Assumptions

If there is one thing I have learned in life is to not assume anything.  An assumption is a thing that is accepted as true or as certain to happen, without proof.  Proof is evidence or argument establishing or helping to establish a fact or the truth of a statement.  We can assume the forecast models for the rest of the summer are correct in saying we will be warmer than normal based on the current weather patterns and what we think they will do.  When we try to predict current patterns we look at them on a global basis.  The formation of a tropical storm in the Pacific or Atlantic can change everything and the models try to predict the change in the weather patterns.

The lack of tropical storms this summer has kept us in a warm nearly stagnate weather pattern.  Currently we have only one tropical depression in the eastern Pacific (Gilma) which we assume will head west.  Typhoon Jongdari is plaguing Japan with heavy rain and strong winds in the west Pacific.  Nothing is going on in the Atlantic due to record cooler than normal ocean temperatures in the main hurricane development zone off the coast of Africa.  There are assumptions that this will change as we get into August bringing a more active pattern as the waters warm and the dust storms from Saharan Africa cease.

Dust clouds from the African Sahara can travel thousands of miles across the Atlantic Ocean, every year and in large quantities. (feature Image) Scientists found that the average air concentrations of inhalable particles more than doubled during a major Saharan dust intrusion into Houston, Texas. The dust suspended in the wind absorbs and scatters solar radiation. Less sunlight reaches the ocean surface resulting in cooler temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, the main area where hurricanes develop. Cooler ocean temperatures mean less energy for hurricanes to form and strengthen.

So, with all these assumptions in place on which we base long range forecast models we can guess at best what is going to happen two to four weeks out.

We received .08 of an inch of rain Friday night, nothing yesterday (in Otsego).  A few showers are possible this afternoon and again Monday afternoon (less than a 30% chance). Then a better chance (less than 50%) of rain arrives Tuesday across the southern half of Lower Michigan as low pressure tracks across the Ohio Valley.  Temperatures should remain in the upper 70s to near 80° most of the week.

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