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Back in the 90’s

Back in the 90’s, the 1890’s that is. This winter season will go down as one of the warmest in much of the lower Great Lakes area. Way back in the winter of 1889/90 there was another mild winter. 1889/90 was before records were kept at Grand Rapids but they were kept at Lansing.
1890: Temperatures more like April than February prevail during one of the mildest winters on record in Lower Michigan. In fact the winter of 1889/90 temperature wise was a lot like this winter so far. November 1889 was colder than average at Lansing with a mean of 37.2 the high for that November was 58 and the low was 11 there was 11” of snow fall. The next 3 months were all warmer than average with December coming in with a mean of 36.8 there was no reported snowfall at Lansing the high for the month was 62 and the low was 14 there were 4 days of 60 or better and 8 days of 50 or better. The new year came in with highs of 54 and then 53. For January the highest reading was 63 there were 2 days in the 60’s and 8 days of 50 or better. The month only had 3.1” of snow fall. The pattern stayed the same in February with that month’s mean of 31.4. The high for February was 61 and the low was 12 there were 2 days in the 60’s and 4 days of 50 or better. There was 3.3” of snow fall. That winter March was the coldest month of the winter season with a mean of 28.0. The highest for the month was just 52 and the low was -4. There were 2 days of below zero lows just 3 days of 50 or better and just one night that it stayed above 32. There was also 9.3” of snow fall.
While the 1890’s started off on a mild note that was not the case at the end with the winter of 1898/99 have one of the biggest cold spells in US history By 1889 Grand Rapids had its weather records
1899: The greatest arctic outbreak in United States history begins a period of extreme cold in Michigan. Early in February Grand Rapids hits 15 below zero. During the next week, temperatures will fall to all time record lows across the state and much of the continental U.S.
So how was the rest of the winter of 1898/99? The mean in November 1898 at Grand Rapids was 34.7 that was some -5.3 below average. At Lansing the mean for November was 33.7 that was -5.8 There was 18.5” of snow fall at Grand Rapids and just a reported 1.2” at Lansing. For December the mean at Grand Rapids was 25.1 for a departure of -5.3 Mookie would have said that yes but the high for the month was 50 and the low was -4. At Lansing the mean was 25.0 for a departure of -4.5. Humm it looks like even then the departure from average was colder at GR than Lansing. There was 18” of snow fall at GR and 5.8” at Lansing. January was also colder than average with a mean of 21.5 at Grand Rapids for a departure of -3.3 the high that January at GR was 48 and the low was a bone chilling -20. There was 22” of snow fall at GR. Over in Lansing the mean in January 1899 was 21.8 for a departure of -2.1 once again GR is colder compered to average than Lansing. The high for the month at Lansing was 48 and the low was -14 there was just a reported 4.1” of snow fall. For the month of February 1899 the mean at Grand Rapids was 14.9 for a departure of -11.7 The high for the month was 50 and believe it or not there were 8 days with highs of 40 or better. The low for the month at Grand Rapids was -24 on the 13th and 14th there was a total of 6 nights with lows of -20 or colder and 12 nights with lows below zero. There were 2 days that did not get above zero. At Grand Rapids there was just 4.3” of snow fall reported. Over at Lansing the mean was 16.7 for a departure of -9.2 The high for the month at Lansing was 55 there were 9 days of 40 or better. The low for the month was -24. There were a total of 4 nights of -20 or colder and a total of 11 nights of below zero. There were 4 days that did not ger above zero and at Lansing there was just a trace of reported snow fall. March 1899 was also a cold month with a Grand Rapids mean of 26.9 a departure of -8.8 there was 16.0” of snow that March. At Lansing March 1899 had a mean of 27.0 for a departure of -8.2 there was a total of 25.8” of snow fall in March at Lansing.
TODAY’S WEATHER
The overnight low fell to +5 here before going up to the current readings in the mid-teens. Today should be mostly sunny with highs around 30.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2023

— FIRST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT —

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MOVE SOUTH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS POSSIBLE
AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING AT THE ONSET AND WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE LIGHT, ON THE ORDER OF
A FEW HUNDREDTHS. NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES TO SEE
SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ON SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN AS THERE IS LIFT IN A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER WITH AN
UNSATURATED DGZ. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. GIVEN
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MARGINAL AT THE ONSET AND WARMING WITH TIME, WE DO NOT SEE MUCH
IMPACT OCCURING FROM ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT OCCURS. SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW IS THEN POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAY. AGAIN, NO
ISSUES GIVEN HOW LIGHT THE PRECIP WILL BE.

— NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY —

THIS LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH
A STRONGER COLD FRONT. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE ZIPPING TO THE EAST IN
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE IS NOT ALL
THAT DEEP GIVEN THIS IS A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM, ONLY THROUGH ABOUT
10,000FT PER THE GFS. IT’S POSSIBLE WE SEE UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM, WHICH OBVIOUSLY IS NOT
MUCH. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE, WE ARE EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN
WITH FAIRLY WARM 850MB TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SURFACE
TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

— MODEL DISPARITY WITH END OF THE WORK WEEK SYSTEM —

TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW THE SYSTEM OUT IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY TIME FRAME EVOLVES. AT THIS POINT ALL THE OPERATIONAL
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS
STATES. THE DISPARITY IS HOW THE MODELS EJECT WAVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AND DEEPER WITH A LEAD WAVE WHICH
BRINGS A MATURE MID LATITUDE CYCLONE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN ARE WEAKER AND SLOWER IN THIS EVOLUTION. AT THIS
POINT WE HAVE MAINLY CHANCES POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH A PRECIP
TYPE OF RAIN FOR THE MOST PART. PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS TIME
FRAME. THE ECWMF WOULD BRING RAINFALL OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES WHICH
WOULD CERTAINLY MAKE THINGS SOGGY WITH A MELTING SNOW PACK AS
WELL.

Detailed Forecast for Grand Rapids
Today
Mostly sunny, with a high near 30. Wind chill values as low as -3. South southwest wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy, with a temperature rising to around 35 by 1am. South southwest wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.
Sunday
A slight chance of rain showers before 1pm, then a slight chance of rain and snow showers between 1pm and 4pm, then a slight chance of snow showers after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Southwest wind 11 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. West northwest wind 5 to 11 mph.
Monday
Partly sunny, with a high near 38. South southeast wind 5 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Monday Night
Showers likely after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Tuesday
A 40 percent chance of showers before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 44. Breezy.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27.
Wednesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 42.
Wednesday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35.
Thursday
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43.
Thursday Night
A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 32.
Friday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36.
Detailed Forecast for Holland
Today
Mostly sunny, with a high near 33. Wind chill values as low as zero. South southwest wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy, with a temperature rising to around 37 by 2am. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 15 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph.
Sunday
A chance of rain showers before 1pm, then a slight chance of rain and snow showers between 1pm and 4pm, then a slight chance of snow showers after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Breezy, with a southwest wind 11 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. West northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable after midnight.
Monday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Southeast wind 5 to 14 mph.
Monday Night
Showers likely, mainly after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 35. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Tuesday
A 40 percent chance of showers before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 43. Breezy.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 28.
Wednesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 41.
Wednesday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35.
Thursday
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42.
Thursday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32.
Friday
A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37.

Detailed Forecast for Lansing
Today
Mostly cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 29. Wind chill values as low as -5. South wind 13 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy, with a temperature rising to around 34 by 5am. Breezy, with a southwest wind 17 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph.
Sunday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Breezy, with a southwest wind 16 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. West wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 38. East northeast wind 5 to 11 mph becoming south southeast in the afternoon.
Monday Night
A 30 percent chance of rain after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Breezy.
Tuesday
A 30 percent chance of rain before 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 45. Breezy.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 44.
Wednesday Night
A chance of rain after 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 33.
Thursday
A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 47.
Thursday Night
A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35.
Friday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42.

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Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

Looks like Mount Washington fell to -108 for a wind chill overnight. That is the coldest wind chill recorded in the US.

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

Nice post Slim, was an interesting read!