Another Nice Day

We will continue our string of nice days today and tomorrow with highs in the low 80s both days before the clouds begin to move in for the weekend and the chance of rain increases.  Yesterday our high was 80° and the low 56°.  Sunrise today was 6:54, sunset tonight will be 8:42.


Forecast Discussion

-- Mainly dry weather continuing through Fri --

Latest GOES IR imagery reveals patchy cirrus over the CWA, with
mainly clear skies otherwise. With weak low-level winds provided by
a surface ridge axis positioned over the region, strong radiational
cooling will continue through daybreak. Patchy fog can be expected
this morning, particularly in low-lying areas and in places where
the ground has been wetted from recent rainfall. Any fog should
lift by 10 AM as boundary-layer mixing develops after sunrise.

The persistent mid/upper-level cutoff low over New England will
begin to lift northeastward today, resulting in modest midlevel
height rises/warming over the Great Lakes region. Daytime heating,
in conjunction with lingering boundary-layer moisture, should again
yield MLCAPE of around 400-800 J/kg today. Cannot rule-out a few
isolated showers today, mainly inland, but recent deterministic CAM
guidance shows no compelling signal for showers today.

-- Periods of rain this weekend --

A well-defined shortwave trough / vort max is currently evident in
water-vapor imagery near southern Manitoba / ND. This feature will
continue to dig southeastward today, then likely evolve into a
compact, closed midlevel low tonight. At the surface, cyclogenesis
will commence this afternoon, with a ~1008-mb surface low expected
over central MN by midday Fri. Global ensemble (EPS and GEFS) means
both indicate that this system will become nearly vertically
stacked by Fri night, then move slowly southeastward, reaching the
vicinity of northern OH by Mon afternoon.

Showers and t-storms are possible on Sat, with greater coverage of
precip expected on Sat night into Sun. Precip production will be
aided by forcing for ascent in advance of the approaching deep-layer
low amid PW approaching 1.5 inches by Sat night. Guidance
continues to suggest that surface-based instability may be present
on Sun, with MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg possible in the southern
CWA, but weak effective bulk shear will limit storm organization.
However, locally heavy rainfall is possible on Sun, given that
forecast profiles exhibit deep moisture, a tall/skinny CAPE
distribution, and a deep (~15 kft) warm-cloud layer--factors that
support efficient warm-rain processes. Moreover, weak cloud-layer
winds in the vicinity of the stacked low on Sun will favor slow
storm motion, further contributing to a risk of locally heavy
rain.

-- Mon and beyond --

The EPS mean has trended a bit faster with the progression of the
midlevel low/trough on Mon, but chance PoPs are certainly justified
on Mon as this system gradually moves eastward. The deterministic
ECMWF suggests that another shortwave trough may approach on Tue,
but this scenario is uncertain.

 

newest oldest
Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

No hot air in sight! What a summer! Incredible!

Slim

Here is the updated CPC outlook for September
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/index.php
the updated CPC outlook for meteorological fall
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1
And for the fun of it the long rage guess for meteorological winter
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=4
Lets see how this all plays out.
Slim

Slim
Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

I love the winter outlook! No warm air in sight! What a summer and now winter looks promising! Rock n roll baby!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Any aurora borealis sightings last night? I went north of town about midnight, but did see anything.

Slim
Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Thanks Slim. I don’t even know why I try. They never seem to come this far south.

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

I read an article on WOOD that said peak fall color the past 3 years has not occurred until early to mid-November. I knew it was much later than usual… but mid-November? That is almost a month behind schedule

Slim

I looked at some past pictures and not sure if it was the “peak” or not but last year I did not take any pictures of the fall color. In 2020 there was good color on October 11. in 2019 there was good color on October 23 no leaves but snow on the ground November 11. 2019 good color October 29th October 2015 there was still some color on November 3rd. It looks like it can be from mid October to early November.
Slim

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

I have a picture on my phone from October 22 near Grand Rapids (Lowell area) and there is hardly any good color. Fast foreword to November 11 I have a picture of beautiful fall color down south of Battle Creek. I would put that color in that area on the 11th at “peak” which is pretty unusual since normally by the opening day of deer gun season (November 15) the leaves are normally mostly fallen off the trees and we get our first snows in that timeframe. Good thing no early season snowfall occurred last year because with all the… Read more »

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

I always get the impression that peak color should be October 12-18 but it happens 1-3 weeks later. I like late fall colors as long as we don’t get an early snow

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

It really varies from year to year. My sister in law got married on 10/05/2001 near Gull Lake. The color was in full bloom that day and snow fell from the sky. It made for terrific wedding photos.

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

Wow that sounds really nice :O

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

Wow that’s cool to have that as early as the 5th the odds of that I’m sure are pretty small. There was one year as a kid we had snow accumulate on Halloween and I believe we had no power. Pictures of us outside in the snow with our costumes on. Can’t remember the year though.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

It melted upon contact, but it was chilly. We groomsmen draped our jackets over the shoulders of the bridesmaids in between shots.

Slim

In yet another great late summer day the official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 82/58 there was no rain fall and there was 84% of possible sunshine. The overnight low here in MBY was 58 the official low looks to be 60 at GRR at the current time it is clear and 58 here in MBY. For today the average H/L is now down to 84/61 the record high of 97 was set in 1947 the record low of 41 was set in 1943. The sun rise today is at 6:52 AM and the sun set is 8:39 PM.… Read more »