Back to a Warming Trend

We had 1.5 inches of snow fall yesterday for our meager snow total for the season.  If we add in the 8 inches from November 28 we have 9.5 inches.  Yesterday’s high was 38° before falling into the upper 20s by mid to late afternoon.  Morning lake effect cloudiness will dissipate and we will be left with a partly sunny sky due to mid and high clouds streaming in from the west. Highs today will hold in the 30s. A west wind will shift to the southwest today and increase to 10 to 20 mph.  Looking ahead our temperatures will begin a warming trend into the 40s.  Christmas is looking to be a warmish 50° with some rain.

Forecast

Weather History

1929: Cold and snowy weather prevails with high temperatures of only around 10 degrees and heavy lake-effect snow. Ten inches of snow falls at Grand Rapids on this date, with a three-day total of almost 20 inches from the 18th to the 20th.

1983: A massive area of arctic high pressure dominates the weather across much of North America during a historic cold wave. Grand Rapids falls to 18 degrees below zero, setting its all-time December record low.

2008: A record 10.2 inches of snow fell at Grand Rapids during one of the snowiest months on record in southwest Lower Michigan. Some of the impressive monthly snow totals are: 88.7 inches at Hart in Oceana County, 68.6 inches at Muskegon, and 54.6 inches at Grand Rapids. 2008 is also the snowiest calendar year on record at Hart, with over 200 inches, and at Grand Rapids with 140.7 inches for the year.

On December 19, 2008, a winter storm moved across Illinois, Indiana and Ohio on December 19th. There were numerous reports from spotters of thunder with the heaviest bursts of snowfall. Sleet mixed with the snow as far north as Flint, and freezing rain was mixed in Lenawee and Monroe Counties. Up to 5 inches of snow fell across Lenawee and Monroe. Washtenaw and Wayne counties recorded 5 to 8 inches of snow. North of 8 Mile Road, snowfall was generally 8 to 10 inches. However, there were two bands of heavier snow with 10 to 13 inches. The first band of heavier snow fell across Northern Oakland and Macomb Counties. The other band of heavier snow extended across the M-46 corridor from Saginaw and Northern Genesee Counties across to Tuscola and Sanilac Counties.

Also on December 19, 1929, a two-day snowstorm dropped 13.8 inches of snow on Detroit and 16.9 inches of snow on Saginaw! This placed the 1929 storm as the fifth heaviest snowstorm for both Detroit and Saginaw. Flint recorded 12.1 inches of snow with the storm.

U.S.A and Global Events for November 19th:

1921: The Columbia Gorge ice storm finally came to an end. In Oregon, 54 inches of snow, sleet, and glaze blocked the Columbia River Highway at The Dalles. Apart from traffic on the river itself, all transportation between Walla Walla WA and Portland, OR came to a halt. Nine trains were stopped as railroads were blocked for several days.

1930: A rare, estimated F4 tornado struck the town of Bethany, Oklahoma. Between 9:30 am and 9:58 am CST, it moved north-northeast from 3 miles west of the Oklahoma City limits, and hit the eastern part of Bethany. About 110 homes and 700 other buildings, or about a fourth of the town, were damaged or destroyed. Near the end of the damage path, 3.5 miles northeast of Wiley Post Airfield, the tornado hit the Camel Creek School. Buildings blew apart just as the students were falling to the floor and looking for shelter, and five students and a teacher were killed. A total of 23 people were killed and another 150 injured, with 77 being seriously injured. Damage estimates were listed at $500,000. Click HERE for more pictures from KOCO.com

Above is tornado damage in Bethany, Oklahoma. The image is courtesy of KOCO in Oklahoma City.

Forecast Discussion

- Dry through Wednesday

Latest radar loop shows the last of the snow showers falling apart
over the western cwa; we canceled the winter headlines a couple of
hours ago.

H8 temps will warm up today from -6c to +2c which will end the
lake effect snow and clouds and we should begin to lose the
stratocu by late morning/early afternoon, leading to some
sunshine. However, high clouds will moving toward us quickly and
any sunshine we see should diminish by late afternoon.

Surface temperatures will top out in the lower to mid 30s today
and around 40 Wednesday.

Much of the long term period will feature upper ridging. Heights
rise steadily into mid week and then remain above normal (in the 560
to 570 DM range) the remainder of the forecast period through next
Monday (Christmas Day). What this means...is that we are expecting
above normal temperatures from Thursday through Christmas Day.
Normal highs this time of year are in the lower 30s. We will be in
the 40s for highs mid week, moderating to the lower 50s on Christmas
Day. We look to be a solid 20 degrees above normal on Christmas Day.
There certainly does not look to be any winter travel concerns
around the Holiday as any precipitation in the long term would be in
the form of rain. GFS and ECMWF MOS guidance has highs of 52 and 54
respectively for Grand Rapids on Christmas Day. The record high for
the 25th is 65 degrees.

Regarding chances for precipitation...we have a weak shortwave
trough that slides into the mean ridge position on Thursday. An
additional shortwave tries to move through on Friday. There are
model differences with these weak shortwaves. Confidence in rain is
not high given the differences and the fact that the shortwave(s)
will be within the mean ridge position. Model blends and our going
forecast have small chances for precipitation Thursday night into
Friday night. A better chance for rain looks to exist on Christmas
Day when a warm front and weak low are in the Great Lakes region.
Christmas eve night through Christmas night looks to be the timing
right now for the second batch of rain forecast to move through the
area in the long term.

Bottom line...above normal temperatures and no winter weather in the
long term. The above normal temperatures will likely melt all the
snow that fell near the lakeshore yesterday. Two different chances
for rainfall in the long term...one centered around Friday the
other...Monday.