Looking at the NHC outlook there is nothing of note in the tropics, in the Atlantic, Eastern, or Central Pacific however I suspect things will start ramping up within the next month or so. There is a system over the southern U.S. which may drift out into the Atlantic and form a tropical depression early next week.
On a side note, I think I finally got the woodchuck living under my shed to vacate. I sliced up a couple of bars of Dial soap and threw them under the shed, they apparently don’t like the smell so they will get as far away from it as they can. The mosquito problem is under control, I used a spray that hooks up to the garden hose and doused the whole yard, and went twenty feet into the woods. Moles seem to be a big problem this year, I have used grub killer and Scotts lawn fertilizer (they don’t like the smell of the fertilizer), this just pushes them to the boundaries of untreated areas where they are flourishing so its time to put out the mole traps.
We have a chance of showers late tonight though it is only in the 20 to 30 percentile range. The heat is building to our west which we will tap into this weekend. There are air quality alerts in most of Indiana and Minnesota. Humidity will begin to ramp up to start the sweat machine going. Our best chance of rain will come on Saturday with some storms possible.
- Risk for strong/severe storms Saturday The models continue to show strengthening mid to upper level winds across the Upper Plains and Great Lakes region Saturday. This is in response to the stronger trough that tracks eastward through the Canadian Prairies and Ontario. Low level southwesterly flow maintains a very moist airmass across MI on Saturday. PWAT values are shown to be up around 2 inches. Diurnal heating should result in a very unstable airmass by afternoon...with a boundary draped across the CWA. At the same time the 0 to 6 km bulk shear values become supportive of organized convection. The upper level divergence and low level convergence and mid level height falls are shown to be somewhat limited. Will need to monitor the pattern closely as the convection between now and then could alter the setup. - One round of storms possible late tonight into Friday am Upper level divergence and low level convergence try to come together late tonight across southwest parts of the CWA to produce some showers and storms. Weak elevated instability will be around and PWAT values are shown to climb to over 1.50 inches. Forecast soundings are shown to be saturated through a fairly deep layer. Any convection should be warm topped...so rainfall may become efficient if it can get going. Some of the high res models are showing storm developing mainly after midnight. We will maintain higher pops for that region tonight. - Another round of storms possible Tuesday into Wednesday The 0 to 6 km bulk deep layer shear remains elevated during this time. Meanwhile decent mid level height falls occur as a trough dips down into the Great Lakes Region with an unstable airmass in place. This could support another round of storms some of which could end up on the strong side.