Winter Weather Advisory

According to model predictions the area between Grand Rapids to Kalamazoo and eastward to Lansing appear to be in the sweet spot for heavy wet snow tonight into Monday morning.  This mornings NAM, NAM NEST and GFS are all consistent with over six inches of heavy wet snow.  With lake effect mixed in lakeshore counties may pick up close to a foot through Tuesday.  These are predictions based on a 10:1 ratio so amounts will vary.  Below are the NAM and GFS guesses for snow accumulations from the system baring down on us.  (click to enlarge the images).


 

The advisory begins at 7pm this evening running through 1pm tomorrow.  I won’t be surprised if a warning is released later today as the track of the storm becomes more apparent.  This is the latest morning discussion from the NWS.

- Confidence is now moderate to high in the placement of the snow
  accumulations axis along the I-96 corridor which is further
  south than previous forecast packages. However, a small shift
  further south is still possible.
- Confidence is moderate in snowfall amounts of 3-5" with a
  localized band or two of 6-9".
- The timing of the heaviest snow has shifted later, with the most
  impactful weather now expected between 10 PM Sunday and 1 PM
  Monday. An even later arrival time is possible, encompassing
  both the Monday morning and evening commutes.
- Confidence is high in a period of lake effect snow on Monday
  night through Wednesday morning, with the heaviest on Tuesday
  west of US-131.


newest oldest
Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

No school! They called it after our high schooler was already in the shower, but she is just fine with going back to bed.

Slim

There is light snow falling here NW GR. There is about a half inch on the grass, the road is just wet. The temperature here is 33° (32.5)

Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

32 by me

Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

Why do they keep going back and forth between Winter Weather Advisory and Winter Storm Watch? When you read it there is not much difference.

INDY
INDY

Snowing very hard out at the YARDofBRICKS now for over a hour .. ground is covered…INDY!!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

UPDATE… Issued at 934 PM EST Sun Nov 25 2018 Based on the recent trends in the high res models we upped the snow amounts slightly mainly for the southern half of the CWA and bumped up the winds in the WSW. We also mentioned inch per hour rates possible and changed the wording for an impacted morning commute to expected. The precipitation will transition to all snow over the next few hours as the intensity picks up. Currently, surface temperatures are relatively warm so impacts will be delayed a few hours. Later tonight and through the morning commute the… Read more »

Sheri (Eaton Rapids)
Sheri (Eaton Rapids)

Thanks Mark…. still weird not been updated to a warning.. Good Luck with your kids tomorrow … hope they get their snow day also 🙂

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Thanks Sheri. You too. Mine pulled out all the stops – spoons under their pillows, wearing their pjs inside out, etc. I think the NWS is really gun shy and doesn’t want to overshoot the first storm of the season. Then again, if the temps don’t start dropping, we’ll get more rain than snow.

Sheri (Eaton Rapids)
Sheri (Eaton Rapids)

LOL 🙂

Jeff(Portland)
Jeff(Portland)

Have a mix here, just started.

INDY
INDY

Heavy snow falling at the YARDofBRICKS ..INDY

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Schools already closing in Shiawassee county.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Any guesses as to when NWS GR will post their next forecast discussion?

INDY
INDY

Dark Blues almost to GR stay tuned! INDY!

Leonard Blush
Leonard Blush

I’ve got a hunch that this storm is going to be much less than advertised. It sure seems like there is a lot more warm air and rain than snow showing up at this point.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

That’s is very possible.

Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

It sure sounds like the kids will have a snow day Monday! It will be interesting to see how this storm tracks.

INDY
INDY

12 inches for GR wow ..Schools will be close tomorrow mark it down…INDY!

ROCKY (Rockford)
ROCKY (Rockford)

Great track!
comment image

ROCKY (Rockford)
ROCKY (Rockford)

ck out the new WPC probabilities!
comment image
comment image

INDY
INDY

Heavy snow band is just about to move in GR this storm is starting now shovel away . INDY!

ROCKY (Rockford)
ROCKY (Rockford)

Yes and it will be hammering us!

