Yesterday, we reached 81.5° here in the valley after a morning low of 45°. It was a great day to power wash the house and porches. I do this yearly to eliminate all the algae, molds, cobwebs, bird droppings, and other nasty stuff.
Today will be another pleasant day with clouds on the increase with slight chances of rain coming back into the picture and a return to the reality of fall. Temperatures will remain mostly above normal into early November however rain chances will be above normal through at least the end of the month. With all the leaves falling this will be welcome as the woods are like a tinderbox.
Weather History
1953: An extended October warm spell culminates with record highs around 80 degrees. At Grand Rapids, it is the third consecutive day with record-high temperatures.
On October 22, 1972, Flint reports 2.4 inches of rain on the 21st and the 22nd. A three-day period of cold rain engulfed Southeast Michigan. Around 3″ of rain fell around the Flint area into the Saginaw Valley while Detroit received about 1.5″. Temperature highs were mainly in the 40s and 50s. Later October of 1972 was the 3rd coldest in Saginaw and 7th coldest in Flint and the 11th coldest in Detroit.
NWS Forecast
Forecast Discussion
- Chance of rain showers late this afternoon into Wednesday Our most recent extended stretch of warmer and dry conditions will start to come to an end this afternoon. We are watching the upper low emerging from the Central Plains with a few showers and even storms this morning over the IA and MO areas. We will see higher clouds ahead of this feature streaming in over the area through the day. The expectation remains that the upper low will continue to weaken/open up as it approaches the area later today. One thing that will be favorable with it is that a 35+ knot low level jet noses up into the area late in the day. This will help to try to touch off some showers for areas west of U.S.-131 late today. The initial dry air, along with a lack of significant moisture coming in will really limit the rainfall with this system. We will then see the main cold front approach the area toward daybreak on Wednesday. Associated with the cold front will be a fairly robust short wave that will be helping to provide a fair amount of lift immediately ahead of it. It will not be ideal though as the low level jet core will be moving away from the area, plus the short wave will be coming through during the time of the day with a min in instability. That said, the models are indicating that there may be just enough instability with the front and short wave that isolated storms could be possible. We have not added it to the forecast quite yet, but we could see that happening if the trends continue. Much cooler air will then be rushing in on Wednesday as 850 mb temps from the mid teens C this afternoon, to around 0C by later Wednesday afternoon1 - Cold Wed Night, Chance of showers Thurs night/early Friday Cold readings in the upper 20s to mid 30s are anticipated Wednesday night as surface ridging settles over the region. The high moves off quickly in progressive autumn pattern, with another shortwave and cold front arriving already by Thursday night providing the next chance of showers and perhaps a few tstms into early Friday. - Dry Weekend with Seasonal Temps then Another Warmup The weekend currently looks dry with seasonal temperatures as a large/sprawling area of sfc high pressure impacts the region. After that high pulls away and the return flow becomes established another significant warmup appears likely for early next week with high temps probably back up to at or above 70 degrees by next Tuesday.
Our big maple dropped approximately 70% of its leaves today. Getting sprinkles now.
It was a very warm late October day yesterday in fact Alpena and Sault Ste Marie set record highs for the day. It reached 81 at Alpena that broke the old record of 78 and at the Sault the high of 76 broke the old record there of 70.
Slim
Yesterday was yet another warm, sunny late October day. The official H/L was 77/51 there was no rainfall the sun was out 100% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is 58/40 the record high of 82 was set in 1953 and 1979 the coldest high of 37 was set in 1969. The record low of 23 was set in 1944 the warmest low of 60 was set in 1971, 1900. The most rainfall of 1.40” fell in 1987 the most snowfall of 0.9” fell in 1987. Last year the H/L was 53/34.
Slim