Another Active Day 4/2

Consumers Power has most of the line damage clear in SW Michigan, with the exception of areas mainly south and east of Grand Rapids. I am sure they will be standing by throughout the state, anticipating more damage today.

SPC Forecast

A significant late-season winter storm will bring an expanding area of heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain to the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Further south, severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Plains into the southern Great Lakes. A multi-day excessive rain and flooding event will impact the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley through Saturday.

Hydrologic Outlook

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
322 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025

Weather History

1977: A tornado outbreak in southern Lower Michigan kills one person and injures about 50 others. One thunderstorm spawned two violent tornadoes in Kalamazoo and Eaton Counties. Several homes and businesses were destroyed on the southwest edge of Augusta by the first tornado. The second tornado destroyed 21 homes and 28 outbuildings as it moved from near Bellevue to Eaton Rapids. Other tornadoes hit near north of Bath in Clinton County and southeast of Dansville in Ingham County.

On April 2, 1975 a snowstorm hit Southeast Michigan and continued into the 3rd. By the time it was over, Flint had its second biggest snowstorm when 17.3 inches fell. Saginaw received 14.4 inches, making that storm the 9th biggest in Saginaw history. Even Detroit received 3.6 inches of snow from the storm.

On April 2, 1977, an F2 tornado hit Livingston County at 3:58 PM.

Also on April 2, 2010, record high temperatures were recorded across southeast Michigan including 80 at Detroit, 79 at Flint and 81 at Saginaw. This was just the start to a very warm April which was the 2nd warmest for Detroit, 5th warmest for Flint, and 3rd warmest in Saginaw.

Forecast Discussion

- Wintry Mix Into The Morning

After the initial band of warm air advection precipitation across
the area, precipitation has been slow to fill in across West
Michigan and upstream over Illinois. Dry easterly flow has helped
limit precipitation so far. However, as the surface low moves into
the Upper Great Lakes precipitation coverage should increase in the
coming hours. While light snow and freezing rain is still expected
through late morning across the current Winter Weather Advisory
area, the maximum icing is now favored to be on the order of around
0.1-0.2" given lessened QPF. Will leave the current advisory in
place given the continued risk for light freezing rain/snow.

- Conditional Severe Weather Threat Today

The forecast as far as severe weather potential today remains
complicated by questions on the extent of atmospheric recovery.

The first portion of the convective event is this morning as
elevated instability makes its way into the forecast area. The
primary concern with this portion of the event given training of
heavier embedded cells. This may be enough for minor poor drainage
and river flooding, especially if heavier cells repeatedly train
over the same area. See the hydrology section for more details.
Given ambient deep layer shear exceeding 50 knots, small hail is
possible in any storms. The setup is favorable for gravity wave
associated convection (GWAC) so a brief gust from an elevated storm
is not off the table, however predicting these sort of events is
challenging with any certainty before the event so confidence in
gusts occuring is low.

Attention then turns to the afternoon where a conditional risk of
severe weather exists, depending on where atmospheric recovery can
occur. What this will hinge on is whether morning convection can
suppress the northward motion of the warm front this afternoon and
evening. The ambient environment is very dynamic given 50 plus knots
of deep layer shear and over 400 m2/s2 of 0-3km SRH. However, this
can only be fully realized by the storm if sufficient instability
exists for the storm to become surface based.

What we know is a line of convection is expected to cross the CWA in
the late afternoon and evening hours. The impacts of this line
depends on the northward extent of the warm front and surface based
instability. For areas that do not destabilize enough for surface
based storms, convection will remain elevated with a lower severe
weather threat, For areas that do see clouds and precipitation clear
out later today and destabilize, the full effects of the very strong
ambient winds will be felt by the storms with damaging winds,
possibly excess of 70 mph, tornadoes, and large hail possible.

The primary forecast challenge is where will destabilization occur?
A perusal of 00z guidance still suggests where is not certain, and
is dependent on outflow from morning convection and cloud cover.
Consensus is near and south of I94 has the best chance to see
surface based storms and the associated severe weather. However,
some solutions such as the NAM suite do bring surface based storms
and the best severe threat into the I96 corridor.

It`s important to note that while the ceiling of the event is
elevated given the strong winds aloft, the questions of
destabilization means who sees severe weather is uncertain and some
or all of the area may not see severe storms today. Close monitoring
of cloud cover trends, precipitation trends, and atmospheric
recovery will be needed through the day to fine tune the exact
threat area.

- Rain Showers This Weekend

Thursday and Friday remain dry across the area as ridging dominates
the forecast. We then see a low pressure system cross the Ohio
Valley Friday Night into Sunday with the rain shield reaching into
lower Michigan. Widespread rainfall is likely, with areas near and
south of I96 having a 30-50 percent chance of exceeding 1 inch of
rainfall. It will be mild with highs in the 50s through Saturday
falling into the 40s by Sunday.

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