Yesterday we reached 79° which we will meet or exceed today depending on the cloud cover from a weak low pressure system meandering to our south. Chances of rain look slim at best for southwest Michigan, perhaps around 20% mainly south of Grand Rapids. Our above-normal temperatures around 80° will persist through Saturday with little or no precipitation expected.
Grand Rapids Forecast
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U.S.A and Global Events for September 21st:
1894: A late-season severe weather outbreak occurred across northwest Iowa, south central Minnesota, and southwestern Wisconsin during the late evening hours. Several communities were impacted by this outbreak with an estimated 55 to 65 deaths and in additional 300 injuries. The strongest tornado was an estimated F5, which tore through the counties of Kossuth, Hancock, Winnebago in Iowa, and Faribault in Minnesota.
1924: A couple of tornadoes, one rated F4 and the other F5, tore paths of devastation through Eau Claire, Clark, and Taylor Counties in Wisconsin. The death toll was 18 and 50 people were injured.
1938: On this day, one of the most destructive and powerful hurricanes in recorded history struck Long Island and Southern New England. This Category 3 Hurricane was traveling at 47 mph when it made landfall near Bellport, New York. This storm caused at least 600 deaths and left approximately 63,000 homeless. Click HERE for more information from the NWS Office in New York City, NY.
1989: Hurricane Hugo made landfall on the Isle of Palms, South Carolina as a Category 4 hurricane. This storm brought strong winds to many areas of South Carolina. In Downtown Charleston, sustained winds of 87 mph were reported; along with gusts of 108 mph. Total damage from this hurricane is estimated at $10 billion, including $5.2 billion in the United States. The National Weather Service office in Charleston, SC has a page dedicated to Hurricane Hugo. Click HERE for more information.
Forecast Discussion
GOES water vapor imagery reveals an upper low across Illinois this morning meandering slowly to the north. It would appear at first glance that this system and its associated rainfall would be heading in our direction for later today, but that won`t really be the case. It is very likely we`ll receive a fairly extensive mid level cloud deck in association with this system. Some weak surface based instability may develop (00z HREF) across the region even with the cloud coverage, and perhaps a localized boost in SBCAPE off Lake Michigan as a very weak lake breeze may develop later today. With a bit of forcing for ascent courtesy of the meandering upper low and PVA inching into Southwest Lower Michigan this afternoon, a few isolated showers could pop and a rumble of thunder is also possible. The likelihood of this happening at any one location is only 10%-20% at best. For Friday, whatever semblance of the upper low is left will be whittling away as upper ridging will likely win out. Some model guidance does support a low chance for a pop up shower west of US 131 during the afternoon, but this is entirely dependent on whether weak surface convergence develops near the lake/land interface. Flow may stay southeasterly even over Lake Michigan, which would mitigate this threat. There is also a low risk near and north of M-20 during the day as the last vestiges of the upper low moves through. So, most locations will stay dry today into Friday, but a few isolated showers could pop up. Guidance continues to trend drier in the long term period. A complex upper air pattern will exist with positive height anomalies continuing yet MI surrounded by upper lows. The system currently east of FL which strengthens then impacts the Mid Atlantic over the weekend drifts slowly north and eventually gets absorbed in with another upper low dropping into New England early next week. Meanwhile another upper low, now over the wrn U.S., moves to the nrn Plains for the weekend. Guidance had been previously suggesting that the nrn Plains system eventually brings better rain chances to the area early next week, but that is looking less likely now. The latest solution is for a strengthening upper high of about 588 dam to eventually set up just north of Lake Superior inbetween the two main upper lows to our east and west. At the sfc a pronounced brisk/dry easterly flow related to a Hudson Bay high becomes established by Sunday into early next week. This acts to reinforce a dry air mass over MI and even lowers our high temps into the lower 70s (which is still a bit above normal for late September).
Anyone else noticing the mosquitos are super thick? Just walking outside around here you get swarmed with them.
Hardly any mosquitos here and we have not seen rain for days!
Interesting. They are really bad here. If you look at the Storm Team 8 rainfall deficit map there is a donut hole right over southeast Ionia county over Portland and that’s spot on accurate. It’s no where near dry at my house.
The maple tree at the corner of my yard it’s getting further into color as the days go on. The trees not the same though as it was severely damaged in the storms in August and likely will come down at some point, but going to enjoy it while I can as it was the most vibrant tree in our yard. I still hear chainsaws running daily around here. The cleanup is not over for some almost a month after the widespread damage.
It certainly does not feel like we’re just nine days away from October. A few sporadic leaves have turned color, but my lawn is as green as it has been all year. I’m still needing to mow every three or four days.
Still 99% green here… probably not much change the next 2 weeks with temps in the 70s
I notice more color here in Ionia County than other places. I wonder if that’s because the core of the severe drought was centered over this area.
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 78/57. There was 0.02” of rain fall (I had 0.07”) There were 3 CDD’s the highest wind speed was 20 MPH out of the S. The sun was out 57% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is now down to 72/51 the record high of 95 was set in 2017 this is the 2nd day of heat wave of 2017 and the next 6 days will all be 90 or better. The record low of 32 was set in 1969. The record rain fall amount of 3.16” fell in 1947. Last year it was a warm 84/61.
Slim
The next week looks to be mild with just a small chance of showers. Highs will range from near 80 today before dropping down to the upper 60’s by next Wednesday lows will be mostly in the 50’s At the current time I have 58 and cloudy skies
Slim
The 2017 heatwave was brutal in the dorms at MSU. Not only did they not have A/C, but they were also really cramped with 3 students in each and no ventilation
I hadn’t realized that the tripling up in the MSU dorms has been going on for that long. MSU has no room, whereas Central has closed dorms and is down to 14k students – their lowest enrollment in 50 years.
With all the money in tuition you think they could invest in more housing and A/C. What a joke! That was just like Western Michigan University building a multi million dollar dining hall that none of the students could really care a less about while at the same time there was no AC in the dorm at western.