According to model predictions the area between Grand Rapids to Kalamazoo and eastward to Lansing appear to be in the sweet spot for heavy wet snow tonight into Monday morning. This mornings NAM, NAM NEST and GFS are all consistent with over six inches of heavy wet snow. With lake effect mixed in lakeshore counties may pick up close to a foot through Tuesday. These are predictions based on a 10:1 ratio so amounts will vary. Below are the NAM and GFS guesses for snow accumulations from the system baring down on us. (click to enlarge the images).
The advisory begins at 7pm this evening running through 1pm tomorrow. I won’t be surprised if a warning is released later today as the track of the storm becomes more apparent. This is the latest morning discussion from the NWS.
- Confidence is now moderate to high in the placement of the snow accumulations axis along the I-96 corridor which is further south than previous forecast packages. However, a small shift further south is still possible. - Confidence is moderate in snowfall amounts of 3-5" with a localized band or two of 6-9". - The timing of the heaviest snow has shifted later, with the most impactful weather now expected between 10 PM Sunday and 1 PM Monday. An even later arrival time is possible, encompassing both the Monday morning and evening commutes. - Confidence is high in a period of lake effect snow on Monday night through Wednesday morning, with the heaviest on Tuesday west of US-131.