After the Storm 3/31

Late afternoon storms added a lot of excitement yesterday. I estimated a 55 mph wind in Otsego. We never lost power, but they did in Plainwell. Lots of branches and large trees were pushed over. The old Plainwell paper mill lost part of its roof and walls. Now, sadly, they will probably have to take the wrecking ball to it. I worked there in the late 1970s as a machine operator.

Here is my RadarScope run of the storm as it moved out of our area:

Peak Wind Gusts

There were possible pop-up tornados around the area more information will be available after the NWS investigation today.

Wednesday Storms Possible

Weather History

1923: March goes out like a cold lion with record lows in the single numbers and lake effect snow showers.

2006: A tornado hits a few miles east of Jackson, taking down hundreds of trees and causing minor structural damage in the town of Leoni.

On March 31, 2014 an extremely narrow band of accumulating snow developed just south and southeast of Saginaw Bay. The town of Caro measured 8 inches.

Also on March 31, 2014, Flint finished the month with an average temperature of 26.0 degrees, making it the 2nd coldest March on record for the area. This is in spite of a balmy high of 61 degrees on the last day of the month. Detroit and Saginaw also finished the month with their 11th and 5th coldest Marches respectively.

Also on March 31, 2006, severe weather broke out across much of Southeast Michigan. There were over 30 severe hail and severe wind/damage reports. Some of the one-inch diameter hail in southern Genesee County piled up to several inches.

Your Local Forecast

Forecast Discussion

- Wintry Mix Likely Tuesday Night

After dry conditions through Tuesday Evening, precipitation returns
Tuesday night as a strong low pressure system moves into the region.
This system is the primary forecast concern for the seven day
window. Thermal profiles suggest precipitation starting as all snow,
possibly mixing with rain at onset near I94, changing over to rain
by daybreak south of I96. North of I96 where surface colder air
holds on a bit longer, accumulating snow and freezing rain look
likely, lingering longest across the higher terrain of Central
Lower. Amounts will need to be fine-tuned in the coming packages but
travel impacts are possible, especially if freezing rain occurs.

- Severe Weather Possible Wednesday

Substantial advection of warm and moist air occurs going into the
day on Wednesday with temperatures forecast to reach the sixties and
surface dewpoints near sixty by the afternoon and evening hours.
That will combine with a very dynamic system featuring a 500mb jet
of over 100 knots and 850mb jet exceeding 50 knots. Destabilization
later in the day on top of this already very strong wind field
brings concerns for severe thunderstorms. While severe potential is
dependent on the extent of destabilization (which depends on
timing and northward warm frontal extent), a significant severe
weather event is possible given the background kinematic profile.
The time of interest would be Wednesday afternoon into the early
overnight hours as a surface front/trough crosses through the
midwest. All hazards appear on the table at this time given
forecast hodographs and thermal profiles as well as concerns for
heavy rainfall. The greatest concern is for areas near and south
of I96 where the best surface-based instability is expected, which
aligns well with the current Enhanced (Level 3/5) risk from the
Storm Prediction Center.

- Chance of Rain Showers This Weekend

The weather gets notably quieter Thursday into the weekend as the
aforementioned low departs. The main notable weather at this point
is the potential for light rain showers Friday and this weekend as
an upper-trough swings through the region, and a low crosses the
Ohio Valley, mainly south of I96. Given diverging solutions in the
large scale synoptic pattern precipitation chances are 40 percent or
less. Highs will be mild in the 50s.