Chance of Storms Later Today

According to the SPC forecast for SW Michigan, we are now in the marginal (level one) risk for severe weather later today into early Wednesday morning.  The warm airmass should stay in place today and tomorrow before being replaced by much cooler air pouring in from Canada signaling the end of summer.  Daytime temps are predicted to drop into the low 60s with overnight lows in the 40s.

T-storms are possible across Lower Michigan on Tue afternoon/evening. Most of these storms will not be severe, but a few storms may produce 1” hail (quarter sized) and isolated damaging wind gusts. Additional t-storms are possible on Wed, a few of which may also be strong.

Yesterday we reached 78° after a morning low of 59°.  Today’s sunrise is 7:27 am and sunset is 7:43 pm.


Forecast Discussion

- Convection possible this afternoon through Wednesday morning -

Showers across portions of WI early this morning should dissipate
as they move east towards our area and encounter a stable airmass
here. However we expect scattered convection to develop across
portions of our area this afternoon due to gradually increasing
elevated instability north of the warm front. Strongest storms
may contain hail and briefly gusty winds and the overall svr wx
threat later today looks marginal.

Scattered convection is also likely to develop very late tonight
and Wednesday morning along and just ahead of the approaching
strong cold front. It is noted that the CAMs are not bullish on
convection. This is likely tied to unfavorable frontal timing for
our area and that the most favorable upper level dynamics stay
north also stay north of our area.

However we think the CAMs may be underdone with convection given
ample low level moisture and strong omegas with the cold front in
conjunction with favorable kinematics and as deep layer shear
increases to 30-40 kts. Given all this I would not be surprised if
we had a few severe storms late Tuesday night into Wednesday.

- Much cooler late this week -

Strong caa will occur after fropa and h8 temps will plummet to
around 2 C by midday Thursday. Max temps will struggle to reach
the lower 60s by Thur/Fri with mins mainly in the 40`s but some
colder readings in the 30s across our north/ne area. Lake induced
rain showers are also forecast Thursday mainly west of US-131
given the nw to nnw flow regime and very high delta t/s. Temps
will moderate a bit for the weekend and return to near normal for
this time of year.

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Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

I’m downtown Chicago for a couple of days for work. Severe Thunderstorm Warning just to the west. Looks like it will miss me.

INDY
INDY

Beautiful Fall night now the rain is over INDY

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

0.43” total rain here. Just had a decent little rainbow as well.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Total rainfall today is up to 1.1 inches!!! This is after a major downpour about 45 to 60 minutes ago! The incredible summer keeps rolling and the GR NWS weather service does a great job with their state of the art temperature equipment! Keep it up! Incredible accuracy!

Mr. Negative
Mr. Negative

ADA – 2/10 of an inch of rainfall snuck through here today. A small amount of lightning and thunder were enjoyed. Take what you get 🙁

Slim

The sun is now back out. The two rounds of rain have dumped a total of 0.19″ of rain here in MBY. The current temperature here is 66 with that sun.
Slim

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

I’ve been told some of the stoplights are out along the East Beltline. Traffic is a nightmare.

Slim

Just had the most intense thunder and lightening here in a long, long time. Not much rain but like I said a lot of thunder and lightning.
Slim

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

Just gusted close to 40mph I’d say at my house. Getting the gust front from the storms just NE of town. No rain yet though.

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Not much rain here, only 0.07”. Suns out again.

Slim

Just got back home. There was 0.10″ of rain here in MBY. To answer you question on the departures so far this month. Like has been the case for a while the means have all close with a mean of 68.3 at GR that is +2.7. Holland 68.0 +3.1. Lansing 68.6 +4.0 and Muskegon 69.9 +4.4. As has been the case for many months now Grand Rapids has been cooler compared to average than other locations.
Slim

Mookie
Mookie

GR the relative icebox once again. What a joke! I think I’m done referencing NWS GR temps. They are almost always about 0.5-1 degree cooler relative to average than the rest of Lower Michigan.

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

So far 0.14” of rain at my house so far today. We shall see what more we get.

INDY
INDY

Them temps will drop as the rest of September looks to be below or near average FALL!! INDY

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Now some thunder, lightning and mod rain! I think I only had to water my lawn 2 times all year! Definitely consistent rain around GR all summer! Incredible!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

So much for the rain fizzling by the time it gets across the lake! Current conditions = moderate rain and cool temps! Wow! So much for temps around degrees today!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Great summer, especially no heat waves, plenty of sun, many days and months with near normal temps! Incredible summer!

INDY
INDY

Welcome Fall with some more Fall like temperatures love it!! The trees will really be popping colors fast if we can get some lows in the 40s this weekend beaty at its best ..INDY

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

I’ve been in Columbus OH the past few days for work. It’s very warm and muggy down here… this has felt like a long summer to me

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

It’s been a great summer

Also…sorry you have to see all that buckeye stuff 😉

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Quite a bit of lightning just to our NW. Could use a little rain since it’s been so dry again this month but looks like it’s falling apart.

https://www.lightningmaps.org/#m=oss;t=3;s=0;o=0;b=;ts=0;z=8;y=42.5594;x=-87.0798;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;

Mookie
Mookie

Looks like true summer weather this year was from May 9th to September 21st. That’s a whopping 136 days!

*SS*
*SS*

I think it has been a nice summer. Some hot days to swim and some nice days to get some work done outside. With this cooler weather I will be splitting some of my flowers and moving them. By chance anyone know how to keep sassafras from coming back up? We cut a bunch of saplings to create a flower garden, but they keep coming up.

Slim

This sure has been a warm September so far. The average H/L after the first 19 days this month has been 77.9/58.6. And that said yesterday was no exception with a H/L of 79/62. There was a trace of rain fall reported along with 91% of possible sunshine. The overnight low so far at GRR has been 55 and here in MBY the low and current temperature so far is 54. For today the average H/L has dropped again and is now 72/51 the record high of 90 was set in 1931 and the record low of 33 was set… Read more »

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

What is the current departure from average?