Our local TV Mets in Kalamazoo and Grand Rapids have released their winter forecast guesses, all are calling for a mainly back loaded winter, meaning most of our snow and cold will be in the January through March time frame with some snow events hanging around into early April. All are consistent with their forecasts and in agreement – to bad congress can’t be the same and start working on making America great again instead of wasting time and money on trying to impeach Trump (oops – this is a weather blog, sorry).
I wrote last week about the warm pool of water off the west coast which blocks zonal patterns and causes the cold air to swoop down from Canada east of the Rockies (simply put). The big question is will the warm “blob” remain in place the whole winter. Another is how many synoptic (storm) events will we have. With the Great Lakes surrounding Michigan lake effect snow is also hard to predict because it is dependent on wind direction.
One thing we know for sure is the cold and snow which is currently in place over the northern hemisphere – below are the graphics of current snow on the ground compared to last year – both are very similar.
We will lose most of the snow cover over the next week or so as temps rise above freezing. The CPC has us near to slightly below normal for the next couple weeks. Normal high temps are in the upper 40s and lows around freezing for SW Michigan for mid November. Looking at some long range outlooks I am seeing more rain than snow until we get out to Thanksgiving. I am thinking this will be the pattern through the early part of December with temps swinging back and forth.
I am not even going to try to predict snow fall amounts, especially for the lakeshore counties because it is so variable – I am thinking more synoptic events this winter with the whiplash of lake effect snow on the back side. All in all I will say I believe we may be surprised about the snow depths this coming season which may exceed what the other Mets are predicting. We are overdue…. It will be a cold winter and most will come around Christmas lasting through March – of course these are guesses and the elements of the atmosphere tend to prove us wrong time and time again…..
We will be getting out of the deep freeze starting today with temps rising back into the low 30s, we should see some sun tomorrow and Saturday.