The NWS lays out their local morning forecast discussions before 4am and their graphics can sometime lag behind four hours which leaves it up to local METS to make there own determinations on what the weather may actually do. The models runs I have made over the past hour have been all over the place in regards to how much precipitation we will get in SW Michigan.
Below is the current graphic of where the heaviest rain may set up for this evening through Tuesday morning which would be from Allegan, Barry, Eaton and Ingham county to the south.
It is my belief the heaviest rains will fall along and south of the I94 corridor with decreasing QPF values further north of that boundary. Severe weather will stay along the I80 corridor where storm chasers and spotters will be setting up today and tonight.
We can still see some training dependent where the lines of storms and rain set up, mainly south of Grand Rapids with localized amounts up to two inches. The I96 corridor could see a half an inch or so and the I94 corridor up to 3/4 of an inch as of this writing – Three Rivers could have up to an inch and a half. To keep up to date on this check out the point forecasts on the front page as amounts keep changing and are quite variable across lower Michigan.
There is a marginal risk for storms over southern Michigan today and tonight.
After this we will see a couple more systems move through which will add to our wet period until we see the heat build back in later this week into next week. The CPC has us warmer than normal over the next couple weeks.
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