ROCKY (Rockford)
ROCKY (Rockford)

The gulf moisture is starting to really feed into the storm! Bring it!

ROCKY (Rockford)
ROCKY (Rockford)
Andy W
Andy W

Lol!! Those maps again!!! They were only 99.9995% WRONG last year!!

Jeff(Portland)
Jeff(Portland)

Sweet spot has shifted down to Battle Creek to Lansing per wood tv 8 .. Aww shucks.. Lol

ROCKY (Rockford)
ROCKY (Rockford)

They will end up being 100% wrong! The deformation zone will be setting up right near GR and pound us with SNOW!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

I’m guessing no school for the kids tomorrow.

Sheri (Eaton Rapids)
Sheri (Eaton Rapids)

Sort of a toss up on this…. keeping it an advisory is a mental game making it not seem so bad… Switch to a Warning… and BAM… schools close 🙂 I love snow days for my son and so I am hoping as much as he is. He is still burned out from last weeks exams… was a tough week for him!

INDY
INDY

This storm is coming together nice don’t forget the lk effect after this storm looks like November snow will be I
Piling up stay tuned INDY!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

This is a monster and it is strengthening as we speak! Incredible!

Andy W
Andy W

Slim, have they updated the map for percent chances of snowfall amounts yet??

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Clearly this storm is warning worthy! Check back with me tomorrow for the facts!

Andy W
Andy W

I’ll check in with the NWS tomorrow with the facts on the snowfall totals! Perhaps Slim could post the totals here?

Andy W
Andy W

Updated NWS discussion highlights:

The snow will be disruptive, but not crippling, thus we kept the
Winter Weather Advisory and did not upgrade to a Winter Storm
Warning.

Strong UVV`s will produce snowfall rates of a half inch to inch per
hour for a few hours between I-96 and I-94. We believe the heaviest
snow will fall within a 50 mile band from South Haven to Alma. Grand
Rapids should be on the northern edge of this band.

Slim

The statement that the snow will be disruptive but not crippling says it all for the reason for NOT issuing a winter storm warning, Not all snow falls are a “storm” just like in the summer time not all thunder showers are “storms” and not all thunderstorms are “severe”
Slim

Andy W
Andy W

Precisely Slim! Around 3” of snowfall overnight is not a Winter Storm!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

……..breaking weather news……. the RDB model still gives GGR 6 to 10 inches of snow and a special RDB Winter Srorm Warning has been issued! Rock n roll will never die!!

Andy W
Andy W

Awesome, that guarantees a snow bust from GR to the north then!

Jeff(Portland)
Jeff(Portland)

They shifted the heaviest snow to the SW of GR. lol http://prntscr.com/lmux0u .. Does look like it’s trending more south.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Looks like that includes the post-storm lake effect.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Let’s review the facts we have blizzard warnings and winter storm warning all around us yet the gr nws will not pull the trigger! Wow!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

The gr nws is a joke. This will end up with well above warning criteria yet no warning. Give me a break!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

NWS DTX upgraded the thumb to Winter Storm Warning. NWS GR chose to keep us all in a Winter Weather Advisory. They expect it to be “disruptive, but no crippling.” Looks like we’re in the sweet spot, though

Andy W
Andy W

NWS lowering totals now too, cutting the total in half for tonight. Tonight Rain showers likely before 7pm, then rain and snow showers likely between 7pm and 8pm, then snow showers after 8pm. Low around 28. Northeast wind 11 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 3 inches. Monday Snow showers, mainly before 1pm. Patchy blowing snow before 8am. High near 32. North wind 14 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 2 inches.… Read more »

Jeff(Portland)
Jeff(Portland)

Thanks Andy.

INDY
INDY

Should be anytime Winter storm warning! INDYDOG14!

Jeff(Portland)
Jeff(Portland)

Whatever we get tonight/tomorrow, enjoy it. Looks like rain coming next weekend.

ROCKY (Rockford)
ROCKY (Rockford)

Still waiting for the GR NWS to pull the trigger! Get with it!

