Winter Forecast (?)

posted in: Michigan Weather Forecast | 18

The Storm Team 8 crew will put their winter forecast out today.  I think it is great they get together as a team to look at the models and analogs to reach their conclusions at what may happen this winter.  I have known Bill for a number of years and Craig James before him.  The study of earth and atmospheric sciences is not easy course work to gain a meteorologist certification.  There is also a lot of physics, chemistry, algebra, calculus and statistical math involved which for many like myself leaves our brains leaking out off our ears.  A bachelors degree or Ph. D are required in interdisciplinary subjects.  When you watch your local met on TV you are seeing many years of education.

On the other side there are many amateur mets like myself who gain our knowledge from many years of learning and studying past climatology and are curious about how the whole thing works.   My education was mainly in computer science, a technology which continues to evolve where one has to continue their education for yearly certifications which can be expensive and time consuming.  I have kept up on the basics since my certifications lapsed years ago and I have not needed them to progress to retirement.  Still, one is never to old to learn and keep our brains functioning with new knowledge especially as we get older.  I am self taught in electronics technology because like many before me I was curious and wanted to build things rather than buy them.  The same goes for carpentry – I would rather make something myself – now I have a woodshop and electronics lab I have build over the years for my retirement.  I guess the main theme here is to never quit learning – if you find something which interests you, pursue it.  It can take a few years to collect all the tools and components needed but it will pay off in the end….

Winter forecasting is a guess at best.  We watch what is going on in the far western Pacific, the Atlantic, Russia and the Arctic and try to figure how they will all come together to produce the weather in our area.  Forecasting can be easier and more predictable up to about a week out, beyond that it is mainly a guess.  I will try to get out a winter forecast later this month, I believe it is still to early to figure out what December will bring let alone the rest of the winter.  For now we can look at what is going on now.  Below are the current graphics for snow cover in the northern hemisphere.

 

Temperature anomalies across North America are predicted to persist with normal to above normal temperatures from the Rockies westward to the west coast and normal to below normal temperatures in Central North America and normal to above normal temperatures right along the Eastern Seaboard through November 8.  New snowfall is possible across large parts of Siberia, and into Central Asia. New snowfall is also possible in Alaska, much of Canada and into the Northwestern US through next week.

Arctic sea ice growth rate has accelerated but remains well below normal. The greatest negative sea ice anomalies remain in the Chukchi, Beaufort, Laptev and Barents-Kara Seas.  Based on recent research low sea ice anomalies in the Chukchi and Bering seas favors cold temperatures in central and eastern North America while low sea ice in the Barents-Kara seas favor cold temperatures in Central and East Asia, however this topic remains controversial.

Recent research has shown that regional anomalies that are most highly correlated with the polar vortex is the Barents-Kara seas region where low Arctic sea ice favors a weaker winter polar vortex.  However it is looking like the greatest negative anomalies are emerging in the Barents-Kara Seas and this may be the region most favored for ridging/blocking during the winter months.

The rate of North American snow cover advance has slowed but remains near decadal highs. With continued cold air across Canada and the Northern US, North America snow cover will likely continue further. If snow and cold establish a foothold across Canada this fall, it could support an early start to winter across the Northern U.S.

I think we we see snow this month, however I am not seeing any real outbreaks of Arctic air until the end of the month as seen in the CFS model below.  We may see our temps reach daytime highs in the upper 30s by the end of next week with a wintry mix.


Short term we will see clouds and rain will fall from Elkhart to Flint on to the south.  Our best day to see some sun will be Saturday.  Typically our weather pattern for November features rain every couple days which may be the norm over the next few days.


 

18
Leave a Reply

avatar
8 Comment threads
10 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
6 Comment authors
Leonard BlushINDYSlim*SS*Barry in Zeeland Recent comment authors
newest oldest
Leonard Blush
Leonard Blush

Shocking…WOOD tv is calling for a snowy and cold winter!! I’m suspect the marketing department has more input on those yearly winter forecasts than anyone else.

INDY
INDY

Wow a below normal month who would of thought October!! We welcome November in again on a cool one big storm coming next week could see our first inch of snow we are tracking right Rocky … Stay tuned INDY! Ohh the River is playing Christmas music now ..

