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Averages by Decade

Weather records have been kept by the NWS office at Grand Rapids since 1892 but between 1892 and 1898 there is data that is missing. But starting in 1898 there is good data. This week I will look at the annual mean average temperature for each decade from 1900 to 2019. I also looked at the seasonal snow fall for the same decades. I have also added the years 2020 to 2023.

I will start with 1900 to 1909 the mean annual temperature for the 10-year period was 47.7. The mean snow fall was 43.7”.  The decade from 1910 to 1919 the mean was 48.0 for a increase of +0.3. That decade the average snow fall at GR was 52.2 for a increase of 4.9”. The 1920’s seen an average 10 year mean of 48.3 for another increase of 0.3°.  For snowfall the 10 year average mean  51.8” for a decrease of 0.4” In the dust bow years of the 1930’s the mean at Grand Rapids shot up to 49.8° that was an increase of +1.5° for snow fall the average in the 1930” at Grand Rapids was 56.0” for an increase of +4.2” During the 1940’s the mean temperature at Grand Rapids was 47.8° that was a drop of 2.0° from the 1930’s as for snow fall the mean for that decade was 54.6” that was a decrease of 1.4”. The 1950’s the mean temperature was 47.9 and that was just 0.1° warmer than the 1940’s BUT something changed in the 1950’s for the mean snow fall at Grand Rapids and the mean that decade increased to 77.6” and so far has held up from the lower amounts from between 1900 to 1950. In the 1960’s the mean annual temperature was 47.3 that was a drop of 0.6 form the 1950” and the annual snow fall was now up to 80”. In the 1970’s the average annual mean was 47.0° that was a decline of 0.3° from the 1960’s and became the coolest decade at Grand Rapids. The average snow fall at Grand Rapids was 78.5” In the 1980’s rapid warming started with a mean of 47.8 and that was 0.8° warner then the 70’s.  The mean average snow fall fell to 60.5” The 1980’s was not a good decade for some winter lovers. In the 1990’s the warming continue with a mean of 48.2 that was a increase of +0.4 over the 1980’s as for snow fall that increased to 75.0° The start of the 21st  century seen a mean of 48.7° or an increase of +0.5° to go along with the warmer temperatures that 10 years had a mean snow fall of 86.6” and thus the snowiest decade so far at Grand Rapids. And now for  10 years the mean from 2100 to 2019 was 49.7 and that is a whopping +1.0 warmer than the 2000’s and the average snow fall total dropped to 73.8” So while the period of 1930 to 1939 has been the warmest decade so far the last 40 years have seen a steady increase of temperatures here at Grand Rapids and the next 30 averages will go up even more. Below is a recap of the (12) 10 years means at Grand Rapids.

1900’s mean temperature 47.7 mean snow fall 43.7”

1910’s mean temperature 48.0 mean snow fall 53.7”

1920’s mean temperature 48.3 mean snow fall 51.8”

1930’s mean temperature 49.9 mean snow fall 56.0

1940’s mean temperature 47.8 mean snow fall 54.6

1950’s mean temperature 47.9 mean snow fall 77.6

1960’s mean temperature 47.3 mean snow fall 80.1

1970’s mean temperature 47.0 mean snow fall 78.5

1980’s mean temperature 47.8 mean snow fall 60.5

1990’s mean temperature 48.2 mean snow fall 75.0

2000’s mean temperature 48.7 mean snow fall 86.6

2010’s mean temperature 49.7 mean snow fall 73.8.

2010 to 2023 the mean temperature 49.9 the mean snowfall 72.8.

