Well, WOODTV has put their winter forecast out there, so, we shall see how that pans out. Long range CFSv2 models have been trending to much colder than normal temps in the teens and 20s towards the end of the month and the lakeshore counties could start to take a beating. Of course as I have stated many times these are guesses, however it may be a good time to get the snowblowers tuned up and the snow shovels out just in case. This is the time of year when we could get the sloppy wet snow with ice mixed in. Long range (30 day) models have been pointing to cold air coming in this month consistently over the past couple weeks.
I am thinking this year instead of putting out a winter forecast I will write up current global conditions every Thursday and how they will affect the weather over a two week period similar to what I wrote yesterday.
Matt Kirkwood spoke of the Modoki El Niño. This is a recent term first named by Professor Jamagata of JAMSTEC (The Japanese Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology).
|Rainfall during El Niño Modoki|
Hope this helps explains what Matt was talking about. We try to make this an educational site to make the weather and climatology more understanding. This could be an interesting winter if it all plays out. We haven’t had a total cold and snowy winter in several years.
Our first snow is predicted for mid to late next week which I would say would be the wet nasty style mixed with rain. Hopefully we can get the rest of the leaves off the trees by then or we could see some tree damage and power lines going down which we saw in October of 1997.
Below is the October climate summary from the NWS which is self explanatory:
We should see a lot of clouds for today, however Saturday it will clear out enough to bring the sun into the picture which we don’t see a lot of in November, so enjoy it while we have it. A few showers will pass through Saturday night into Sunday and another system will be coming through Monday night through Wednesday. That system could bring some thunderstorms and windy conditions. I will write more on this system on Sunday. Temps over the weekend will range from the upper 40s to low 50s. Lows will be around freezing tonight then the upper 30s to mid 40s over the weekend.
Sparty plays Maryland and the Wolverines will play Penn State in the Big House tomorrow. I will not even mention the “L” word for the game on Sunday.