Looking at the long range models through the 5th of January it appears we will have an extended period of bitter cold and snow with the coldest air of the season coming Christmas Day. The GFS model has been fairly consistent showing the possibility of even colder air coming towards the end of the first week of January with lots of snow from both synoptic and lake effect events. Look at all the negative temperatures in the upper Midwest!
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High pressure will provide lighter winds today, but colder temperatures and increasing clouds can be expected. Some travel impacts may develop for later Thursday into Friday morning as a wintry mix of light snow and light freezing rain impacts the area. A colder and snowier pattern will arrive around Christmas and linger through the New Year. As of now the air would be fairly dry so I am not seeing any major snow accumulations.
Mostly snow is expected north of roughly a Muskegon to Mt Pleasant line during this time with about 1-3 inches of accumulation. A corridor of light freezing rain, or mixed light snow and freezing rain, looks to set up south of this line, including GRR and LAN. We will have to keep an eye on this for winter weather advisories for the short term.
Weather History for this week:
December 17
1963: Lake effect snow buries Muskegon with a three day total of 34 inches of snow from the 16th to the 18th. This will be the snowiest December in Muskegon history with a grand total of 82.6 inches for the month.
December 18
1884: Temperatures plunge well below zero during a three day cold wave. Lansing records an all time December low of 25 below zero.
1939: Mild weather continues for the second consecutive day with highs in the 50s and overnight lows remaining above freezing
December 19
1929: Cold and snowy weather prevails with high temperatures only around 10 degrees and heavy lake effect snow. Ten inches of snow falls at Grand Rapids on this date, with a three day total of almost 20 inches from the 18th to the 20th.
1983: A massive area of arctic high pressure dominates the weather across much of North America during an historic cold wave. Grand Rapids falls to 18 degrees below zero, setting their all-time December record low.
2008: A record 10.2 inches of snow fell at Grand Rapids during one of the snowiest months on record in southwest Lower Michigan. Some of the impressive monthly snow totals are: 88.7 inches at Hart in Oceana County, 68.6 inches at Muskegon and 54.6 inches at Grand Rapids. 2008 is also the snowiest calendar year on record at Hart, with over 200 inches and at Grand Rapids with 140.7 inches for the year.
December 20
1923: A long stretch of balmy December weather continues with highs reaching the lower 50s. The low temperature for the entire month at Grand Rapids is only 18 degrees and no day has a high temperature below freezing. It is the warmest December on record for many locations, including Grand Rapids and Muskegon.
1951: Grand Rapids receives seven inches of snow during one of the snowiest months on record, with a monthly total of more than 50 inches of snow.
December 21
1967: Temperatures soared to record highs around 60 degrees across Lower Michigan on the winter solstice. A sharp cold front came through in the evening and was followed by 2 to 4 inches of snow on the following day.
1989: It is one of the coldest December days in history across Lower Michigan. The high temperature at Muskegon and Grand Rapids is only 5 above zero, the lowest maximum temperature ever recorded in the month of December at both sites.
December 22
1957: Balmy weather prevails with highs in the mid 50s. Muskegon sets a record high of 55 degrees.
2000: A long siege of arctic air and lake effect snow continues across Lower Michigan. The high temperature at Lansing is only 9 degrees with lake effect snow showers swirling. It will be the coldest December of the 20th century at Lansing.
December 23
1941: Lower Michigan is in the midst of a three day spell of mild weather with highs in the 50s from the 22nd to the 24th. The high temperature at Muskegon on this date is a record 54 degrees.
1989: Temperatures fall to record lows of 5 below zero at Muskegon and 11 below at Grand Rapids during the coldest December on record at both sites.
Today: Partly sunny, with a high near 32. North wind 5 to 8 mph.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. East southeast wind 3 to 6 mph.
Thursday: A chance of snow after 1pm, mixing with rain after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Southeast wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday Night: A chance of snow before 3am, then a chance of snow and freezing rain. Cloudy, with a low around 29. East wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Friday: A chance of freezing rain before noon, then a slight chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Northeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday Night: A chance of snow showers and sleet before 10pm, then a chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Saturday: A 30 percent chance of snow showers, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33.
Saturday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19.
Sunday: Snow showers, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 25.
Sunday Night: Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 14.
Christmas Day: Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 18.
Monday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 10.
Tuesday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 15.
Happy Merry 3-Strains GREEN Christmas ToThe ME….@ Thee YARDofCUES…..Lol…..
