The HREF members continue to show fair agreement on cold frontal passage from northwest to southeast today, starting around noon at Ludington, reaching Holland - Grand Rapids - Alma around 5 PM, then Jackson around 8 PM. With timing like that, southern to southeast Lower Michigan will still have one more day of fairly mild autumn temperatures (though with more of a breeze) before a sharply colder Friday. The cold front will likely bring a marked NNW wind shift and then a few hour window for scattered showers. Forecast soundings are lackluster with CAPE, and what little there is would be focused within air warmer than -10C, which really limits the potential for lightning. Any lightning would be more probable in Central Lower toward the east. Soundings do show a deep layer of moist air amid this lift and weak stability, so some showers could produce more moderate downpours though they would be brief. Winds tonight turn more north and difluent across the Lower Peninsula, which may support areas of clearing despite a lake- effect thermal environment. A band of lake effect showers may clip the Points around Ludington and Silver Lake state parks, but the winds over Lake Michigan will be more from NNE and keep much of the activity offshore. Another lake effect band focused south off Grand Traverse Bay may affect some of Lake/Osceola counties but downsloping plus the large-scale tendency for subsidence should limit the extent of that band. Despite some wind, temperatures could dip close to the freezing mark in interior Central Mich if clearing occurs. -- A Cold End To The Week But Recovery In Sight Next Week -- Temperatures Friday will struggle to climb above 50 degrees, which would put us about 15 degrees below normal for the day. Winds Friday night will weaken but will be favored from the west, and this would set up a night near freezing for many areas inland away from Lake Michigan. Ensemble support for somewhat milder air returning for Sunday is good with limited spread in solutions. From Monday onward the ensemble spread widens, though not enough to take away from the warming trend back into the 60s through the middle of next week. This makes sense given the likelihood for a more progressive wave pattern across North America moving the Hudson Bay low and its associated pool of cold air out of the picture and washing the milder air from the western ridge over our region, even if only temporarily.
Category: Michigan Weather Forecast
It is nice to see the latest CPC keeps the cool trend going at the least for the next 2 weeks!!!!! Heat, what heat?
Get ready for the incredible cold! The next couple days will be double digit below normal! Wow, just wow! What a cool trend and are having! This could be a precursor for winter! Get prepared now!
Dont forget the snow falling northeast of Lake Superior tonight who needs Denver Colorado… INDY
Thanks Slim for the info on the 80’s the cooler mornings 40’s even some 30’s have been more consistent then 80’s this Fall I will take that to the bank … And yes we definitely need change across America Vote INDY in 2024 yeahhhh lol…. INDY
Can’t ask for much better weather this week. The leaves have really started to turn now. The maples are really starting to pop.
Barry asked how many days of 80 or better have we had this year? Well we have had a lot. So far at Grand Rapids there have been 85 days of 80 or better the average number is 72 The most at Grand Rapids is 96 in 2012 and the least is 36 in 1924. At hot Lansing they have had a total of 96 days of 80 or better their average is 68 the range is between 105 in 1894 to 34 in 1866 their total for 2012 was 92 and in 1927 there total was 39. At Holland this year the number of 80 or better so far is 67 their average is 70 the range is between a reported 109 in 1991 to a low of 32 in 1924. In 2012 Holland reported 98 and Grand Rapids reported 94 in 1991. Not sure why there is such a difference in some of the years.
Slim
Interesting stats! Definitely some oddities between places. Holland had 20 less than GR this year? And Hollands record is 109 while the GR record is 96?!
Sometime I will have to go over the records day by day and see if that has any clue as to the difference. I know at Lansing in some of their old record there are some wild swings from day to day and that makes some of the older record subject.
Slim
Goes to show how screwed up the stats are!
Just a question. Has anyone noticed that the lady bugs seem to have been missing and replaced by stink bugs? I have noticed this the past few days. When we had warm days our south side of the house would be covered with lady bugs and I haven’t really seen them around. I, instead, see stink bugs. Just wondering if it is just around us or has anyone else noticed this too?
I have not seen many lady bugs. Stink bugs and box elder bugs are what I have seen the most so far this fall.
I enjoyed the graphic Bill had on the air the other day. Showed the record amounts of snow on each day in October. 8.2” is the record on the 27th and that was in 1967. I feel as though we are due for a big October dumping of snow
Sunniest start to October on record?
Sunshine records are one of the records that are not easy to find. The record for sunshine that I have is the most being 79.5% in 1938 with the least being 18.7% in 1925. The reported average is 43.6% This past September the reported sunshine was 51%The reported average for September is 61%
Slim
Late yesterday Indy asked
Slim did we have any 80’s in September?? Seems like forever aga it was 80 or better around here hmmmmmm… INDY
Yes we had 10 days of 80 or better in September the last one was on September 21st with a high of 81. While it is too early to say if that will be the last one this year the average date for the last 80 day at Grand Rapids is September 30th The range has been from August 28 in 1918 to November 1st in 1950
Slim
One third of the month? Interesting. And I don’t think 2 weeks quite qualifies as forever aga (ago?) How many 80 degree days are we up to this year? I know back in August it was getting up there.
I’m worried about Indy. He just forgot one-third of the entire month? LOL
No Indy is just getting ready to run for public office.
Slim
I have some numbers posted for you.
Slim
We are now have 5 days in the record books for October 2022 and so far each day has had highs above average. On the other hand the nights have been mostly below average. Here at Grand Rapids the official H/L yesterday was 74/42 there was 66% of possible sunshine and no rain fall. The overnight low here in MBY was 48 and the current temperature here is 50. At GRR the overnight low was 50 and the current temperature there is a reported 55. For today the average H/L is now down to 65/45 the record high of 87 was recorded in 2007 and the record low of 28 was set in 1964 and 2003. Last year the H/L was 71/55.
Slim
We have had good conditions for the leaf change so far. Warm days, cool nights above freezing, not that much wind, and sunny days.