We are in another extended dry period for much of SW Michigan though we have had some rain we have only measured it in tenths and hundredths of an inch at a time. Below is the drought monitor released yesterday, the really dry areas are still in the thumb area and the U.P..
We will be back in the 80s tomorrow into next week with overnight lows in the 60s bringing us back into a more summer-like pattern which may last through the end of September according to the CPC guesses. This would keep us in the upper 70s to low 80s with slightly above normal chances for rainfall.
Below is the SPC outlook for Saturday late afternoon and overnight – we are in the marginal risk area for severe weather.
We have a temp of 47.8° at 5:45 am. Yesterday’s high was a very nice 72° and the low was 49.3°. Sunrise today is at 7:18 am and sunset is at 8:01 pm.
- Gusty winds for Saturday A low level jet moves in later tonight and persists across the region into Saturday night. As surface temperatures warm up diurnally on Saturday...the mixing depth increases. This will result in strengthening gusts. Based off of Bufkit it looks like we will be able to tap into the 20 to 30 mph winds up around 2k to 3k ft. Models are in relative agreement on this scenario. - Marginal risk for severe storms Saturday night If storms could get going Saturday night...they could become organized. Bulk deep layer shear increases to over 40 knots as MU CAPE upstream in WI climbs to over 2000 J/kg late Saturday afternoon into the evening. Forecast soundings show warm temperatures through 700 mb...but very steep lapse rates developing above that as the EML advects in. A cold front will be dropping down from the northwest at night. Thus if enough lift can occur...a few storms could form with a potential for them to be severe. There could be another window for strong/severe storms on Sunday. If the front does not clear the CWA prior to any heating potential...another round of storms would be possible. Deep layer shear is still shown to be above 40 knots during the day. At this time southern parts of the CWA are at a higher risk for this to happen. - Warm temperatures over the weekend into early next week While the surface front may slip south of the CWA on Sunday...it does not stay there very long and is shown to lift north of the region on Monday. Ahead of the front 925 mb temperatures climb to above 20 deg C on Saturday. If we mix to this level...highs in the 80s would occur. While 925 mb temps dip Sunday into Monday....above normal highs are expected. We will be in the warm sector for Tuesday...which will allow for a very warm day. High temps well into the 80s are looking likely as 925 mb temps make a run at the mid 20 deg C values.