CUE —->
Tom Petty And The Heartbreakers – Christmas All Over Again – YouTube
▶ 4:16
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNHnK2-am9w
HURRY….Spring 2018
just around the corner Jack (of I94 to I75 and south a few hundred miles) 🙂
Spring 2018 Begins In
89
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20
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57
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09
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Stay CUEDDDDDDDD…
Spring 2018 Begins In
89
Days
20
Hours
57
Minutes
09
Seconds
What a great winter so far! Plenty of skiing so far and the arctic express is poised to slam us with lake effect SNOW! Get ready now!
December will be above average snow fall in GR by the 1st of January mark it down. INDYDOG!!
Why we talking about Novi tomorrow winter starts and Christmas it’s going to feel and look like the north pole around here yeaaaa!! INDYCOLD!!
Most people talking about weather use December 1 for the start of Winter, therefore as we move into the middle month of Winter, one can usually assume that it probably will be cold in January. In fact, it is the coldest month of the year on average. The only time it is shocking is when it is not, like the past several years. Winter is almost one third of the way gone, and most areas around here have green, bare ground.
John Dee showing no big snow synoptic snow storms for next week in today’s update for Dec 24-29. Lake effect areas are the only areas forecasted to get much.
http://johndee.com/forecasts/forecast-graphic/
Looks good to me- Plenty of lake effect, even for the GGR and SNOW country will be getting hammered! Bring on all of that COLD and SNOW! Thanks for posting the great news!
Based on recent model runs and all of them showing a very similar track, it is looking like from about 96/196 and northward will get a general 1 to 2 inch snowfall (possibly some freezing rain mixed in) tomorrow PM into Friday.
It is good to see a good discussion today now as to what kind of winter this has been so far well the facts are different than several posters think they are. Here in Grand Rapids it so far December has been a little below average temperature wise -0.7° and above average snowfall wise 18.2” 12.5” is ave for the ,month at this point.
slim
BUT to our not too far west it has been a much different story. Milwaukee December snow 2.7” average at this date 6” temp +4.4° Madison WI snow 1.5” ave 8.4” temp +4.7° Chicago snow 2” ave 4.6” temp +4.7° Rockford IL snow 1.5” ave 6.6” temp +4.7° Dubuque IA snow 1.4” ave 7.3” temp +5.5° Twin Cites snow 4.3” ave 8.0” temp -5.5° so in the region as a whole it has been little snow and much warmer than average.
Slim
The way the trough has been oriented this month set up perfectly for us to stay in the cold and get frequent snowfalls. Looks to set up that way again. Despite what some other posters think, I say we are definitely in a different pattern than we were in November/First week of December. Now the pattern change will expand to include the areas that have been left out (the places you mention above)
Thank you. Setting it straight with stats. 🙂 November was for sure below normal snowfall-wise…but November isn’t really a “winter” month in this area anyways.
GR got 31″ of snow in November back in 2014. November averages 7″ – about the same as March.
Sept-Nov. is Fall. December-February is winter. It could hit the 60s in January. Doesn’t mean it’s a Spring Month. I’m sure come February, you will be saying, “March is coming. Winter is over.”
I think you just like to troll anybody who loves winter. Not buying it here.
November is definitely a critical month to overall seasonal snowfall numbers and can often be a big snowfall producer for Michigan. Just not the last few winters where snow didn’t really begin to fall until mid December. Hence, another short winter! Whether the season continues to have below average snowfall remains to be seen for now.
Nicely said Matt. Keep up the good work!
Slim, I think your math is a little off. I’m showing 21.9″ is average December snowfall in GR. (20/31) * 21.9″ = 14.13″ average for the month at this point.
https://www.currentresults.com/Weather/Michigan/Places/grand-rapids-snowfall-totals-snow-accumulation-averages.php
That is were we should be as of today not the average for the whole month
Slim
Yeah, I get 14.13″ is where we should be as of today. Not 12.5″ that you posted.
Rock On Slim – below normal temps and above normal snowfall! Who would have thought?
Here is a webcam located here in Spring Lake Township, between Muskegon and Grand Haven. It will be a white Christmas here.
https://www.wunderground.com/webcams/Jamar123/1/show.html
Love the maps you have in your discussion, Michael!
Don’t have any cams here in Zeeland, but here’s one from near downtown Holland. No snow anywhere, and it looks like a tornado funnel in the distance!
https://www.cityofholland.com/hctv/holland-tv-skycam
I saw that! Big difference in snowpack from here in the extreme northern end of Ottawa County to the extreme southern end.
Maybe we need a tornado warning! Ha!
If Holland stays the same at Christmas then Holland would NOT have a white Christmas
slim
The facts remain that we have had a major pattern change from above normal temps to near to below normal temps and that means many more chances for SNOWSTORMS! We are in for a wild ride this winter! Bring it on!
