Now that we are into meteorological winter with chances of above normal temperatures and little or no snow predicted through the next couple weeks, we have to keep in mind as the polar vortex moves north it will have a chance to build up some really cold air as it lurks about in Canada, Russia and northern Eurasia. It is possible we could see another disruption of the vortex towards the end of the month on into January. The question is will we see a white Christmas?
At this point a relatively mild pattern could exist through the week preceding Christmas and snowfall looks to be only a couple inches at best. We are looking at a system moving in late next week which will bring rain into the area – this will mark the beginning of a more active weather pattern. We will have to watch out for the week after next as the rain snow lines are blurred at this point as a couple systems move into Michigan however it is my thinking we will see more rain than snow.
Temperatures will be slightly above normal for December averages which is the upper 30s, which as I stated last week brings me to wonder about the possibility of an ice event sometime this month. Not saying it is going to happen however it is something to think about.
Regarding a white Christmas, at this point it is a close call – with the cold building in the polar regions as it retreats from the U.S. over the next couple weeks it is my thinking the polar vortex will break loose once again towards the end of the month on into January which could bring us our coldest, snowiest month of winter. Keep in mind these are only guesses and, as seen in the past the weather has a habit of proving us humans and computers wrong. Long range forecasting can be a humbling experience.
Below are the GFS models through the 22nd – we see a quiet period through about midweek next week until we see out next system moving in. I think the snow forecasted will be mainly rain. The second graphic is the snow forecast through the same period.
Today we will see some snow showers off and on through Friday. Most of the snow has occurred north of I96 this morning. As of 8am there is a band of snow forming across Allegan County. We are not expecting more than an inch or so. Beginning Saturday we will be seeing an extend period of sunny days right on through next Tuesday with temps rising to the mid 30s which will melt off any snow we have on the ground.
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