First and foremost – get out there and vote if you haven’t already. It has always been my opinion if you don’t vote you don’t have the right to whine about how any of our congressmen or the president is performing. During this strange year, your vote matters regardless of who you vote for. I voted last month in absentia because I didn’t want to go out in public during the Covid outbreak.
Keep in mind this is a weather blog and we don’t need to start a debate on who you voted for.
How Weather Affects Elections
It has been determined that weather can affect major national elections in more than one way. First, we will deal with the turnout. Historically, the highest turnout for a midterm election was in 1966 when 49 percent of eligible voters cast ballots.
Precipitation
A study back in 2007 by three professors Brad T. Gomez from the University of Georgia Thomas G. Hansford from the University of California, Merced and George A. Krause from the University of Pittsburgh studied the relationship between bad weather and voter turnout.
They found a relationship with rainfall. An inch of rain tended to decrease turnout by 0.9 percent, with another 1 percent for each additional inch of rain. The study consisted of data going back to 1948 but it only included presidential elections. Turnout was only reduced by 0.5 percent for each inch of snow.
Republican candidates benefited from the inclement weather as each received 2.5 percent more votes for each inch of rain.
That is not always the case, however. Looking at two very close presidential elections, it seems that the weather was a significant factor in the outcome. In 1960, heavy rain fell across rural areas of Illinois, while in Chicago, rain arrived late and amounts were light. At the time, rural Illinois was more Republican while Chicago was heavily Democrat. If the weather had been better statewide, Richard Nixon could have won the electoral votes for the state.
In the 2000 presidential election, the prevailing conclusion held true, and it most likely had a negative effect on the Democratic candidate Al Gore.
The weather was rainy in the Florida Panhandle and since the battle over the electoral votes there was intense, many pundits thought that turnout from voters who would have voted for Al Gore was muted. George Bush won the state by only a few thousand votes.
Regarding age, significant rainfall reduced voter turnout the most in two groups (those 18 to 24 and over 65).
Temperature
A study published in the open access journal Frontiers in Psychology found a connection between changes in temperature and voter turnout in the United States. This study observed data back to 1960 and only included presidential elections.
They found that for every 10C increase in temperature, voter turnout increased by 1.4%. Higher turnout generally favors Democrats. (0°C × 9/5) + 32 = 32°F
To be fair, the study found that rise in temperature motivated some citizens to cast their vote for the smaller political parties (Greens, Libertarians, Independents). However, warmer temperatures was a stronger motivator for some citizens to vote for the government currently in power.
It will be mostly sunny and less windy today, with high temperatures in the mid-50s to near 60. The further south you are the warmer it will be. Temperatures tomorrow through early next week look to warm above 60 degrees each day, with locations along and south of I-96 possibly reaching 70 by Sunday. Dry weather is expected through the weekend.
It is a beautiful November day outside. I too voted by absentee ballot for the same reasons. It is so nice and sunny out I would like it like this all winter. lol!!
Wow! 64 degrees in GR. WOOD had only 58 for today. Whoops!
Get ready for the November heat wave! I guess two bloggers on here must be on vacation…
In the last 70 years it has reached 70 or better 23 times in November the last 70 years.
Slim
You’re missing the point. How many times in November has GR been 60-70 degrees for 6 or 7 days in a row? I would guess very few.
More great facts thanks again Slim …INDY
Wow, what an incredible stretch of weather we have coming up by November “standards”! 60’s and maybe 70’s along with clear and sunny skies at a time when it’s usually cloudy, dark, and blah. Let’s keep this mild and snowless pattern going!
Looks to be very nice weather for Election Day. Much of the nation is under high pressure, except rainy in the pacific northwest as per usual. With the record early vote, this may be the biggest turnout ever – which makes me very happy. Have a great day, everyone.