Winter Weather Update

posted in: Michigan Weather Forecast | 22

Now that we are into meteorological winter with chances of above normal temperatures and little or no snow predicted through the next couple weeks, we have to keep in mind as the polar vortex moves north it will have a chance to build up some really cold air as it lurks about in Canada, Russia and northern Eurasia.  It is possible we could see another disruption of the vortex towards the end of the month on into January.  The question is will we see a white Christmas?

At this point a relatively mild pattern could exist through the week preceding Christmas and snowfall looks to be only a couple inches at best.  We are looking at a system moving in late next week which will bring rain into the area – this will mark the beginning of a more active weather pattern.  We will have to watch out for the week after next as the rain snow lines are blurred at this point as a couple systems move into Michigan however it is my thinking we will see more rain than snow.

Temperatures will be slightly above normal for December averages which is the upper 30s, which as I stated last week brings me to wonder about the possibility of an ice event sometime this month.  Not saying it is going to happen however it is something to think about.

Regarding a white Christmas, at this point it is a close call – with the cold building in the polar regions as it retreats from the U.S. over the next couple weeks it is my thinking the polar vortex will break loose once again towards the end of the month on into January which could bring us our coldest, snowiest month of winter.  Keep in mind these are only guesses and, as seen in the past the weather has a habit of proving us humans and computers wrong.  Long range forecasting can be a humbling experience.

Below are the GFS models through the 22nd – we see a quiet period through about midweek next week until we see out next system moving in.  I think the snow forecasted will be mainly rain.  The second graphic is the snow forecast through the same period.


Today we will see some snow showers off and on through Friday.  Most of the snow has occurred north of I96 this morning.  As of 8am there is a band of snow forming across Allegan County.  We are not expecting more than an inch or so.  Beginning Saturday we will be seeing an extend period of sunny days right on through next Tuesday with temps rising to the mid 30s which will melt off any snow we have on the ground.


 

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Jeff(Portland)MookieBarry in ZeelandMark(East Lansing)INDY Recent comment authors
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Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Get ready – more cold and snow is coming and the above normal snowfall continues! Who would have thought?

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Then why is it one week into December we are below average for snowfall for the month?

Jeff(Portland)
Jeff(Portland)

Let the snow drought commerce. It may be cold, but where is all the snow. Lol !!!!!!

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Love this snow map which shows the entire bottom half of Michigan SNOW FREE!

comment image

Mookie
Mookie

Just wait until Sunday night when all the states south of us get a big snowstorm that will completely miss us again!

INDY
INDY

Misses us again? Ohh that’s right you been on vacation since October 14th next time take berry with you lol! INDY!!

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

What happened with your call of a snow storm this past Tuesday? Oh wait, the sun was out the whole day. I think you need a vacation with your storm forecasting. 1 for 4 or 5 is not much to brag about.

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

In case you forgot….

INDY
Some thoughts coming next week around Tuesday a big storm coming it will open the flood gates up for artic air Rocky Slim MV thoughts? …All of December looks below normal and above normal in snowfall this could be one December to remember get some more wood cutt! IWS is tracking it all stay tuned… INDYSTORM!

ReplyNovember 27, 2018 12:54 pm

Jeff(Portland)
Jeff(Portland)

LOL!

INDY
INDY

Polar vortex setting in just after Christmas “Matt Kirkwood” Wood tv 8 weather…Great Scott….INDY!!

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Looks like a very mild 3 to 4 weeks up to that point. After that, like Michael stated above, it’s just a wild guess what happens then.

Mookie
Mookie

In other words, get ready for basically not much snow in December! Can you say green Christmas?

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Snapped a quick pic of the snow depth in our yard. 11.5 inches??

http://tinypic.com/usermedia.php?uo=jJm7XUcEEIyRddE75of5DYh4l5k2TGxc#.XAlCToxOmhA

Mookie
Mookie

LOL That’s how Rocky and Indy measure snow anyway.

Jeff(Portland)
Jeff(Portland)

Lol !!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

I have a fresh 1.5 inches of snow on the ground from last night! I see no real warm up on the horizon. Maybe temps in the mid 30’s by the middle of next week!

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

I think you’re looking at the wrong horizon:

comment image

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/

Mark(East Lansing)
Mark(East Lansing)

What little snow fell yesterday is gone. Completely green here.

INDY
INDY

Storm pattern still over Michigan looks wonderful, loving the snow cover this morning yes the ground is covered lol! Seeing highs in the 30″s the next 7 days still waiting on that warm like pattern supposedly coming that’s bringing a few bloggers back Great Scott!!…. Enjoy your Thursday!! INDY..

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

They are so desperate for a big warm up they are clammoring for temps in the mid 30’s which is near normal! Incredible!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

We are still way above normal for our seasonal snowfall! We are still on track for a great winter season and near to above normal snowfall! Incredible!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Wow the cold and snow just keeps coming. More fresh snow on the ground and more on the way! Who would have thought?