We reached 64.8° yesterday at the Weather Center and it is a warm 56° this morning at 5 am. In my humble opinion, it is time for some snow cover to blanket the ground though I noticed in my travels yesterday to Kalamazoo there are still some corn and soybean fields that are waiting to be harvested. Sadly some farmers have to work secondary jobs and harvest comes when they find the time.
The forecast through Thanksgiving doesn’t look horribly bad so far. I don’t know how many will actually be traveling though I am pretty sure it will be far less than last year. My wife and I (and cats and dog) will be having Thanksgiving dinner alone this year as we have members of the family who came down with Covid the past week or so. We have pre-existing conditions that prevent us from wanting to be around the general population and it has been a lonely nine months. Thank God for cell phones! Can you imagine what it would be like without being able to communicate?
Looking at the U.S. weather hazards map this morning it is mainly clear with only a few spots with fog. We will see another “warm” day today with temps in the 50s.
The ECMWF and GFS models continue to be in conflict with the Saturday night/Sunday storm system. The first trends further north the other south so we will have to wait until tomorrow to get a better handle on it to see where it may or may not snow. Temps will fall in the lower 40s for daytime highs through the weekend.
Here is the NWS take on Thanksgiving:
Looks to me like a near normal temp winter with above normal snowfall! Bring it on!
I posted this later in the day yesterday but the updated long range guess from the CPC came out yesterday and their guess is for a warm December but they are still holding on to a equal (near average) temperature and wetter winter season. So that said my guess is for a mild and dry winter. Anyway here is the updated CPC long range guess for December
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/index.php
And here is their guess for DJF
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1
and for JFM
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2
Like I said that should mean a warm. Dry winter.
Slim
That sounds absolutely perfect! The weather we have had recently has been just awesome, and a continued more of the same would be most welcome after everything else this year has thrown at us.
Barry you might want to look at the links as my part on a warm dry winter was sarcastic statement on the CPC winter out look. Their outlook is calling for a wet and near average winter.
Slim
Yes I did, I was referring to the December one which just continues more of what we’ve been having. Wasn’t to far back November outlooks were for cool and wet. Not so much yet.
perhaps a backloaded winter (?)
With the record warm start to November 2020 the month is now running at near record warm levels. With 11 days to go the mean at Grand Rapids is now at 47.8° IF that were to hold until the end of the month it would set a new record. Yesterdays high of 64 was the 8th warmest recorded for November 19th at Grand Rapids. The official overnight low at GRR was 53. The low here at my house was 52 at this time it is clear and 55 both here at my house and at the airport.
Slim
Bill has a nice blog entry today on the 2020 hurricane season.
https://www.woodtv.com/bills-blog-2/2020-hurricane-season/
Wow, winters in Michigan are 4 or 5 degrees warmer than they were in 1970!
https://www.mlive.com/weather/2020/11/winters-are-much-warmer-now-in-michigan-except-one-up-city.html
That is very interesting. No complaints from me.
The one location that looks to have gotten colder may not have gotten colder. Marquette is the one location that is colder than the 1970’s but this according to the NWS Marquette web site.
“in 1979, the weather office left downtown Marquette and moved to Negaunee township near what was then the actual Marquette County Airport.”
That would explain why the winters are now colder at Marquette.
Slim