We have another 28° morning (4:30 am temp). We will see a slow warming trend over the rest of the week though we will be moisture starved until we get into next week as we see a gradual pattern change into warmer wetter conditions which are sorely needed.
Weather History for SW Michigan
1923: A very late-season winter storm dropped up to a foot of snow across Lower Michigan. Records were set for May snowfall at many places including Lansing with 11.5 inches, Grand Rapids with 5.5 inches, and Detroit with 6 inches.
1927: About 40 farm buildings are damaged or destroyed as a tornado moved from near Loomis in Isabella County, across southeast Clare County and into Gladwin County. Another tornado destroyed two barns and damaged two homes three miles west of Walker.
1902: A snowstorm drops from 1 to 6 inches of slushy snow across Lower Michigan. The four inches of snow at Muskegon is the latest measurable snow on record there
2006: A small weak tornado, determined to be a “landspout” moved through an open field near Schoolcraft in Kalamazoo County, doing no damage.
1956: A tornado hit the northeast edge of Kalamazoo, damaging 15 homes and destroying several barns.
1956: A severe weather outbreak produces tornadoes, high winds and large hail across Lower Michigan. A deadly tornado hit near Flint for the second time in three years, killing three people on the southeast side of the city. One person was killed in Gratiot County as a tornado moved between Alma and Ithaca. Muskegon was pelted with baseball-sized hail that caused thousands of dollars in damage to homes and cars.
2000: Severe weather with flash flooding, tornadoes and downburst winds hit Lower Michigan. A weak tornado moved through an open field near Gobles in Allegan County.
1930: Severe thunderstorms produced tornado and downburst damage across eastern Clinton County. Over 30 farms had wind damage and two dozen barns were destroyed. A tornado struck four miles south of St. Johns.
1980: Kalamazoo was hit by a tornado that killed five people and injured 79 others. Fifty million dollars damage was done as the tornado damaged or destroyed nearly 300 homes and over 150 businesses.
1886: A tornado injured one person and damaged several homes north of Lansing. The injury occurred as a conductor was blown from a train.
2004: A tornado struck the southeast side of Maple Rapids, destroying a silo and damaging two others. A shed was also damaged. A couple of two-by-fours were driven into the side of a pole barn. Shingles were damaged and ripped off of two homes.
1855: A tornado destroys at least one building as it moves from Jackson to Washtenaw County.
1972: A tornado caused minor damage north of Potterville in Eaton County.
Weather History for SE Michigan
On May 9, 1923, a late-season snowstorm pounded Southeast Michigan. Six inches of snow was recorded in Detroit, with areas around Flint and Saginaw receiving around a foot! Widespread damage was also reported with trees and power lines snapping under the heavy wet snow.
Also on May 9, 2000, Plymouth received 1.75-inch hail at 7:05 pm and then had winds at 69 mph at 7:33 pm, which resulted in $135,000 in property damage.
On May 10, 2003, 1-inch hail was reported in Wyandotte at 12:10 am. 3/4-inch hail was also reported in Redford and Wyandotte on this day.
On May 11, 1974, an F3 tornado moved through Livingston County at 5:31 PM, near the community of Hell. This tornado only traveled less than a mile but was responsible for one fatality, 3 destroyed houses and 15 damaged houses.
On May 12, 1956, an F4 tornado hit Genesee County killing 3 people and injuring 116. This tornado occurred just three years after the devastating Flint/Beecher tornado of June 8, 1953 and is the last killer tornado to hit Genesee County. On the same date, an F4 tornado hit southern Wayne county and was responsible for 22 injuries.
On May 13, 1912, Detroit reported a record for the latest snow accumulating an inch or more. The snow was measured at 1.5 inches.
On May 14, 1987, Oakland County was hit by an F1 tornado at 5:10 PM.
On May 15, 1942, Flint was in the middle of a hot streak from the 14th-18th when high temperatures ranged from 91-93 degrees.
Also on May 15, 2007, there were 40 severe wind and hail reports across Southeast Michigan including tennis ball size hail in Bad Axe and a measured 74 mph wind gust in Howell.
- Frost / Freeze tonight and frost Thursday night - Frost and freezing temperatures are once again expected tonight (Wednesday/Thursday morning). The upper trough that has been over this area is finally booted out to the east. In fact we end up with an upper high over us into Thursday. Winds will be light and variable tonight and tomorrow night. Skies will be mostly clear (few afternoon cumulus clouds) during the day but clear at night both tonight and tomorrow night. So tonight I would expect the model forecast lows to be to warm. Northern areas will likely will get into the 20s and central and southern area will have lows in the mid 30s in urban locations but rural locations may get below freezing once again. Thursday night is not much different. The air will be warmer to start with but dew points should still be in the upper 20s to near 30 so lows may get close to freezing once again. - Dry with warming into the weekend - With the upper through to our east we will get a slow warming for the next few days. However the polar jet does not get north of here until late in the weekend. So I would imagine we will add about 5 degrees to the high temperature each day into Sunday. There is a northern stream shortwave that comes through the area Friday into Saturday. However we still have surface high pressure and the northern stream shortwave is moisture staved. What this will do is add some mid and high clouds but that should be it. - Major pattern change next week significant rain later- We have spent the first half of May with an upper trough in the area. That is about to change. A major storm system coming off the coast of Korea yesterday will slowly cross the Pacific ocean over the next week. There are two trailing systems in close proximity to that storm too, so there is some question of how the wave lenght between these storms will impact how they come across the Pacific and then impact us. This storm will change our upper air pattern due to rossby wave interaction with the downstream upper waves. The system currently cover over 30 degrees of Latitude and 40 degrees of Longitude. The lead wave from this system will reach our west coast by this coming weekend. However it will will take until early next week to start diving a deep western trough. That of course will build an upper ridge over this area by early next week. It will likely get summer like here during that time. We will not see significant rainfall here until that rather large upper wave starts moving east. I can not imagine that happening all to fast given the size of this system. It would seem Thursday would be the earliest I could see us starting to see some rain from this storm. The first real chance for a little rain here would be Sunday into Monday but once again we have an issue with upper jet location. The departing jet segment of the current polar jet will be driving the rain event. The ECMWF keeps that jet core south Michigan as it moves out. The GFS on the other hand lifts it farther north and puts us in the jet entrance region, which would bring us some showers. My thinking is the ECMWF will turn out to be correct and the rain will mostly be south of here. Even if we could get some rain from this system, it will not have much moisture to work with anyway. The bottom line is I still think we have to wait for that large Pacific system`s upper trough to get to this area and that is more than a week away for sure.