Be Prepared – I learned this long ago in Boy Scouts. This will be a two-day event beginning tomorrow (Thursday) from 4 pm to 7 pm Saturday. You have 24 hours to get prepared to hunker down. The Blizzard Warning covers the two-county tier inland from Lake Michigan. A Winter Storm Warning will be in effect for the next two tiers of counties to the east of the Blizzard Warning area.
...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected Friday. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 20 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Portions of southwest and west central Michigan. * WHEN...From 4 PM Thursday to 7 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible. Widespread blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions will mainly impact Friday and Saturday travel. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...While the snow will start by mid afternoon on Thursday, the strong winds will not start until Friday morning. It is then that conditions will become dangerous due to low wind chills, blowing snow, and very low visibilities. Power outages are possible.
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central and south central Michigan. * WHEN...From 4 PM Thursday to 1 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible. Widespread blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions will mainly impact Friday and Saturday travel. Power outages are possible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...While the snow will start by mid afternoon on Thursday, the strong winds will not start until Friday morning. It is then that conditions will become dangerous due to low wind chills, blowing snow, and very low visibilities. Power outages are possible.
A major winter storm will emerge into the Plains from the Rockies on Wednesday night and rapidly move into the Great Lakes on Thursday. Widespread snow is expected to develop Thursday afternoon and evening. Heavy snow will occur Thursday night and continue into Friday. A surge of wind will be added to the mix on Friday and Friday night with gusts over 40 mph likely and over 50 mph very possible. Heavy snow and winds of that magnitude set the stage for the potential of blizzard conditions. The worst of the weather should be Friday and Friday night as snow and blowing snow create whiteout/blizzard conditions. You are urged to complete travel on Thursday as conditions on Friday are expected to be treacherous to life-threatening at times.
Forecast Discussion
UPDATE Issued at 1217 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022 After coordinating with nearby offices, we are planning to issue a Winter Storm Warning for our eastern counties from Thursday evening until Saturday morning (likely 7 am). For our western CWA very likely we will issue a blizzard warning from Thursday evening through Saturday afternoon. The latest model trends over the past 3 runs of those model have stopped backing off on QPF and continue to support the idea of sustained winds in the 25 mph range with gusts to 40 mph on Friday. So the reason to have a blizzard warning over the western counties is that there would be significantly more snow during the day on Friday to blow around then there would be over our eastern counties. && .DISCUSSION...(Today through next Tuesday) Issued at 315 AM EST Wed Dec 21 2022 - Major winter storm late Thursday through Saturday - Bottom line up front... a winter storm watch remains in effect for our entire fcst area from Thursday afternoon through Saturday evening (no headline or major fcst changes with this early morning fcst issuance). An overall short to medium range guidance consensus continues to show potential for significant snow accumulations from late Thursday afternoon through Friday with blizzard conditions Friday. It is noticed though that overall medium range guidance trends the past 12-24 hours suggest that the low will track a bit further east than it looked yesterday at this time. This is particularly noticeable in the 00Z deterministic ecmwf and 00Z eps which has a 982 mb low just nw of Toronto by 12Z Fri (yesterday the ecmwf ensemble mean suggested a 980 mb sfc low would be located further nw over Lake Huron by 12Z Fri). This shift further east is significant in that it causes cold air to move into our area sooner (no pcpn type issues Thur eve). It also no longer supports a trowal this far southwest and has less qpf and less snowfall for our area while now showing potential for heavier snow over eastern lower MI in closer proximity to the sfc low. My gut feeling is that all the cold dense arctic air already pouring into the upper midwest across MN/WI/IA could force the low on a bit further east track as suggested by latest model trends which would mean potentially less synoptic snow accumulations in our area. All things considered though a consensus blend of latest short to medium range guidance still supports significant snow late Thur/Thur night through Friday. Some of our guidance is likely underdone with snowfall amounts since falling temps through the day Friday will lead to increasingly favorable snow ratios. Snow combined with very strong winds will cause blizzard conditions regardless of how much snow ultimately falls across our area. So at this time our forecast and messaging will remain very consistent with previous forecasts and we still expect a major winter storm with significant snow and blizzard conditions and scattered to potentially numerous power outages Friday into Saturday. Future shifts will need to continue to monitor guidance trends very closely in terms of low strength and track. It will make all the difference in terms of total snow accumulations and therefore just how impactful this storm becomes in our area (the difference between blizzard conditions at times Friday versus a crippling snowstorm that makes travel very difficult if not impossible for days on end if we end up with one to two feet of snow and drifts much higher than that). The furthest west 00z deterministic gfs/00z gefs ensemble low position over Saginaw Bay at 12Z Fri with trowal in our area are the solutions most conducive to highest end synoptic snow accumulations. By Saturday we expect significant impacts from cold temps and windy conditions and blowing and drifting snow. Several additional inches of lake effect snow are likely in our favored nw flow snow belt regions. However the magnitude of wind speeds Saturday will limit airmass residency time over Lake MI and carry les far inland such that all of our area will get lake effect snow showers. However the greatly dispersed nature of lake effect snow showers across our area will tend to limit accumulations in any particular location given the strong winds. Very cold thermal profiles Saturday will also result in a very fine powdery snow which will also limit potential accumulations somewhat. In the nearer term... tranquil wx will continue today with partly cloudy skies and seasonably cold temps.
