Another Unsettled Pattern

Another low-pressure system moves into the area today which has been a weekly pattern for the state.  We will add to the over 5 inches we have in the Otego/Plainwell area for the month, there is a small chance of a thunderstorm today.  Driving around this area down to Kalamazoo there has been little in the way of autumn color with the exception of a few maple trees.  Generally, all of the leaves are off the trees and on the ground by Halloween.  I fear working under the walnut trees because of the constant rain of walnuts falling around me.  There do seem to be fewer birds coming to the feeders stationed around my yard.

Forecast

U.S.A and Global Events for October 19th:

1996: The opening game of the World Series between the Braves and Yankees in New York was postponed by heavy rains and high wind from a major storm system affecting the East Coast, marking the third time in history that the World Series opener had been postponed. Overall, nine of the 22 games that have been canceled in Series history were scheduled in New York or Brooklyn.

2007: A total of 87 tornadoes were reported in the United States from Oct. 17-19, a new record outbreak for the month, according to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma. The outbreak also contributed to the monthly total of 105 tornado reports – the second highest for October, behind the 117 tornadoes in October 2001. Records date back to 1950.  Click HERE for more information from the Storm Prediction Center.

Forecast Discussion

Our focus in the short term will be on rainfall trends through the
period, with on and off rain showers expected through Friday.

The first batch of rain has been trying to move east over the area
last evening and this morning. The batch of rain has been slow to
overspread the area, with the embedded rain moving mostly from SSW
to NNE. There is some semblance of a warm front over the western
CWFA, with a cold front out over the lake. The main driver of the
rain has been the low level jet that has been traversing through the
area from SW to NE.

The low level jet will move NE of the area, and the cold front will
bring some of the leftover rain over the area as it weakens losing
the low level jet support. There could be a few hours where most
areas do not see rain.

We will see a increase in coverage of showers once again later this
afternoon and this evening across much of the area. This is the
result of the main upper level low currently across SE Iowa that
will lift to the NE as it opens up a bit, and takes on somewhat of a
negative tilt, enhancing the lift with the feature. In addition,
this wave comes in around peak heating, and will take advantage of
it by developing more showers.

Thunder potential looks like it will be too low to mention at this
time. Sfc based and elevated LI`s look to stay a tad positive.
Forecast soundings indicate that updraft strength will be weak, and
will likely not be high enough to create ice to help with thunder
development. Some of the showers may be locally heavy with low based
CAPE enhancing the showers a bit. This will continue through the
late evening/early overnight hours.

The trend then late tonight and through most of Friday should be a
diminishing trend. We will see the main energy shift east of the
area. Upper cyclonic flow and the cold pool aloft will remain over
the area, so one can not rule out a diurnal shower or two. The
coverage should remain limited with some short wave ridging building
in during the afternoon. Rain will approach the area right at the
end of the short term, but will be addressed in the long term
portion of the this discussion.

A negatively-tilted upper trough axis is across the Northeast CONUS
at the start of the period and cyclonic flow persists across the
Great Lakes into the weekend before it is replaced with quasi-zonal
flat ridging by Sunday into early next week. This is followed by
falling heights on Thursday as a shortwave trough axis extends south
of an upper low over Hudson Bay into the central Great Lakes by
Thursday.

The resulting sensible weather is for rain likely on Friday night
into Saturday, as cyclonic flow favors lake-enhanced rain showers
near Lake Michigan. These will diminish on Sunday as the trough
moves east and surface ridging builds in with lowering inversion
heights. After a spell of fair weather under flat ridging, return
moisture advection begins by Tuesday with rain likely by Wednesday
as a surface cold front advances south/southeast through Lower
Michigan.