Yesterday we had a few peeks of the sun, even so with the clouds we hit 88° with dewpoints in the low 70s. Our low was 58°. We are at 69° at 6 am. We had zero rain for yesterday.
An isolated shower is possible this morning, with showers and storms picking up in coverage this afternoon. The best coverage will be especially east of U.S.-131. Severe weather is not likely. Locally heavy downpours will be possible. There will be a chance of showers and storms almost every day this week with a series of weak weather systems. It will be warm and humid all week.
The SPC has the SW corner of the state in the marginal outlook for the next two days.
Day One Outlook
Day two Outlook
Weather History
1916: Temperatures soared to record highs as a ten-day heat wave reached its peak. The 102 degrees at Lansing would tie the record for the hottest day ever there. Grand Rapids hit 103 degrees as part of a record string of four consecutive days of 100 degrees or higher. Even the Lake Michigan shore was baking, with Muskegon hitting 95 degrees.
On July 29, 2000, thunderstorms brought flash flooding to Detroit. Rain amounts were 2.92 inches of rain.
NWS Forecast
Today
A chance of showers and thunderstorms then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5 pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. South southwest wind around 6 mph. The chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and a quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 5 am. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 67. Light and variable wind.
Tuesday
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8 am and 2 pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. West northwest wind 3 to 6 mph. The chance of precipitation is 20%.
Tuesday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 am. Patchy fog after 1 am. Otherwise, increasing clouds, with a low of around 66. West northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Wednesday
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8 am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 pm. Patchy fog before 9 am. Otherwise, mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 90. Calm wind becoming south-southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. The chance of precipitation is 20%.
Wednesday Night
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8 pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68.
Thursday
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 88.
Thursday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 2 am, then a chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68.
Friday
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 85.
Friday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2 am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 64.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 87.
Forecast Discussion
- Showers and storms with potentially heavy rain into Tuesday Bottom Line up front: Showers and storms across southern lower Michigan this afternoon and evening from an approaching convective system could become strong, especially in far SW MI, along with the potential for locally heavy rainfall overnight into Tuesday morning. Light showers moving northward along the US 127 corridor this morning is a harbinger for the next few days. Latest satellite shows the streaming of the cloud deck from the south over Michigan. This band of moisture coincides with the GFS and the EC showing mid level moisture out ahead of an approaching upper level trough. That upper level trough is providing the instability for a mesoscale convection system moving through Iowa early this morning. Models vary on the timing of this approaching system but the upper level pattern is expected to move through lower Michigan mid to late this afternoon into Tuesday. That negatively tilted trough should provide enough dynamical forcing, along with deep layer moisture, to allow for showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Model soundings continue to have weak shear, though winds have increased compared to previous runs. This could be due to the further northward position of the low. Winds have increased from the south out ahead of the approaching system which will only feed the warm air advection. The moisture columns in all the CAM soundings are extremely moist, from the surface upwards of 25KFT. That, coupled with between 500 to 1K J/KG of CAPE should be enough to form showers and storms. This warm and moist air mass has PWATS of 1.5 to 2 inches trending. That leads me to think the main concerns would be heavy downpours though hail is possible. SPC has the far SW corner of Michigan in a marginal risk due to the track of the MCS though it will be weakening at that point and the best shear will be closer to Chicago. As the MCS moves eastward, the lingering convection could be enhanced by a lake breeze to bring strong storms into SW Michigan late this afternoon into the evening. Along with any storms that form this afternoon and evening the concern is that given; the PWATS, the deep moisture, the weaker shear, the current track of the low, and the time of day locally heavy downpours