Mike Sidel TWC is in Holland Michigan this storm means business….INDY
You guys wanted a white Christmas, well you will see one in a few days and I predicted this over a week ago! Incredible!
Congratulations Rocky.
Wood tv 8 just said 15 to 20+ inches of snow coming up up up they go …. Wow …INDY
Big Daddy blizzard! What a winter! Rock n roll will live forever!
For those interested today/tomorrow is the anniversary of the ice storm that hit in 2013. I’ll never forget it. Worst Ice storm I’ve ever seen.
https://www.weather.gov/media/grr/21and22DecIceStorm.pdf
Matt kirkwood just said there could be snowdrifts multiple feet high.
Some of those rural country roads may be plugged for a while.
Our local TV met said the same thing but also some areas will be bare ground, as well.
Yeah the snow will blow around a ton some people could have a huge drift against there home and have grass showing in parts of their yard. Going to be an interesting one to watch unfold
Who would have thought?
Out where I live a couple inches of snow and wind on a sunny day makes snowdrifts on our roads. I can only imagine what it will be here with this. This is the first real blizzard like weather since we moved here.
This is from the NWS Grand Rapids office. A storm like this is rare for our region ➔ First large-scale blizzard conditions to impact the region since the Groundhog’s Day Blizzard of 2011 ◆ Winds are expected to be similar to or worse than the 2011 storm statewide ◆ Snowfall amounts could be similar to or worse than the 2011 storm for some areas ➔ Impacts are not expected to rival the 1978 or 1967 blizzards at this time ➔ However, significant impacts are still expected regardless of exact snowfall amounts: So at this time this system looks to be… Read more »
I just read the Detroit NWS discussion and they still see “SEVERAL DISCREPANCIES AMONGST THE MODELS” Here is a like to the 3:45 discussion.
https://kamala.cod.edu/mi/latest.fxus63.KDTX.html
Slim
I like their summary. Basically, it’s going to be snowy, windy, and cold no matter where you live, and travel is strongly discouraged.
Winter starts in 15 minutes and as MV said this morning – Let the Games Begin.
It sounds like much of the storm will be lake effect related. Will be interesting to see the wind direction and if the snow falls further inland (and not directly along the shore). Hopefully the wind isn’t too much from the north, that brings the heaviest SW of Grand Rapids. Either way it seems like lots of snow and wind either way!
Depends on where the SLP ends up. Over lake Huron we would get more of a NW wind more to the east a better chance of a W or WNW wind. But if the winds are too strong they over the lake time will not be that great and if it is too cold then flake size will be small. Last week lake effect event had some of the best conditions for lake effect that we can get. So we will not see that kind of lake effect.
Slim
Well we now have the much anticipated Blizzard warning so now everyone has officially been “warned” I stopped at Meijer to pick up a couple of things for Christmas. In looking at how busy Meijer was I would think they would like a Blizzard warning every other week. The grocery section was very busy the merchandise area not so much. And boy the shelves are very bare. Looking at some peoples carts one would think that they plan on being snowed in for a month. I have more than enough food for more than two weeks. The longest I have… Read more »
A much warranted new thread. Thanks MV.
Blizzard Warnings up north as well from M-55 northward. The NWS is calling for even more snow up there (using feet instead of inches).
This afternoon’s forecast discussion, courtesy of Mr. Bill Marino:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=GRR&issuedby=GRR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
I have this above but here is the discussion from Detroit. Similar but some differences
https://kamala.cod.edu/mi/latest.fxus63.KDTX.html
Slim
Rock n roll will never die! What a storm! Blizzard Warning!
And you were even the one who said that this winter could be the winter we finally got a blizzard. Great prediction. Incredible! Should be a fun one
Rock on Kyle!
Here is the Latest low pressure track and it is nice to see not much of a change! We are in a good spot.
The NWS is saying 10 to 20 inches of snow! Right in line with the RDB model! Bring it!