As I said last week I am going to post what the weather is looking like in regards to our winter forecast every Thursday. I believe it is still to early to figure out what December will bring let alone the rest of the winter. However we can look at what is going on now.
Meteorologists watch what is going on in the far western Pacific, the Atlantic, Russia and the Arctic and try to figure how they will all come together to produce the weather in our area. Forecasting can be easier and more predictable up to about a week out, beyond that it is mainly a guess.
Last week I wrote about the Modoki El Niño which creates colder than normal conditions over the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. and warmer than normal for the Rockies westward 65% of the time (since records have been kept.) This would also mean near normal precipitation for most of the U.S. and dryer than normal for the western states. This, in part is what we are looking at for this winter.
Below are the current graphics for snow cover in the northern hemisphere.
These were last weeks graphics for comparison:
We have snow cover over most of Canada with the exception of the British Columbia lower altitudes.
Next we have snow cover for eastern Europe and Russia.
and here are the current temps:
There is plenty of cold air waiting to pour over the north pole into Canada and the U.S.
Lastly we look at the CPC guesses updated yesterday:
As you can see we have a 70% of below normal temps through the 17th and we could see those temps getting back to normal around the week of Thanksgiving. We also see chances of dryer than normal conditions for most of the U.S.. The GFS and CFSv2 models are still showing the cold air to return towards the end of the month into the first part of December.
We have a taste of winter on the way with a Winter Weather Advisory beginning at 1am tonight lasting through 7am Saturday for portions of south central, southwest and west central Michigan. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.
Appears to be a nasty weekend with wet snow and rain mixing back and forth continuing right on through midweek next week. Good time to get out the snow shovels and pull out the snow blowers….