Maybe, maybe not, but it’s impossible to call a pattern change until several months after it has actually happened. The past couple days have been very mild, but you can’t call that a major pattern change either. All we can look at is what has happened in the previous 6 to 8 months and then decide.
The past couple of days were a “break” in a pattern change that began at the beginning of December. The pattern is now getting recharged.
After the first week of December we were somewhere around 4 or 5 degrees above average.
Now, we’re a little below average. For us to go from 5 degrees above to below during the span of the month only enhances the fact we have had a pattern change. 🙂
I’ll never call a change until I can look back 6-8 months and see a definite change. Everything else is just normal ups and downs. After last week we were about -4 or -5 on the average, and now that has been wiped out the other way so we are back to about average.
The same was said in 2016 as December was cold and January began with four days in the teens. And then the long-term above average temperature pattern flipped right back and lasted pretty much all of 2017.
So for all of the talk of snow going on, the actual fact is that we have about half the snow we did last year, and last year it seemed like we hardly got any. Interesting facts.
Most don’t like the facts it seems. We are still below average for snowfall this year and well off last year. This flies in the face of most predictions which said winter was going to start early and snow was going to be big to start with the lakes so warm. Looks like another short winter this year continuing the trend for many years now.
Come on, Mookie. The winter is still young. Just because we don’t have as much as last December doesn’t mean we will have the same winter as last. Average snowfall for the month of December, depending on where you live, averages approx. 10 to 30 inches, depending on where you live. Here in the Muskegon area, we have had over 20 inches, and our average December snowfall is a little over 30. With a week and a half left of the month…cold air and most likely lake effect coming…we will most likely hit our average, if not more. I think… Read more »
You forgot November with basically no snow (averages about 7″) and the fact that GR received their first 1″ of snow extremely late this year. Any way you slice it this will be another short winter.
You also brought up Muskegon, but Muskegon averages almost 90″ of snow on the year. So they are below average too.
Climatology for today December 20th At Grand Rapids, MI
The average H/L is 33/22°
The record high is 58° in 1979 the coldest maximum is 10° in 1901
The record low is -3° in 1983 the warmest minimum is 46° in 1949
The most precip 3.85” in 1895
The most snow fall is 7.2” in 1951 the most on the ground at the start of the day 14” 1929
Last year the H/L was 30/6 and there was 8” of snow on the ground.
Slim
Not sure how much if any snow we will have on Christmas morning.(officially it be a white Christmas there has to be a 1″ snow cover at 7 AM) The chances of a white Christmas here is around 65% and that is what I now have around 65 to 75% of the ground covered is some kind of white and around 30% non snow covered.
Slim
Get ready folks we have the coldest air coming in over 2 winters … Get your winter hats out!! INDYDOG!!
If it plays out it very well will be the coldest in 2 winters.
Slim
99.9% = White Christmas for GR!
.1%….GREEN CHRISTMAS
Araon Ofseyer ZzM just said we have a chance of breaking a average going below 0 next week for day time lows .. Thats 3 times in the GR area… With a warm lk dig out !!! INDYSNOW!!
Hey Slim, what was our snow total last year at this point? If I remember right, it seems like we had a bit more snow last December.
As of this date last year 34.5″ of snow had fallen at Grand Rapids. The rest of the month seen only 2.5″ on this date last year GR had 8″ on the ground. As of yesterday GRR reported 18.2″ of snow fall and they reported 3″ on the ground. Here at my house three is still snow on the ground but ranges from around 3″ to bare on the south side of the house and on the south side of the hills to the west of me.
Slim
So far, we have about HALF the snow we had last year.
If the current forecast holds, anyone south of Grand Rapids to Lansing to Flint may have a tough time getting a white Christmas this year. I know the Detroit meteorologists have been pretty gloomy on their prospects this year.
Your trusted GFS model you show us all the time shows Detroit with 3.5 inches of snow by Monday … 1.7 inches in Fort Wayne Indiana by Monday!! Stay tuned!! INDYDOG!
“Forecast still reads rain snow mix for the bulk of the event hedging more snow across the Saginaw Valley and rain across the south.” NWS Detroit
Nice maps MV especially the time lapse snow map! It looks like winter is here baby!
Artic blast coming and a 100% chance of a white Christmas now!!! Winter storm watches For Friday and above snow fall for December who would of thought!! Rock n roll will never die!! INDYSNOW!!
You know it INDY! Rock n Roll will live forever and COLD and SNOW rules!
There will be snow on the ground as to how much it is unknown. As for Winter Storm Watch. Things could change but dont see that as of now.
Slim