INDY
INDY

NWS it’s talking about power outages and white out conditions now for GR could we be talking about a blizzard starting to roll that way .. Slim Rocky get in on this thought ..INDY!!

ROCKY (Rockford)
ROCKY (Rockford)

You know it and everything is progressing as expected!
comment image

ROCKY (Rockford)
ROCKY (Rockford)
Jeff(Portland)
Jeff(Portland)

Accuweather backing off on totals. from 5 to 9″ to 4-6. Keep dropping south. It will be a mess either way. Be safe tomorrow.

ROCKY (Rockford)
ROCKY (Rockford)

Accuweather has us in the bullseye! Get ready!

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/winter-weather

Mr. Negative
Mr. Negative

Hoping for a “it just missed us” outcome.

Sheri (Eaton Rapids)
Sheri (Eaton Rapids)

Here’s to hoping for a snow day for my son to extend his Thanksgiving break and help me to finish decorating the tree.. 🙂

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

I’m right there with ya!

INDY
INDY

Blizzard warnings for Chicago now getting crazzy!! INDY!

Sheri (Eaton Rapids)
Sheri (Eaton Rapids)

I know… I envy them 🙂

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Look for a warning for Kent county with 6 to 10 inches of snow!!!!!!!!!!

INDY
INDY

Slim Rocky this storm is starting to slow down now could that mean more precipitation or the speed bringing it down in intensity? INDY!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

If it slows down right over us it will mean more snow!!!!!! The slowing down should not adversly affect our storm!

INDY
INDY

Love it talking about a major snowstorm so early in the winter season has a few shaking there heads on here shovel it up summer is only 6 months away lol .. Let It Snow Let It Snow Let It Snow … THE GREAT AND POWERFUL SNOW!! INDY!!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Bring it!

Jeff(Portland)
Jeff(Portland)

Looks like it may be further south. lol.. http://prntscr.com/lms5yw

ROCKY (Rockford)
ROCKY (Rockford)

Keep in mind that we will be upgraded to a WARNING this afternoon! Mark it down!

ROCKY (Rockford)
ROCKY (Rockford)

Check this out! Yes it has shifted South right to GR! Bring it!
comment image

Andy W
Andy W

Keep that line shifting south!

We simplified to headlines to two groups…a northern grouping
and a southern grouping. Short range models continue to shift
slightly farther south with the band of heavier snow. Still
looking at light snow to begin around 10 pm tonight north of I-96
with some rain to the south. Then, rain changing to snow south of
I-96 after 2am or so. Half inch to inch per hour snowfall is
possible overnight from Grand Rapids, to Alma south to Kalamazoo
to the north side of Lansing.

Jeff(Portland)
Jeff(Portland)

Yep, dont need all this snow at once. Hoping it shifts enough so the heavier snow is south of here..

Jeff(Portland)
Jeff(Portland)

Why the winter weather advisory? I thought with amounts there calling for it would be a winter storm warning.. Things that make you say .. hmmm.

Slim

I have to wonder the same thing. My guess is that there have been too many times in the past where there was a winter storm watch that had to be down graded to a advisory,
Slim

Jeff(Portland)
Jeff(Portland)

Good point!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

The bottom line a major snowstorm is headed right at us! Get prepared now and get ready to rock n roll!

INDY
INDY

Great thoughts Slim keep us informed today one thing for sure I love a uncertainty storms even the meteorologist are challenged today should be fun watching it roll in! Let it snow let it snow let it snow. This will boost our already above normal November snowfall yeaaaa! INDY!!

Slim

Here are some maps that give the % chances of reaching some snow fall amounts.comment image
comment image

and day dream amountscomment imageS

Slim

Slim

I see what a difference the new forecaster at GRR makes in our area forecast. Off to our west in Chicago land they are in a winter storm warning and there is talk of blizzard like conditions. While on our side of the lake we are in a winter weather advisory. I see there are areas to our west where up to 13+ inches are being the guessed snow fall amounts. While on our side of the lake it is only in the 3-5″ range with a small area of 6-9 possible. we will have to see how this all… Read more »