Michigan Wx Michigan Wx

Another Sunny Day!

Posted on by MichaelV (Otsego)

As an update to yesterday’s post, NOAA did get an upgrade to their supercomputers last year.  They replace NOAA’s previous Cray and IBM supercomputers in Reston, Virginia, and Orlando, Florida. The computers serve as a primary and backup for the seamless transfer of operations from one system to another.  Each supercomputer operates at a speed of 12.1 petaflops, three times faster than NOAA’s former system. Coupled with NOAA’s research and development supercomputers in West Virginia, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Colorado, which have a combined capacity of 18 petaflops, the supercomputing capacity supporting NOAA’s new operational prediction and research is now 42 petaflops. (Thanks Jesse – I don’t know how I forgot about this, it was big news last year, getting old I guess).

Today will feature another sunny day.  We will have a few more clouds than we saw this weekend but nothing to worry about in terms of precipitation chances.  After our sunny start today, the weather turns more active mid- to late-week. Temperatures will be a roller coaster: climbing Monday to Wednesday, then falling Thursday to Friday which will be our most active days as we continue to watch for an interesting system to develop for that time frame.

Grand Rapids Forecast

[pdf-embedder url=”https://michigan-weather-center.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/213-grr.pdf” title=”213 grr”]

Lansing Forecast

[pdf-embedder url=”https://michigan-weather-center.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/213-lan.pdf” title=”213 lan”]

Kalamazoo Forecast

[pdf-embedder url=”https://michigan-weather-center.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/213-kzo.pdf” title=”213 kzo”]

Forecast Discussion

-- Rain showers Tue night followed by strong winds Wed and mild--

Quiet weather continues today, and even through much of Tuesday,
before the rest of the week becomes unsettled.

We stay quiet today, even with a fairly strong mid level short wave
and associated cold front coming through today. The issue with the
area not seeing much more than some clouds and maybe a brief
sprinkle with this is the definite lack of moisture. We have the
high clouds this morning above 15k ft, and we will see some low
clouds right near the sfc cold front as it comes through. These
clouds offer not nearly the amount of depth needed for any
appreciable precipitation. Ridging aloft and at the sfc then builds
in quickly this afternoon to bring back the clear skies.

As mentioned above, most of Tuesday is looking like a dry and warm
day (by February standards), before rain moves in toward evening.
This will be facilitated by the upper low that is centered near the
CA/MX border this morning. This low will get kicked out by the next
low diving into the Pacific NW.

The precipitation with this low that tracks well west of us, will be
all rain for the area as plenty of warm air out ahead of the low
will be advected overhead. In fact, it is likely many locations will
see 50+ degrees Tuesday afternoon with some sunshine before the
clouds thicken up, and rain moves in.

This does not look to be a heavy rain event for the area. It seems
that the best chance of rain Tuesday evening will be when the low
level jet noses through the area. The nose of the 60 knot low level
jet is fairly progressive around here. Then there will be another
batch of showers with the front that moves through quickly also. The
thunder threat for our area with this system is not zero, but is
quite low. Sfc and elevated lifted indices are slightly positive.

The system quickly lifts north of the area Wednesday morning, ending
the rain for the area. On the srn flank of this system will be a
fairly strong gradient that sets up over at least the southern half
of the forecast area. The models have been fairly consistent with
this, showing gusts of 40-50 mph likely on Wed. The ensemble members
are also in good agreement, with mean values for GRR around 45 mph
from the Euro ensembles. If this magnitude holds, wind advisories
will likely be needed for Wed.

-- Confidence increasing for wintry mix developing Thursday --

The system that exits the region on Wed is actually a fairly
important player with regards to the next system coming in late Thu.
What happens is the way the departing system exits, it leaves behind
it a fairly strong temperature gradient as colder air is just NW of
the area. This gradient becomes even stronger with time into
Thursday as high pressure to our North pumps in more colder air from
the NE, while the system coming in from the SW advects warmer air
aloft.

The confidence in the overall scenario is quite high that we will
have a wintry mix of precipitation over the area starting by
Thursday afternoon, and especially Thursday night. This includes
snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain. The bit of uncertainty that
still exists will be exactly where the various types end up, which
is as expected with narrow bands of different precipitation types.
This all has to do with the sfc temps, and thermal profiles in the
first few thousand feet.

The trend has been for a slight nudge for the precipitation types to
the south over the last 48 to 72 hours. We would expect that this
trend show slow down with the strong system coming in from the SW
that will meet up with the cold air from the North. It looks likely
that as we get closer to the event, at least Winter Weather
Advisories are going to be needed. It can`t be ruled out that some
watches may be needed with snow and ice thresholds potentially being
approached. Wind could also be a player with a strengthening
gradient as the low deepens.

