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Another Spring-Like Day

We have a fairly warm 43° this morning at 6:30.  Yesterday we reached 66° with a low of 34°.  I put the Christmas lights on the house enjoying the extra warmth put off by the roof when I was crab walking along the eaves.

This is the outlook for this week from the NWS:

The weather this week will be turning more active with time. A warm and dry day today. Some afternoon and evening light rain is possible Tuesday with increasing clouds on Wednesday. A fall storm system will bring wind and rain on Thursday followed by colder weather for the end of the week and next weekend. Rain and snow showers are expected from Friday through Sunday. Some accumulations of snow are possible.


Forecast Discussion

- Quiet weather today and tonight

Today and tonight will be the last quiet weather forecast periods
before we head into a period of active weather in the Great Lakes
for much of the next 7 to 10 days. Flat ridging aloft today and
zonal flow tonight will result in dry weather. Skies will remain
mostly sunny today with increasing clouds tonight. High will reach
the 60s again today which is a solid 10 degrees above normal.

- Chance for light rain Tuesday afternoon and evening

A cold front will slide through the area dry today and tonight and
stall across southern portions of the state on Tuesday. Low
pressure sliding up this boundary will bring rain to areas near
and south of I-96 Tuesday afternoon and evening. Rainfall amounts
will be light on the order of a tenth of an inch or less in most
areas. Our pops match SREF pops...which are low...at 20-30
percent.

- Rain associated with a fall storm Wed night and Thurs

The main weather in the 7 day forecast comes from mid week on as a
fall storm gathers strength in the plains. This low will be formed
by a shortwave and jet streak that are currently out in the
Pacific in the Gulf of Alaska. The trough and jet work into the
Pacific Northwest on Tuesday and into the Plains on Wednesday. The
shortwave trough closes off and deepens with time as we head into
Thursday. The trend in the models since last night is to not have
as deep of a low. Last night the deepest the surface low got was
into the lower 980s mb. Tonight the trend as been weaker...now to
the lower 990s mb. This means less wind on Thursday, although its
still going to be windy. The deterministic runs of the ECMWF and
GFS are now quite in line with one another so confidence is
building on how things develop later this week. That said, the
system is still out over the Pacific and we will be monitoring
closely as we head through the next couple of days.

The first precipitation with this system will come in the form of
some light warm air advection rain Wednesday night. The bulk of
the rain will then come on the cold front which will largely move
through on Thursday. Rainfall does not look to be too heavy with
this system with operational model runs zeroing in on 0.25 to 0.50
amounts. There will likely be some swaths though in excess of
0.50. These values will not bring about any hydro issues
obviously.

Breezy south winds are expected on Thursday on the order of 15-30
mph with some higher gusts. The highest winds will likely come
through right behind the cold frontal passage Thursday evening.
Gusts during that time are likely to be in the 30-40 mph range
which is sub advisory.

- Active lake effect period from Friday through weekend

An active period of lake effect rain and snow sets up from Friday
through the weekend. The lake is around +12C at this point so -1C
air is game on from lake effect precipitation. We are cold enough
at 850mb for lake generated precip from Thursday evening all the
way through the weekend. Lake effect rain and snow will be common
off of the lake over Western Lower Michigan all three days. The
thermal trough comes through Friday night and Saturday where delta
T`s will be on the order of almost 20C. Moisture and lift will
also be in place through the period. A secondary shortwave dives
into the backside of the upper trough for Saturday night and
Sunday which will provide a synoptic scale boost to the lake
effect. Bottom line is it will be brisk through this period with
rain and snow showers. Given 850mb temps around -7C at times
accumulating snow is likely. We should be turning the ground white
for at least portions of Western and Central Lower Michigan. 2 and
4 inch soil temperatures yesterday morning were down to 44F, so
melting on the ground should not be significant. Especially given
air temps dropping well into the 30s if not the upper 20s in
spots.
newest oldest
Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

Beautiful November day outside. Around here the colors are finally at their peak. Some trees are starting to lose their leaves. We got our Christmas lights out today and hopefully will have them up tomorrow. Hoping the rain holds off all day tomorrow.

INDY
INDY

Winter weather advisorys this weekend?? Love early snowfalls lets keep it going through April!!! InDY…

Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

Anybody heard about a storm coming our way this week? My neighbor was telling me we are suppose to get a strong storm late this week. It is suppose to be similar to the one that the Edmund Fitzgerald down. I have read the weather is changing but nothing like that.

