Before I put up my winter forecast next month let’s take a look at the current CFSv2 forecast for this winter. This is the super long range model compared to the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) which goes out to a few hours, the NAM (The North American Mesoscale Forecast System) which goes out four…
Weather History for the Week October 15 1899: Muskegon hits 86 degrees for their highest October temperature on record. 1944: Cold air is firmly entrenched in Lower Michigan with record lows of 23 degrees at Grand Rapids and 25 degrees at Muskegon. October 16 1943: A snowstorm drops an inch or two of slushy snow…
Winter storm naming in the United States has been used since the mid 1700s in various ways to describe historical winter storms. These names have been coined from days of the year that the storm impacted, to noteworthy structures such as a theatre the storm had destroyed. In recent years winter storm naming has become…
I was watching the conditions deteriorate in Kalamazoo and photos coming in from Waldo Stadium as the water keep on rising yesterday morning and afternoon. (Image is by Kaytie Boomer). It was so bad pieces of the turf began to bubble up. Needless to say the home coming game was cancelled with hopes the ground…
I have been limping my way towards a winter forecast, actually trying to avoid it because of what happened last year and the uncertainty of a flip this year. So in my avoidance I bring the NWS changes in winter weather statements this year. Due to issues of non clarity and confusion on why ‘this’…
Other things to look at in a winter forecast is what is going on in space climatology and under the earth, volcanoes, etc. Research is still going on in the area of how our sun affects the climate here on earth especially in regards to sunspots. Below is an article from Britannica which sums up…
Over the past couple weeks I have been trying to show all the variables which go into a winter forecast. Today will be a discussion on the Arctic Circle and Climatology. The feature image is of my own creation… The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is a large scale mode of climate variability, also referred to as…
I am making this a new tradition at the Weather Center – once per week I will post the historical information for South West Michigan for your reading pleasure. October 8 1871: The worst wildfires in the history of the Great Lakes region occur as strong south winds combine with tinder dry conditions. The fires…
Over the past couple weeks I have been posting all the stuff that goes into a winter forecast and all the variables – Lake Michigan, Atmospheric Circulation, the possible La Nina late this fall/early winter, Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation (coming in a future post). Today I will be talking about the Pacific Decadal Oscillation….
We have doubled our rainfall total from last month (here at the station) we are now at 1.29 inches with more rain on the way. You can see that discussion and forecast on the Michigan Forecast page. Below is the five day forecast for Allegan County – this is generated by my weather station so…