are possible tonight into tomorrow. While there remains some questions of location of heaviest rain, there continues to be a signal with the heaviest showers along and adjacent of the I 94 corridor. Have used WPC QPF but adjusted it slightly for convection. Skies will slowly clear as the system moves eastward Tuesday with warm, humid air over the area. - Unsettled weather with occasional showers/storms Wednesday-Friday The models and ensemble means continue to be locked on to an unsettled weather pattern continuing through the end of the week for the region. The pattern responsible for this will be a low amplitude trough over the region with somewhat zonal flow characteristics. What this means for Lower Michigan is that we will see occasional short waves move through the area. These short waves will bring shower/storm chances with each of them. That is because with a general southerly warm and moist flow in the lower levels, sufficient moisture and instability will be present for the waves to act on. This is affirmed by forecast precipitable water values up near 2.0 for most of the week. The short waves for Wednesday and Thursday do not look to be that strong, and will not have a lot of mid level flow for our area to provide for an organized severe threat. The limited mid level flow will provide for slow moving storms with the high pwats, and will keep a localized heavy rain threat in place for the area. The best concentration of pcpn will be with peak heating, with a trend down each night with the loss of the diurnal instability. The potential last short wave on Friday looks to have a better shot of being a bit stronger, and could provide some increased chances of severe weather. The wave being stronger will have a bit better dynamics with it (low level jet, upper jet forcing, cooling aloft), providing the elevated chance of some severe weather. Too early to try and pin the details down yet, but it is something worth watching. - Drying out and cooling off next weekend The stronger wave moving into the area on Friday will eventually sweep the heat and humidity out of the area as it moves east of the area. The big question is when does it move east. There is some uncertainty whether it keeps progressing east, or gets absorbed by the long wave flow, and wraps back over the area on Saturday. We will see this wave eventually move out, and upper ridging build in and dry the area out.
On a side note, due to the mild winter, we had an explosion in the chipmunk population. I have caught over four dozen in live traps along with a couple of red squirrels and one fox squirrel. I even caught a field mouse. I let them go deep into the woods behind my house.
Ada – Heavy rain!…finally a little help for the lawn.
BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 802 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024 The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a * Tornado Warning for… Southeastern Barry County in southwestern Michigan… Southern Eaton County in south central Michigan… * Until 830 PM EDT. * At 802 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 7 miles west of Bellevue, or 9 miles north of Battle Creek, moving east at 15 mph. HAZARD…Tornado. SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes… Read more »
…A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Van Buren and western Kalamazoo Counties through 330 PM EDT… At 230 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Decatur, or 7 miles southwest of Paw Paw, moving northeast at 25 mph. HAZARD…Winds in excess of 40 mph. SOURCE…Radar indicated. IMPACT…Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include… Kalamazoo… Portage… Paw Paw… Vicksburg… Mattawan… Lawton… Bangor… Decatur… Parchment… Schoolcraft… Westwood… Comstock Northwest… Alamo… Pine Grove… Lawrence… Gobles… Bloomingdale… Breedsville… Oshtemo… Glendale…
.UPDATE… Issued at 1127 AM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Even though the first shortwave looks to have passed through our area based on the new development taking place east of U.S. 23, there is another one just upstream near MKE/Chicago. CAMs show this wave becoming more active as it shifts east into our area this afternoon and interacts with climbing diurnal sfc instability. Capes near 2000 J/KG are expected although deep layer shear remains less that 15 kts. Have increased PoPs to 60-70 percent over most the the area, with the primary threat being torrential rainfall and perhaps some… Read more »
We got a small shot of sprinkles yesterday around dinner time…
It rained here between 4-4:30 this morning. Not enough, though. It’s becoming dry and we need some precip.
We need RAIN! Bring it!
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 86/59 there was 0.02” of rainfall. The sun was out 48% of the time. For today the average H/L is 83/63 the record high of 103 was set in 1916 the coldest high of 66 was set in 1991 that is the only year that it has not reached 70 for this date. The record low of 47 was set in 1971 the warmest low of 78 was set in 1940 and 1916. The most rainfall of 1.74” fell in 1905. Last year the H/L was 84/68. The overnight low here in… Read more »