We have a line of rain and storms moving across the lake this morning. A cold front will push into Lower Michigan from the west today, resulting in showers and storms as the front encounters a warm and humid air mass. A few of the storms this afternoon could reach strong to severe levels with damaging winds and locally heavy rain being the main threats. Highs in most areas will be in the 77 to 87-degree range. The best chance of severe weather will be in the thumb area while the rest of the area will be in marginal risk.
Labor Day weekend will be great with the humidity moving out and cooler air moving in.
SPC Forecast
WPC Labor Day weekend Forecast
Weather History
1949: A weak tornado struck just north of Grant in Newaygo County, causing some minor damage to small buildings and crops.
1976: Grand Rapids falls to 39 degrees, the coldest ever recorded during the month of August. Scattered frost occurs in rural areas.
1984: A tornado struck about 5 miles northeast of St. Johns in Clinton County, damaging two homes, but causing no injuries.
On August 30, 1984, an F2 tornado moved through Wayne County at 4:40 am. It caused $4 million worth in property damage and caused 4 injuries.
NWS Forecast
Forecast Discussion
- Humid and Warm Today With Chance of Thunderstorms A line of convection in Wisconsin early this morning is starting to decay as anticipated as it moves away from better dynamic support, shear, and instability. Some showers and perhaps a flash of lightning may linger through west-central Michigan after daybreak since moist 850 mb air should still be somewhat unstable. In the narrow warm sector of a frontal system today, it will be humid with dew points in most locations around 70. High temps southeast of Kalamazoo-Lansing may make a run at 90. Mid-late afternoon redevelopment of surface-based thunderstorms is likely in eastern Lower Michigan, though some model runs suggest development could take place as far west as Kalamazoo-Lansing around or after 3 PM. This would occur along a zone of better surface convergence associated with a wind shift and cold front. The confidence in the strength and location of the front during convective initiation is lower than we would like it to be, as the wind field in southern Michigan may depend on the effect of the ongoing convection and resultant cold pool over northwest Illinois to northeast Missouri, which models have not been consistent with. Where storms do develop this afternoon, narrow swaths of strong to severe wind gusts appear to be the main hazard, owing to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, 0-3 km shear around 20 knots with a fairly straight hodograph, steep low-level lapse rates at the peak of daytime heating, and a shear-parallel forcing mechanism. - Dry Weather and Slightly Below Normal Temperatures Sun-Wed We are still expecting dry weather from Sunday through Wednesday. The front that moves through the area on Sunday remains a dry frontal passage in tonight`s model runs. After Sunday a large surface high will drift through the Great Lakes region for the first half of next week. GFS BUFKIT overviews show a profile void of moisture. After today`s showers and storms it will be until next Thursday before we see chances for rain to return to the forecast. For those that like temperatures in the 70s and clear/sunny skies early next week is your kind of weather. Normal highs this time of year are up around 80 with lows near 60. We will be 5-15 degrees below normal for this time of year early next week with lows Monday and Tuesday morning`s likely dipping into the 40s across Central Lower Michigan. High temperatures will hold in the 70s. Bottom line...some nice early fall weather settling in for the weekend and early next week.
Getting rain with lightning and loud thunder. Stinks for the tailgaters on campus.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ARENAC BAY BRANCH CALHOUN CLINTON EATON GENESEE GLADWIN GRATIOT HILLSDALE HURON INGHAM JACKSON LAPEER LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MACOMB MIDLAND MONROE OAKLAND SAGINAW SANILAC SHIAWASSEE ST. CLAIR TUSCOLA WASHTENAW WAYNE
Sounds like Lansing to the East, gets the last of the rain for a while.
Michael,
Are we in the clear for storms? Any rain???
waiting see where they develop – it will be close
Ok. It seems everything is moving easy of us .. a little rain would be nice on the west side. 😂
SUMMARY…The severe threat will increase through the afternoon across portions of eastern Lower Michigan and immediate surrounding areas. Severe gusts are the main concern, though a couple of tornadoes or instances of large hail also cannot be ruled out. A WW issuance may be needed in the next few hours pending favorable convective trends. DISCUSSION…Adequate insolation has supported surface temperatures reaching the mid 80s F amid low 70s F dewpoints, contributing to nearly 3000 J/kg SBCAPE (per 17Z mesoanalysis, and when modifying the 12Z DTX observed sounding). However, both the mesoanalysis and the modified sounding show MLCAPE under 500 J/kg… Read more »
About to turn the page to meteorlogical fall. Feels like summer went by quickly. I look forward to the leaves coming into full color.
We are now back from our trip to Sault Ste Marie, Ontario. We had a rather good time. The city is rather small and is mostly easy to get around in. (the main street is closed for construction) The train trip was nice but long and I can now say I was on a train trip we did get to see two of the 3 waterfalls at Agawa Canyon https://waterfallsofontario.com/black-beaver-falls.php and https://lakesuperiorcircletour.info/location/bridal-veil-falls/ The weather the day of the train trip was cloudy and cool with temperatures in the low 50’s at the canyon and in the upper 60’s at the… Read more »