2020 to 2023 mean temperature 50.1 mean snowfall 70.3

As you can see this past 13 years have been one of the warmest of record here at Grand Rapids and it has been rising for the last 40 years.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 73/50 there was no rainfall the sun was out 57% of the possible time. October is starting off on the warm and dry side. For today the average H/L is 66/46 the record high of 85 was set in 1900,1922 and 1946 the coldest high of 45 was set in 1935 the record low of 29 was set in 1965 and 2004 the warmest low of 65 was set in 2013. The most rainfall of 1.72” fell in 2013. Last year the H/L was 73/60 and 1.12” of rain fell. At the current time it is clear here in MBY and 41.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
304 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2024

KEY MESSAGES

– CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT

– BREEZY SUNDAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE

– FAIR AND COOL NEXT WEEK

DISCUSSION

ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2024

– CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT

CURRENT FROST ADVISORY IS IN GOOD SHAPE AS THE US10 CORRIDOR HAS
ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE MID 30S. CAN’T EVEN RULE OUT A SPOT OR TWO
REACHING THE LOWER 30S BY DAYBREAK GIVEN CONDITIONS SUPPORTIVE OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z. RIDGING AND THE
LINGERING EFFECTS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
TODAY, ALBEIT WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

EYES THEN TURN TO TONIGHT AS A 500MB WAVE AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
MAXIMA DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. THE STRENGTH OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO CAUSE A 50 KNOT LLJ TO DEVELOP AND
TRAVERSE THE AREA.

QUESTIONS EXIST ON HOW FAR SOUTH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ALONG THIS LINE, THOUGH CAM CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POTENTIAL SOUTH TO
I96. GIVEN NOCTURNAL STABILITY, ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD BE
ELEVATED WITH A BASE NEAR 700MB ALLOWING THEM TO TAP INTO 500-1000
J/KG OF CAPE. IF STORMS DO OCCUR, ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THOUGH CHANCES ARE LOW. CAPE CONCENTRATED IN THE HGZ MEANS
ISOLATED HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THOUGH MOST SHEAR IS IN THE
LOWEST KM OR SO THANKS TO THE STRONG LLJ MEANING CLOUD LAYER SHEAR
IS WEAK.

AS FOR WIND, MIXING OF GUSTS LOOKS TO BE LIMITED GIVEN NOCTURNAL
STABILITY, HOWEVER IF A STRONG ENOUGH CORE DEVELOPS, 40-60 KNOT
WINDS BETWEEN 1KFT-3KFT MEAN GUST POTENTIAL CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED
OUT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE, EVEN WITHOUT
STORMS, GUSTS OVER 40 MPH MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE TONIGHT THANKS TO THE MIXING IN THE MARINE LAYER
SUCH AS AT LUDINGTON AND MUSKEGON.

– BREEZY SUNDAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE

SHOWERS END BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS THE FRONT QUICKLY EXITS, WITH THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND IT SUPPORTING GUSTS TO 30 MPH DURING THE
DAY. MODEL RH PROGS DO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGHING AND THE
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE STRONG GUSTS, AND RH VALUES
FALLING INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
IS POSSIBLE.

– FAIR AND COOL NEXT WEEK

HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL
BRING FROST/FREEZE THREAT TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.
LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGING CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN.

STILL NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

 

 

Detailed Forecast for Grand Rapids

Today

Sunny, with a high near 74. South southeast wind 7 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Tonight

A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 59. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Sunday

A 30 percent chance of showers before 8am. Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 71. West wind 9 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Sunday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 45. Northwest wind 6 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Monday

Sunny, with a high near 62. Light northwest wind becoming west northwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph.

Monday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 42.

Tuesday

Sunny, with a high near 63.

Tuesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 39.

Wednesday

Sunny, with a high near 64.

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 40.

Thursday

Sunny, with a high near 67.

Thursday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 47.

Friday

Sunny, with a high near 73.

 

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Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

My phone has a low at my house in the mid 30s for Wednesday morning. Bring on a frost. A frost would be nice to kill the bug that’s giving deer EHD. A family friend came up on a dead deer on their property in Allegan county likely from EHD.

Jesse (Montcalm co)
Jesse (Montcalm co)

Found 2 dead deer in my pond the past 3 weeks. Highly suspect EHD.

Rick
Rick

Maybe we will be going into a cooling trend like we did from 1900 to 1930. It is always possible that weather is cyclical maybe a 30 to 40 year swing. I remember in 1976 Newsweek proclaimed we are entering a new ice age because the mean temp averaged 47. Only time will tell.