-- Lake effect chances Friday then quieting down --

The good news is that as the system exits by Friday morning, enough
cold air will surge in to change the mixed precipitation types to
all snow by Friday morning. Some lingering synoptic snow will be
found early. Then we will transition to lake effect snow showers
closer to the lakeshore, and then taper off through Friday as
ridging builds in. We should then quiet down for next weekend.
Temperatures will start out cold, and then slowly moderate through
the weekend.
Category: Michigan Weather Forecast

36 thoughts on “Another Sunny Day!”

  1. I’ve been following the MSU shooting for the past hour. My brother was leaving IM West around 8 when it started

    1. Praying for those all on campus and those that have family & friends on campus.. it must be so nerve racking!!

  4. Looks like parts of MI will see up to a foot of snow this week and temps down into the teens! Wow just wow! No, winter is not over like some people are here are delusional about!

  5. Thank God the above normal temps will be a thing of past next week and beyond! Fantastic!

  7. All these balloons and “ufo’s” being spotted and shot down all over have made me curious. How well does anyone track all the weather balloons and other research balloons that are released daily all over the place? Does anyone really know where they are at any given time? Maybe some of these are ones being spotted? Just wondering.

    1. That’s possible, but one would think that there would be some kind of identification on weather balloons. Here is something that got my attention. Here what Gen. Glen VanHerck hinted at.
      “At least one high-ranking official won’t rule out the possibility that they could be extraterrestrial in origin.” “I’m not gonna categorize them as balloons. We’re calling them ‘objects’ for a reason,” he said. when asked about the possibility of aliens. “I haven’t ruled out anything at this point.”
      Slim

      2. I saw that too. Say it is what he is thinking I wonder what they are looking at now and why now.

      2. NWS balloons have a radiosonde which contains a mailing bag and instructions on what to do if you find one. I am doing a post on weather balloons for tomorrow.

  9. Looks like parts of Michigan could hit 60+ degrees this week. The forecast for Detroit is 54 (yesterday), 52, 53, and 63 degrees. Wow! How is this mid February?

  10. Accu(less)Weather shows us slightly below average to end the month. Highs still look above freezing, so nothing crazy cold. I think it is safe to say that we are done with any *prolonged* arctic outbreaks for the season. But not done with winter weather obviously (it is only mid-February)

  11. Well almost 3 years into the pandemic I have contracted Covid for the first time that I’m aware of. Looks like I’ll be staying home for a while.

    1. It affects everyone differently. When we got it in Nov 2020, I missed two weeks of work and my wife missed six weeks. We both got pneumonia and it was the sickest we’ve ever been. My wife got it again two months ago (the boy and I did not get it, thankfully), and she was laid up for only three days and it was like a bad cold. Get lots of rest and stay hydrated. I hope you get well soon.

    3. I had it in 2021. I ended up having to go to ER due to being dehydrated. My Dad passed away from it last February after spending almost 2 months in the hospital.
      Get lots of rest and drink as much as you can!!!

        1. Thanks everyone. I’ve been drinking lots of fluids and sleeping all day. Sorry to hear about your loss SS and sorry you and your wife mark got as sick as you did. My sister got covid in 2020 she worked right beside patients on the covid floor as a nurse. She still has a hard time smelling and tasting things to this day because of it. She can’t drink any soda expect Dr. Pepper (only one that tastes how it should). I’ve heard a lot about her experiences working that floor and know how serious it all is.

      2. SS I am so sorry to hear about your Dad. I will keep you and your family in my prayers.

  12. Some decent snows are showing up in the 10 day! What could be better! All trends show colder and snowier! Wow, just wow!

  13. It looks like I picked the Super Bowl winner! My sports predictions are almost as good as the RDB model! Incredible!

  14. 99% sunshine over the weekend with super warm temps! What could be better? Look at that extended forecast. Wow!

  15. Good morning! Yesterday was sunny and by February standards a warm day. At Grand Rapids the official H/L was 48/28. That 48 believe it or not was the 2nd warmest February 12th in recorded history at Grand Rapids (1990 and 1946 also reached 48) there was 100% of possible sunshine and there was no rain/snow. Over at Lansing their official high of 52 was good for the 4th warmest in their recorded history. Here in MBY the overnight temperature fell to 26 before rising to 33 and that 33 is the current temperature here at in my yard. For today the average H/L is 33/19 the record high for today is 58 set in 1938 and the record low of -24 was set in 1899. The -24 is the official coldest low at Grand Rapids. Looking ahead the forecasted highs in the low 50’s on Tuesday would be flirting with record highs at Grand Rapids. And then we will keep a eye on winds and a system for Thursday.
    Slim

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