INDY
INDY

Yes very similar look for gal force winds rain and and snow especially north of us then some pretty good lk effect snows kicking in Sunday or Monday behind it with below normal temperatures probably the rest of November into December a white Thanksgiving maybe in the making…InDY

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

Yes definitely a big storm system coming later this week. It is comparable to the Fitzgerald storm in the sense that it is a large November low pressure system, the usual gales of November kind of storm. Although not sure if it is comparable in terms of pressure and overall strength. That one is hard to beat!

Slim

At this time is don’t look like this weeks system will be in the same category as the November 1975 and or 1998 storms. There was also a big storm on November 13 1972. At this time it don’t look like this year storm will be anywhere near the real big ones of Novembers past.
Slim

Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

Slim this is good to hear!! Thanks for the info.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

It is not supposed to be anywhere near what sank the Fitz. From this morning’s forecast discussion:

“ The trend in the models tonight is steady and consistent with last night. The low stays off to our west and bottoms out in the low 990s mb. So, a fall storm for sure, but nothing off the charts.”

Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

That is good to hear Thanks.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Another spectacular day today. Worked up a sweat working on the leaves yesterday. Our golf course is still open. I do not recall it being open past Halloween in the past.

INDY
INDY

Hey rocky and Slim im going with 90 inches of snow this year what is your predictions? InDY

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

I’m thinking we will see more lake effect than the past couple years (half of our snow is usually lake effect) so I’m going with 82.3 inches.

INDY
INDY

That sounds good especially if we can get a early start and it looks to be that way we have a nice system coming next week may give west Michigan measurements of snow wooo woo ..InDY

Slim

Grand Rapids had 46.1″ last season and 53.5 the winter before. As GR generally don’t have 3 well below average snow fall winters in a row my guess (and its just a guess) is more closer to average to just above average in the 77 to 82″ range but that is just a guess.
Slim

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

It is looking like at least 90 inches, so my official prediction is around 96 inches! Get ready!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Virtually every single leaf has fallen up here and we are ready for a rocking winter!

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Trees are finally approaching peak color as we head into mid November. The oaks just started turning but they’re still mostly green yet. And yes, the snow deficit continues to grow each day now as we once again are below average in snowfall. Seems strikingly similar to the past couple years.

Mookie
Mookie

I love the snow deficit! Once again, accumulating snow starts late this winter.

INDY
INDY

Lol this blog cracks me up on A Winter thought last of the leafs gone new snow blower gas up tracker put away winter gear out need I say more ….Let the best season of the year begin!!! No more heat to July woo woo …InDY…

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Agreed, the warm weather nuts are delusional, or so negative about winter, they will never admit when a snowstorm hits!

Mookie
Mookie

Snowstorm? What snowstorm? It’s in the 60’s and sunny today!

Mookie
Mookie

No heat til July? Ummm LOL

Mookie
Mookie

65 degrees and sunny on November 7th – wow! And more 60’s today. All this warmth really helps to shorten the colder months here in Michigan.

There may only be 2 or 3 months again this year in which we don’t see 60 degree days.

Andy W
Andy W

And so it begins, the endless talk of snow and cold events that are “a week or two out” that never materialize. You would think after two straight years of snow totals around half the normal seasonal amounts that some would learn you can’t just wishcast snowfall into existence. Yawn….wake me up in the spring after another boring winter where people get all worked up on “storms” that total 1 to 3 inches of snow. Just a little over a month now and days start getting longer and we start our nice short run to Spring!!

Slim

The overnight low here at my house was 36. The official overnight low was warmer at the airport at 41. At this time it is clear and 48 here and the last reading at GRR was 50. Yesterdays official high of 65 at Grand Rapids was one of the warmest on record. The record high of 71 was set just last year the high reached 69 in 1916, 68 in 1899, 67 in 1924 and 1915, 66 in 1945, 1975 and 2016. And then 65 yesterday it was also 65 in 1937, 1938 and 2009. All in all a very… Read more »

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Happy birthday a day late! Incredible weather to have for your birthday in November!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Enjoy the Nov warm for a few days and then watch out! A major cold front will change our pattern to cold and snow! Get ready to rock!