This is pretty to watch, kind of hypnotic seeing the pretty colors move from west to east. This is the CFS 850mb temperature model for north America through mid December. The grays are very cold air of -18 to -30 the purples and blues -18 to -20. The 850mb model shows temperature, wind speed and air pressure at 5000 feet above sea level.
The Climate Forecast System or Coupled Forecast System (both names abbreviated CFS) is a medium to long range numerical weather prediction and a climate model run by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to bridge weather and climate timescales.
Our weather pattern will continue with the really cold air mainly staying in Canada through mid December with the warm air just south of Michigan. This could be our pattern through the early part of January which could mean we will see shots of cold air with brief warmups. So we could have snow but it would melt off shortly after any storms. My concern would be ice events with the warmer air just south of us – the rain snow line is close. This could also mean a sloppy mix of rain and heavy wet snow.
Not going to get into a big weather lesson here, just thought it might be interesting to show some of the model data us weather people have to dig through to come up with a daily forecast. The chart above shows the various levels of forecast data we have available from ground level to the edge of space.
This week will be warmer than last week but do not expect much in the way of sunshine. There will be rain Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. However one of the most powerful and impactful storm events of the fall is likely this coming weekend. Expect winds strong enough to cause significant damage, locally heavy rainfall followed by lake effect snow showers and colder by Sunday. I will have more on this storm tomorrow.
What a great start to winter ! Boyne is already open!!!!!
http://www.boyne.com/boynemountain/skiing-riding/conditions
Get ready for a wild ride this WINTER! It is going be a very fun winter if you like SNOW!
Weird to see the grass this green and all the leaves this late in the year. Maybe the system coming in this weekend will blow the leaves off the trees.
Very surprised at the lack of snowfall so far. GRR is up to only 0.2″ for the month. I would’ve definitely expected some lake effect by now with the warm water and cold air.
And of course this could be the pattern we have for the winter. In that case it would be near average with a lot of up and downs. And at this time that is what I will go for. 37° and cloudy. Don’t expect much sun for the near term.
Slim