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

And don’t forget it was also a below average snowfall month in October as well! Continues the 5 year trend we have been in.

INDY
INDY

Just like the warm summer below average in Thunderstorms if the NWS would keep track right ? Lol!! Last GR had a good severe storm was 2012! INDYDOG14!!

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

For whatever reason, this area seems to miss most storms no matter what time of the year it is, Summer or Winter. The past two years our best thunderstorms have come in January and February.

Mookie
Mookie

Has WOODTV ever predicted below average snowfall winter? I know they predicted a snowy winter the last two winters and also in 11-12, 12-13, and 14-15 by what I was able to pull from a quick Google Search.

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Close to never because they are driven by ratings. Saying it’s going to snow equals higher ratings and more people talking whether it actually happens or not. Calling for mild and less snow equals lower ratings, so they never go that rout. Getting people excited and riled up is money in the bank for them.

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Like others have mentioned, here also the trees have really “popped” in color over the past couple days. Still a few green trees hanging on, but most now have bright colors. Going to be raking well into mid-November this year. Just hope I don’t need to mow to many more times.

Slim

As MV stated long range outlooks are just a guess at best. I will see what the WOOD TV crew come up with for their guess. We have been in a warmer then average weather pattern for a long time now and I do feel that will change at some point. The questions is when and by how much. Some areas where we are over due are for 1. a major November fall storm system. (last real big one 1998) 2. a true winter time blizzard with 12″ or more of snow and high winds I know some will say… Read more »

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Probably no way to do it, but I’d love to see the stats on the past 5 to 10 years with tv 8 on their predictions vs. actual outcome. Can’t verify without the facts, but to me it seems like they have been way off with their outlooks. I think it was 2 years ago they were carrying on and on about getting those snow plow contracts and snowblowers ready. I used my snowblower 3 times that Winter. I realize it’s all a guess, but they tend to over hype our Winters, when in reality we have had mostly mild… Read more »

Slim

I would like to see that as well. I guess as a lead up to todays winter guess Wood TV has this out. https://www.woodtv.com/weather/what-will-determine-how-cold-this-winter-will-be-/1564996346 The big issue I have with this story is the one where it goes over the past winters at Grand Rapids the average of 74.9 is OK but the records for Grand Rapids snow fall are not correct. I am not sure what time frame is being used but the story has the most snow fall at Grand Rapids as 116.0″ in 2013/14 well the correct record is 132.0″ in 1951/52 and the story has 47.6″… Read more »

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

I think they need you to take over the weather stats there. I don’t think I’ve seen anyone as thorough and accurate as you!

Mookie
Mookie

I think it’s funny how every year we hear about how supposedly “early snow” in Siberia or the Arctic will give us a cold snowy winter and then it ends up with very little snow and fairly mild.

Mookie
Mookie

Two warm days in a row. Can we go for three?

Slim

Welcome to November. Here is a wrap on October 2018. This past October was a wet one here in Grand Rapids with 5.69” of rain falling (there was a trace of snow on both the 19th and 20th) The mean temperature was50.4° that was a departure of -0.6° this was the 1st month of below average mean temperature since April. The High for the month was 84° on October 9th that was a record high for that date. The low for the month was 27° on the 18th October 2018 will go down as a month with a warm 1st… Read more »

*SS*
*SS*

Hey Slim, MV or someone else. Didn’t we have early snow (Meaning late October like 26-31) in the late 90s thinking like 97-99. We got a few inches because if memory serves me right there were a lot of power outages due to the all the leaves on the trees still at that time. Can you help me out? Mv thinking you might remember because it was in Allegan County…may have been else where too.

Slim

Sorry for the late reply, Yes it was October 27th 1997 when the area had heavy wet snow with a lot of thunder and lightning with many power outages. Other recent heave (by October standards) snows were October 19 and 20 1989 when 4.5″ and 1.3″ fell. In October 1992 on the 20th 2.2″ fell and in 2006 on the 12th 2″ fell.
Slim

*SS*
*SS*

Thanks Slim… it was no hurry. We were talking about snow around Halloween and I said I think right before Halloween we had snow and no power. LOL!!! So I wasn’t crazy… LOL!!!