Weekly Winter Forecast Update – Winter Weather Advisory

As I said last week I am going to post what the weather is looking like in regards to our winter forecast every Thursday.  I believe it is still to early to figure out what December will bring let alone the rest of the winter. However we can look at what is going on now.

Meteorologists watch what is going on in the far western Pacific, the Atlantic, Russia and the Arctic and try to figure how they will all come together to produce the weather in our area. Forecasting can be easier and more predictable up to about a week out, beyond that it is mainly a guess.

Last week I wrote about the Modoki El Niño which creates colder than normal conditions over the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. and warmer than normal for the Rockies westward 65% of the time (since records have been kept.) This would also mean near normal precipitation for most of the U.S. and dryer than normal for the western states. This, in part is what we are looking at for this winter.

Below are the current graphics for snow cover in the northern hemisphere.


These were last weeks graphics for comparison:


We have snow cover over most of Canada with the exception of the British Columbia lower altitudes.

Next we have snow cover for eastern Europe and Russia.

and here are the current temps:

There is plenty of cold air waiting to pour over the north pole into Canada and the U.S.


Lastly we look at the CPC guesses updated yesterday:



As you can see we have a 70% of below normal temps through the 17th and we could see those temps getting back to normal around the week of Thanksgiving.  We also see chances of dryer than normal conditions for most of the U.S..  The GFS and CFSv2 models are still showing the cold air to return towards the end of the month into the first part of December.


We have a taste of winter on the way with a Winter Weather Advisory beginning at 1am tonight lasting through 7am Saturday for portions of south central, southwest and west central Michigan. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

Appears to be a nasty weekend with wet snow and rain mixing back and forth continuing right on through midweek next week.  Good time to get out the snow shovels and pull out the snow blowers….


 

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*SS*Rocky (Rockford)Sandy (Hudsonville)Rocky (Rockford)INDY Recent comment authors
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Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

I am hoping the roads going into GR Friday afternoon are in great shape!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Rock n roll will never die! Bring on winter!

Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

You got your skis ready??

Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

Well looks like everyone who bought new snow blowers will finally get to use them. 🙂

*SS*
*SS*

Did you notice that Channel 8 was conducting Test for school closures today?

Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

Really?

INDY
INDY

DDDDDD Rocky is ready!! Bring it!! INDYDOG14!!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

WWA in the beginning of novi Who wild have thought? Not the warm weather fanatics!

INDY
INDY

Interesting we have a snowstorm coming and the blog is quiet today .. Its only snow in November lol!! INDYDOG14!!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

+1

INDY
INDY

Indiana summer was the first week of October this year it was early .. 12+ inches of snow could fall in the upee this weekend crazzy for this time of year but we saw the sighns of this coming just a few on this blog wanted to believe it! I will take 2-4 inches in GR Friday. I am really keeping a eye on the Tuesday Wednesday time frame maybe a Winter storm brewing stay tuned INDY!

Mark(East Lansing)
Mark(East Lansing)

9-14″ forecasted for Houghton & Hancock!

INDY
INDY

This is some storm coming im seeing some models want to give GR 6+ inches I still think the ground and especially the streets are to warm definitely have some melting going on but not bad for early November … INDYDOG14!!

Mark(East Lansing)
Mark(East Lansing)

The best comment I saw on mlive about the WWA:

“Snow? I’m still waiting for Indian Summer.”

Slim

Here is a fun fact that I will keep an eye on this fall and winter season. The last time it has reached 60 or better this fall was back on October 14, 2018. Since 1892 there have only been 8 years that the last 60° or better day was in October here is the list 1907, 1919,1920,1921,1925,1969, 1976, and 1997 could 2018 be the next one on that list???
Slim

Slim

I will say this that in past weak El Nino’s West Michigan has seen several inches of snow in November. That said here once again is a list of known past weak El Nino’s and some info on the winter that happened during that weak El Nino event, 1952/53 November snow fall 6.4” November mean temperature 42.3° season total snow fall 42.3” 1953/54 November snow fall 7.4” November mean temperature 39.9° Season total snow fall 78.3” 1958/59 November snow fall 8.6” November mean temperature 40.6° Season total snow fall 104.7” 1969/70 November snow fall 14.3” November mean temperature 33.5° Season… Read more »