Winter Guesses

Our local TV Mets in Kalamazoo and Grand Rapids have released their winter forecast guesses, all are calling for a mainly back loaded winter, meaning most of our snow and cold will be in the January through March time frame with some snow events hanging around into early April.  All are consistent with their forecasts and in agreement – to bad congress can’t be the same and start working on making America great again instead of wasting time and money on trying to impeach Trump (oops – this is a weather blog, sorry).

I wrote last week about the warm pool of water off the west coast which blocks zonal patterns and causes the cold air to swoop down from Canada east of the Rockies (simply put).  The big question is will the warm “blob” remain in place the whole winter.  Another is how many synoptic (storm) events will we have.  With the Great Lakes surrounding Michigan lake effect snow is also hard to predict because it is dependent on wind direction.

One thing we know for sure is the cold and snow which is currently in place over the northern hemisphere – below are the graphics of current snow on the ground compared to last year – both are very similar.

2019 snow cover
2018 snow cover

We will lose most of the snow cover over the next week or so as temps rise above freezing.  The CPC has us near to slightly below normal for the next couple weeks.  Normal high temps are in the upper 40s and lows around freezing for SW Michigan for mid November.  Looking at some long range outlooks I am seeing more rain than snow until we get out to Thanksgiving.  I am thinking this will be the pattern through the early part of December with temps swinging back and forth.

I am not even going to try to predict snow fall amounts, especially for the lakeshore counties because it is so variable – I am thinking more synoptic events this winter with the whiplash of lake effect snow on the back side.  All in all I will say I believe we may be surprised about the snow depths this coming season which may exceed what the other Mets are predicting.  We are overdue….  It will be a cold winter and most will come around Christmas lasting through March – of course these are guesses and the elements of the atmosphere tend to prove us wrong time and time again…..


We will be getting out of the deep freeze starting today with temps rising back into the low 30s, we should see some sun tomorrow and Saturday.


 

newest oldest
Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

I will be doing everything in power to make sure Trump does not win MI in 2020. #dumptrump!

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

KMA2020!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Rock on Nathan! I knew there was good reason that I liked you! Keep up the good work! Trump doesn’t even believe in climate change!

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

I like how you and INDY even disagree on politics. This is entertaining!
(But I’ll stick to weather related comments from here just because this is a weather blog)

INDY
INDY

I respect Rocky and he respects INDY it’s all good …Let it snow..INDY

Mr. Negative
Mr. Negative

All will be able to make notes of new records across the board this season. Never before seen snow fall amounts, and of course, never before realized cold. Snowfall?…be sure to note the reports of significant structural damage this season, from roofs, to decks, infrastructure and the overall landscape. Cold?…not for a day or two, but for weeks on end, unrelenting. Water pipes, furnaces, automobiles, people stranded in life threatening cold, the house fires from overused heaters. The Forecast?…Catastrophic. Oh well, best of luck to everyone, and just continue to repeat the sad mantra, “it’s a winter wonderland”.

INDY
INDY

I agree It’s been raining or snowing every 3 to 4 days a week since last January catastrophic for sure lots of records being broke 2019 the year of the storm …INDY

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Sounds great! Bring it on!

INDY
INDY

28* degrees out at thee YARDofBRICKS NE of GR will we even make 30* degrees today crazzy for November standards ….INDY …

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

I was in Holland yesterday, and there are a lot of trees in full color as well as ones that are still green. Looks very odd with tons of leaves in the yards on top of the snow. Can’t say I’ve ever seen this many leaves on the trees yet in mid November. They’re going to have a mess to clean up as the slop melts over the next couple days.

*SS*
*SS*

Barry I was saying the same thing to my family members. It is weird like which season are we in!!! LOL!!!

Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

I see the same here on some of the trees and in the yards. It could be a messy cleanup in the Spring.

Slim

Here is an interesting weather fact. While at Grand Rapids the average annual temperature has gone up in the last 30 years the average snow fall has also gone up as well. In the last 30 years the mean temperature at Grand Rapids is 49.0° and the 10 year average snow fall is 86.6”. The 20 year mean average temp is 49.4 and the snow fall average is 80.2” and in the last 30 years the average annual temperature at Grand Rapids is 49.0° and the snow fall average over the last 30 years is 78.4” So at least at… Read more »

Slim

Good Morning! Yesterdays H/L of 25/15 was the 2nd coldest maximum and the 3rd coldest minimum in Grand Rapids recorded history. And the 3” of snow on the ground is the most snow on the ground for the date. At this time the November mean at Grand Rapids is 32.8 and that is a departure of -10.7. Here at my house there was just a trace of snow fall overnight and the temperature went up from 22 up to the current reading here of 28 with cloudy skies. For today the average H/L is 48/34. The record high is 68… Read more »

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Bring on more cold and snow!

Slim

Japanese monthlies that just came out are hinting at a colder than average January and February in out area. If that pans out we could be looking at a cold winter and yes that would bring a chance of more lake effect snow the question then would be where and that depends on wind direction.
Slim

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

We will be seeing a cold and snowy winter! All signs point towards above normal snowfall this year! Get prepared now!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Asking a foreign government to interfere in a presidential election is a blatant violation of American law and our national security! Despicable!

INDY
INDY

Yeaaaa and paying a vice presidents son 80 grand a month for a job he has no idea on how to do and let alone dont know how to speak that language of the country he’s working for is a crock of S*** becouse Mr vice daddy forced them to hire him or else threatening a country if they don’t hire his son there not getting the funds buts thats ok …. Biden’s are crooks!! Thanks to our president that would of never of come out …INDY

INDY
INDY

Getting out of the deep frezze January talk in November and back loaded snow and cold through April wow sounds like a crazzy long winter ahead to me shuuuuu ..”Love it” Have a good Thursday …INDY

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

You know it. All signs are pointing to above average snowfall and a locked in winter for months on end! Get ready!