Warming Up Big Time

posted in: Michigan Weather Forecast | 23

TO the left is the CPC outlook for the 28th through July 2nd showing about half of the US with excessive heat.  The central US will see temperatures breaking 100°  Our area will see temps in the 90s with dew points in the low to mid 70s.  This will be a very uncomfortable airmass unless you like tropical weather and like to sweat.  The airmass will be in Michigan from Friday through next Monday.

The National Weather Service issues excessive heat warnings within 12 hours of the onset of extremely dangerous heat conditions. This warning is generally issued when the maximum heat index temperature is expected to be 105 degrees or higher for at least two days and nighttime air temperatures will not drop below 75.

Heat waves form when high pressure aloft (from 10,000–25,000 feet) strengthens and remains over a region for several days up to several weeks. This is common in summer (in both Northern and Southern Hemispheres) as the jet stream ‘follows the sun’. On the equator side of the jet stream, in the upper layers of the atmosphere, is the high pressure area.

Summertime weather patterns are generally slower to change than in winter. As a result, this upper level high pressure also moves slowly. Under high pressure, the air subsides (sinks) toward the surface.  This warmer sinking air creates a high level inversion that acts as a dome capping the atmosphere, inhibiting convection, thereby trapping high humidity warm air below it. Typically, convection is present along the periphery of the cap where the pressure becomes less. This peripheral convection, however, can add to the high pressure dome by ventilating the upper level outflow of the thunderstorms into it. The end result is a continual build-up of heat at the surface that people experience as a heat wave.

A low pressure system will track across Lower Michigan tonight into Wednesday morning. This will bring the scattered showers to the area this afternoon with showers and a few thunderstorms tonight. Seems the heaviest rainfall is likely to be near and north of I-96 tonight. The showers may linger into the mid morning hours of Wednesday.

As the system moves of out the area on Wednesday some additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon, mostly east of US-131. Thursday should be a pleasant sort of day with partly cloudy skies and highs in the 80s.

We still expect our heat wave over the weekend with high in the lower to mid 90s and heat index values in near 100. It now looks like a cold front may come through the area Sunday evening or early Monday. That will bring the threat of afternoon thunderstorms Sunday and bring slightly cooler temperatures Monday and Tuesday.


 

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ROCKY (Rockford)
ROCKY (Rockford)

I see a whopping two days of temps I would consider a heat wave! It looks like Slim’s prediction of a 2 to 3 day heat wave will be right on the money!!!

Mr. Negative
Mr. Negative

Lost count…seems an endless string of below average temp days…today included. Hoping we can get to, and maintain at the very least, average daily temps for the remaining 60 days of summer. Fingers crossed.

ROCKY (Rockford)
ROCKY (Rockford)

Exactly it has been an impressive stretch of below normal tamps! Who knew?

Mookie
Mookie

More Excessive Heat Watches for after July 4th now!
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Mookie
Mookie

Definitely not just a “2-3 day heat wave.” Get ready.

Slim

yes, get ready for warm to at times hot summer like weather for the next two weeks or more. But hey it is summer after all. If one is trying to convince anyone that it has gotten warmer over the last 100 years do not use a few hot days to try to prove your point. The face is GR’s 100 year June average mean is 67.7 the 30 year average mean is 68.4 This year June will be warmer should be close to 70.0° The current July average mean (30 year) is 72.5° and the 100 year average mean… Read more »

Mookie
Mookie

No one is saying that Slim. Besides, you don’t have to set all-time records for it to be very hot or very cold for an extended time.

Mark(East Lansing)
Mark(East Lansing)

My NWS point forecast says 97 (I’ll believe it when I see it) for Saturday.

Slim – what is Saturday’s record high for GR and Lansing?

Slim

The record high for June 30 in Grand Rapids is 99° set in 1931 and for Lansing it is 98° set in 1913. If the temperatures reach the mid 90’s this will be the hottest June 30 since 1953.
Slim

Mark(East Lansing)
Mark(East Lansing)

You are the man!

Mr. Negative
Mr. Negative

Thank goodness for the possible “thaw”. Maybe we’ll get the opportunity to enjoy a moment of average to above average temps, during this poor excuse for “summer”.

Mookie
Mookie

Your shtick is up. It’s been a warm summer so far. I’d hate to see you when it’s a below average summer LOL

INDY
INDY

I’m seeing heat as far as the eyes can see on a weather map I could see some 100’s in Michigan excessive heat conditions hopefully it will bring on some big time Thunderstorms for GR ..Stay cool play in a pool INDYDOG14!!

Mookie
Mookie

10 days of heat at least it looks like!

Slim

Indy Indy, Readings of 100 or more are very rare here in Michigan, On average Grand Rapids would have about 0.77 a year (that is less than 1) and that to me seams on the high side
Slim

Mookie
Mookie

WOOD now has 88, 94, 95, 90, 88, 89. They also say: “We’ll see highs mostly from the mid 80s to low 90s next week and probably thru about the 9th.”

Mookie
Mookie

Not sure how you can call that a “2-3 day heatwave” LOL

Slim

NWS posted highs are 84,92,95, 90,86. Based on the official NWS guess that looks to me like a 2 to 3 day “heatwave” of course it is all based on one perspective of what is abnormally and or uncomfortably hot. Note the 90 on Sunday depends on cloud cover more sun hotter more clouds not as hot.
Slim

GunLakeDeb
GunLakeDeb

I will be praying for clouds 😉 Sunday is our family’s “Christmas” – and while we are lucky to have a lake to play in, when it gets that hot and humid, even the lake is scant relief

Slim

At this time, it looks like the upcoming “heat wave” should last 2 to 3 days. While it will be uncomfortable if you are outside and or do not have AC it is not at all uncommon for a 2 or 3 day hot spell to happen here in our area. Just think we now have had 6 days in a row of below average temperatures. As I was born and for most of my life have lived in Michigan and know Michigan weather patterns rather well and can tell you for the most part extremes are rare here. So… Read more »

ROCKY (Rockford)
ROCKY (Rockford)

Lets hope the mini heat wave only lasts a few days!

Slim

At this time it looks like maybe a 2 to 3 day heat wave.
Slim

Mookie
Mookie

LOL Wow