We have now turned the page to August 2024. So far this meteorological summer at Grand Rapids has seen a mean of 71.0° that is a departure from average of +0.2° so this summer has been near average so far. There has been 10.61” of rainfall that is a departure from average of +2.57” The highest temperature so far is 94 on June 17th there have been just 3 days of 90 or better the average at this point of the summer is 7 so we are 4 days less than average. There have been 16 days of 85 or better the average at this point is 23 so we are 7 days less than average. So, it has been a rather wet but not really hot summer so far. The current long-range guess is that the rest of the summer will continue to be just below to near average in the temperature department.
For August at Grand Rapids, Michigan the 30 year average mean is 71.1 the month starts out with a H/L of 82.4/62.6 on the 1st and ends the month with a average H/L of 78.4/58.6 on the 31st the newer 15 year average has the average H/L starting out at 83.5/63.1 on the 1st and down to 79.3/58.8 on the 31st The 15 year average mean is 71.4 The 30 year average rainfall is 3.55” and the 15 year average is 3.65” At Grand Rapids the warmest mean for August is 77.1 set in 1947 the warmest in the last 25 years is 75.2 in 2010. The coldest mean for August at Grand Rapids is 65.0 set in 1992. In the last 25 years the coldest august was 70.5 in 2004. The wettest August at Grand Rapids is 8.46” that fell in 1987 the dryest is 0.13” way back in 1899 in more recent years August 1969 only had 0.14” of rainfall. The highest temperature for any day in August is 102 set on August 6, 1918 it reached 100 on August 3rd 1964 and on August 5th and 6th 1947. In the last 25 years the hottest day in August at Grand Rapids was 96 on August 1st, 2007. The record low for August is 39 set on August 30th, 1976. In the last 25 years the coldest low for any August is 45 set on August 31st, 2009. In the last 25 years the warmest August was in 2010 with a mean of 74.9 the highest reading that August was 93 on the 29th there were 4 days of 90 or better. The low for the month was 51 on the 27th The coolest August in the last 25 year was in 2004 with a mean of 66.1 that is -5.0 below average. The highest reading that month was 88 and the lowest reading was 46 there were 4 days with highs below 70.
So, it is now time to set back and see how August 2024 plays out.
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 88/70 there was a reported 0.05” of rainfall (here in my yard I did not receive any rain) the highest wind was 25 MPH out of the N. the sun was out 47% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is 82/63 the record high of 100 was set in 1964 the coolest high of 63 was set in 1912 the record low of 46 was set in 1912,1965 and 1966 the warmest low of 77 was set in 1930 there was a low of 78 in 1988. The most rainfall of 1.70” fell in 1916. The overnight low and current temperature here in MBY is 68.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
337 AM EDT SAT AUG 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
– WARM AND SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID WEEKEND
– OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
– TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT SAT AUG 3 2024
– WARM AND SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID WEEKEND
THE AIR MASS LEFT BEHIND IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL
STILL BE SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A CHANCE OF
SOME LOCATIONS HITTING 90 UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. DRIER AIR
AVAILABLE IN THE MID LEVELS TO MIX DOWN DURING THE DAY SHOULD AT
LEAST KNOCK DOWN DEW POINTS A LITTLE, MORE SO IN CENTRAL MICH.
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE 700-600 MB
LAYER AND AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK EXIT REGION MAY
RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN CENTRAL MICH.
– OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
TIME FRAME IN BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WHAT IS A QUASI
STATIONARY FRONT AT THAT TIME. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM INDICATE A
LOW LEVEL JET IN THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR
CONVECTION. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE BELOW 1,000 J/KG SO STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE SUB SEVERE.
MONDAY, THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA MOVING
INTO WHAT SHOULD BE INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH MOISTURE POOLED
ALONG THE FRONT. A MID LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KNOTS WILL INCREASE THE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ENOUGH TO MAKE SEVERE WEATHER A POSSIBILITY. SPC
HAS INTRODUCED A DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK AND WE AGREE WITH THAT
ASSESSMENT AT THIS POINT. BIGGEST QUESTION MARKS NOW ARE HOW WILL
CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AFFECT MONDAY’S EVOLUTION AND HOW MUCH OF
THE BETTER SHEAR WILL BE POST FRONTAL.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE WORKING
THROUGH THE AREA, PROBABLY THE TIME FRAME WITH THE GREATEST UPPER
SUPPORT. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD OFF TO OUR SOUTH FROM THE
QUAD CITIES INTO IN/OH. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED,
WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MOST MODELS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL JET AIMED AT SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH LEADS TO FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
– TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A TREND IN THE MODELS TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER IS SEEN IN MODEL DATA
ONCE THE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY MOVES SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY.
THERE IS SOME MODEL DISPARITY WITH REGARD TO SOME FEATURES MID TO
LATE WEEK AND WE FEEL THIS IS DUE TO MODEL VARIABILITY IN HOW EACH
HANDLES THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
ENSEMBLE DATA SUPPORTS MAINLY DRY WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND
AT LEAST SOME COOLING OF DAYTIME HIGHS AND LOWS. THE GFS IS MUCH
COOLER THAN THE ECMWF. GFS HAS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHEREAS THE
ECMWF IS NEAR NORMAL. LATE IN THE WEEK GFS 850MB TEMPERATURES DIP TO
+7C WHILE THE ECMWF IS HOLDING IN THE MIDDLE TEENS. BOTTOM LINE WE
ARE LOOKING AT PLEASANT WEATHER DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES, LOWER
HUMIDITY AND DRY WEATHER.
Detailed Forecast For Grand Rapids
Today
Sunny, with a high near 89. Calm wind becoming north around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 63. North northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 87. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Monday
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in the morning.
Monday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Tuesday
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 76. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 57.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 79.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 58.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 56.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 75.
Below normal temps = fantastic! Keep it rocking and rolling baby!
More near to below normal temps for August! Keep the cool trend rocking and rolling! Incredible!