Yesterday we reached 82° for our high temperature and a low of 62°. Humidity will continue to increase through today and the weekend with temperatures in the mid-80s tomorrow and near 90 on Sunday and Monday. A few popup showers and drenching storms are possible around the area, the best chance of a more widespread rain being Sunday night when there is a marginal risk for severe weather.
SPC Outlook for Sunday Night
NWS Forecast
Friday
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 2 pm and 5 pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Light south-southeast wind.
Friday Night
A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8 pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. Calm wind.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Calm wind becoming south-southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. South wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Sunday
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8 am. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 90.
Sunday Night
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 71.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 89.
Monday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8 pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 69.
Tuesday
There is a chance of showers after 2 pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83.
Tuesday Night
A chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 60.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 77.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 55.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.
Weather History
1966: A tornado destroyed a barn at Coopersville in Ottawa County.
1978: Cool weather prevails with low temperatures in the 40s. Muskegon falls to 45 degrees, for a record low for the date.
On July 12, 1966, Detroit had a record amount of precipitation fall in 24 hours. They received 3.19 inches.
Forecast Discussion
- Scattered showers/storms possible again this afternoon/evening Somewhat of a repeat of yesterday afternoon and evening is possible today. An upper trough will be in place to start today, however it will slowly be pivoting to the east as we work through the day. Enough instability will occur again today through a combination of cool temperatures in the mid levels and July sunshine providing steep low level lapse rates. MAx surface based CAPE this afternoon is actually forecast to eclipse 2,000 j/kg via the HREF. 4 hour max reflectivity tells the story with scattered convection occurring area wide this afternoon and evening. The convection will likely focus 1) on the lake breeze front and 2) in the northeast CWA closer to the upper trough center where the HREF has the highest neighborhood probabilities of higher DBZs. Deep layer shear of only 20 knots and zero updraft helicity swaths indicates the severe threat is almost non existent. The precipitation should come to an end in the late evening as we lose instability. There is a signal late tonight once again especially towards I-94 in our Consensus of Short Term models for fog formation. It is not showing stratus, but shallow fog. - Mid summer heat/humidity/storm chances Saturday through Monday As discussed yesterday a ridge rider pattern exists between Saturday and Monday which is indicative of deep summer featuring heat, humidity and occasional chances for strong thunderstorm complexes. Not much change in tonight`s models so confidence is high in this pattern setting up. Both the GFS and the ECMWF show shortwaves rolling southeast in the northwest upper flow with the look of being convectively driven. Several rounds of showers and storms are possible during this 3 day period. The most likely time frames will be 1) Saturday night into Sunday morning and 2) Sunday night into Monday morning. We will be near the nose of the nocturnal 850mb low level jet both periods which is a major driver of our thunderstorm chances. A combination of strong instability in excess of 3000 j/kg and deep layer shear occasionally hitting 40 knots make severe weather very plausible. We are in a SPC marginal outlook for Sunday, but envision this increasing as we get closer in time. - Cooling off mid next week with an upper trough We cool off in the mid week time frame. Heat Sunday into Monday will likely have us in the 90s, while we cool back into the 70s for Wednesday and Thursday. The GFS has a +24C 850mb temperature Monday midday which is a fairly rare level for us. By Wednesday night the GFS is down to +8C overhead. A pretty big shift in temperatures is due to a pattern change aloft from ridging to a developing deep trough overhead. Right now we have a dry forecast for Wednesday and Thursday, but could see some diurnal activity possibly due to cool mid levels.
The storm on radar just sprung up over the house. Low, black clouds, breeze…not doing anything. Plenty of yellow and red on radar.
Ada – started the day with a heavy shower passing overhead. Everything soaked.
The latest CPC temp outlook looks GREAT! Nothing like near to below normal temps in July! Incredible!
Thundering at my house this morning
Heard a couple rumbles too
Beautiful way to start the morning a full rainbow
Tried to do a double got about halfway there….
We are now a third of the way through July and the mean so far at Grand Rapids is 70.3 that is a departure of -2.4 the high so far has been just 84 on the 8th and the low was 47 on the 1st there has been 2.42” of rainfall so far. For the summer season so far there have been just 3 days of 90 or better so it has not been really all that warm so far this summer.
Slim
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 83/60 there was 0.31” of rainfall. The sun was out 36% of the time. For today the average H/L is 83/63 the record high of 106 was set in 1936 the coldest high of 71 was set in 1917. The record low of 42 was set in 1898 the warmest low of 74 was set in 1936. The record rainfall of 1.68” was set just last year with a high of 77 and a low of 57.
Slim
While the official rainfall amount yesterday was 0.31” once again I had much less with just 0.09” falling here in a short shower around 6:30 yesterday afternoon. The overnight low here was 65 and it is now 66 with mostly cloudy skies.
Slim
Impressive rainfall totals. As the final sentence says – Get ready to start mowing grass and swatting mosquitoes.
https://www.mlive.com/weather/2024/07/big-michigan-rain-storm-totals-show-a-whopping-7-inches-at-tops.html