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Atmospheric Battleground

Posted on by MichaelV (Otsego)

Believe it or not we are now less than three weeks away from meteorological spring.  Many may be standing with applause and cheers at this statement especially having had to deal with the roller coaster ride we have been on this winter.

Though it is to early for an accurate spring forecast I am leaning towards an early spring this year with the possibility of a more active storm season.  My Skywarn go bag has been sitting pretty much unused the past couple years due to lack of severe weather in Allegan county where I roam.  We are more of an agrarian county with no big cities – Grand Rapids has over 70000 more people than Allegan County.  I am not a city person, I enjoy the relative peace and safety of small town living.

Having went out on a limb in predicting ice events in southwest Michigan I will crawl further out on that limb and take a guess at a more active weather pattern with storms especially this spring as the atmosphere begins to warm with the subtropical jet steam setting up a battle ground over the Midwest and Great Lakes and the polar jet retreating back to its home in the Arctic.  This is simply put as there are a lot of ingredients which go into such a forecast, however I am a simple man and like simple answers.

I believe we have reached the period of transition which will slowly progress towards a mild pattern temperature wise as we get into March and April.  With this I am in agreement with Slim who was pretty much spot on with the winter forecast.  This winter has been a strange one for sure with near record high and low temperatures – with moody swings in climatology the whole season.  We will continue with these swings the rest of the month with most of the storm systems bringing mixed precipitation – as I said early this month this February may become historically the month of ice storms.

After a nice sunny day yesterday we have seen the clouds increase with the next system moving in.  After a low of 12.6° at midnight we have risen to 21.3° at 9am.  We may see a light dusting of snow this evening into tonight.  Our next system moving in late Monday night through Wednesday may be more interesting with 1 to 3 inches of snow changing to a wintry mix along the I94 corridor and 3 to 6 inches from I96 to the north followed by lake effect snows.  Yet another system will impact our weather Thursday.  It will be interesting to see if this type of pattern will follow us into early spring.

 

Category: Michigan Weather Forecast

33 thoughts on “Atmospheric Battleground”

  2. Facts – by the end of this week we will above normal for seasonal snowfall! Who knew? Let it snow, let it snow , let it snow!

  5. The snow just keeps coming. This is turning out to be a great winter! Keep on rocking!

    1. Wow!! If Rocky thinks this is a fantastic snowy winter, then I guess him and I are on the same page! It was snow free for half of December and 3/4 of January, then one week of heavy snow at the end of January that melted in three days! We are also still below average for seasonal snowfall!! So yeah, I agree with Rocky, this is a great winter, that has mostly been snowless and a lot of the time with above average temps!

  6. Check this out. This is the point forecast for Mauna Loa on the big island of Hawaii:

    This Afternoon
    Scattered snow showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 35. Strong and damaging winds, with a west wind 100 to 105 mph increasing to 105 to 110 mph. Winds could gust as high as 135 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
    Tonight
    Scattered snow showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 26. Wind chill values as low as -1. Strong and damaging winds, with a west wind 110 to 115 mph increasing to 115 to 120 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 145 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
    Monday
    Isolated snow showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 38. Wind chill values as low as -1. Strong and damaging winds, with a west wind 105 to 115 mph decreasing to 60 to 70 mph. Winds could gust as high as 145 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
    Monday Night
    Mostly clear, with a low around 28. Strong and damaging winds, with a west wind around 60 mph, with gusts as high as 75 mph.
    Tuesday
    Sunny, with a high near 38. Strong and damaging winds, with a west wind around 60 mph, with gusts as high as 75 mph

    1. I would think that after the 105 to 115 winds any winds after that would not cause much more damage.
      Slim

  8. Grand rapids Michigan is under a state of emergency for last week’s storm amazing winter storms we are having one winter for the record books …INDY..

  9. Hey Indy – this is going to end up as a great winter and probably above normal snowfall. I have been skiing and snowmobiling for about 10 weeks straight, yet the warm weather fanatics will say hardly any bad winter weather and hardly any snow! Incredible! Let it snow!

    1. Rocky lm beginning to forget what our brown grass looks like with our nice fesh snow pk looks great and smells fresh outside, what a perfect winter Sunday plenty of winter fun…My gals have had 2 days of school in the last 2 weeks that is just down right crazzy I told them may have another snow day Wednesday and Thursday be safe in TC …INDY..

  10. Great news winter lovers! Forget Spring. The latest cpc gives us below normal temps at least through the 1st week of March! As Donald trump jr would say “I love it”

  13. Hard for some to take in but winter weather advisory mon- wed for 5-7 inches of blowing snow .. Make preparations .. Stay tuned INDY..

  14. The average snow depth for GR for this Winter has been incredibly low. Obviously the first half there was next to nothing, but even recently the average on the ground has stayed below 2 inches. The short time we had a decent amount was very short lived with the rapid melt off.

  15. Spring is getting closer with every day that passes .. Days getting longer .. Enjoy your snow while you can …. Facts …………………

  16. I am up in traverse city for a few days of fun in the snow! They have tons of snow and will be receiving tons more this week! You gotta love snow country!!

  17. We had a very high pressure readings earlier today with the readings at Grand Rapids of 1046.5 (30.85)
    Slim

  18. Waiting on winter storm watches coming for west Michigan anytime now for Monday night into Tuesday any thoughts MV’S best? Lastest GFS gives GR north all snow with severe inches now !! Shuuu today’s 1-3 inches will
    be nothing compared to whats coming …Snoww maybe piling up again ..Stay tuned INDY..

  19. Early and active Spring sounds good to me as long as we’re not getting major tornadoes. The past several years have been very dull weather wise with hardly even any thunderstorms.

    1. Odd, I mentioned that fact at some point last year and you were questioning who keeps track of yearly snowfall.

      1. Funny thing Barry, but I meant seasonal snowfall for GR . The snow season starts in September and ends in May! Who would have thought?

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