This week I will take a look at some past weather events and see what could be ahead for the winter time.
The NWS from Chicago did some research and found that colder than normal Novembers during La ¯Nina’s tend to produce BN temps for the Winter season. They also said this leads towards AN snowfall. The way we are trending this season, I like the chances for a large area of our sub forum to have a lot to look forward to this cold season.
I did some research to see if that was also the case for Grand Rapids (my guess was it should) First off going back to 1950 I looked at all the years that had a weak or moderate La Nina (at this time I left out strong ones as this year is forecasted to be either weak or moderate) then I looked to see if that November was colder than average or not. If yes, I looked to see how the winter was. Here is the results of my research.
Weak La Nina years with a colder than average November and the departure from average. 2008 -1.1° 2000 -2.6° 1974 -2.6° 1971 -2.1. Moderate La Nina years that November was colder than average and the departure 1995 -8.1 1970 -1.9° 1955 -4.8°
So now I looked at each year was and how the winter went all reading are for GRR all temperatures are departures from average.
Weak La Nina
2008 November temp -1.1° snow fall 10.0”. December temp -3.0° snow fall 54.6”. January -6.9° snow fall 29.9” February-1.0° snow 10.0” March +1.7° snow 0.4” season snow 104.9”
2000 In 2000 November was -2.6° with 23.0” of snow, December was -10.0° with 59.2” of snow, January was milder at +1.1° and only 4.1” of snow February was -1.0 and only 7.4” of snow March was -3.1° with 4.1” of snow thanks to a snowy November and December the season seen 98.1” of snow’
1974 November was -2.6° and there was 8.9” of snow. December was near average at -0.8° with 16.5” of snow fall. January was above average at 0.8° and only 10.7” of snow February was -2.5° and 10.6” of snow while Mach winter continued with a departure of -6.8° and 11.8” of snow the season was below average snow fall wise with 68.9”
1971 November was -2.1° with 3.7” of snow fall, December was mild at +2.8° and only 3.7” of snow, January turned cold with a departure of -3.6° and 22.6” of snow fall. February the cold continued with a departure of -4.9° and 16.9” of snow. Winter hung on into March with a departure of -6.0 and 14.2” of snow for the winter there was 79.8” of snow.
Now for the 3 colder than average moderate La Nina November’s
1995 November was very cold with a departure of -8.1° and 20.8” of snow. December also was cold at departure of -5.0 and 17.4” of snow. January was -2.7° and 13.5” of snow February came in -2.3° but only 6.9” of snow and March was -7.2° and seen 19.3” of snow. Total for the season was 79.7”
1970 November was -1.9° and there was 6.1” of snow, December was -3.5° and was snowy with 33.3” January the cold continued -6.1° and so did the snow 27.2” February the cold stayed -2.7° but snow stopped 4.4” and for March winter returned -6.6° and 25.9” of snow fall total for the season was 101.4”
1955 That November was -4.4° and seen 18.6” of snow December was -3.8° with 9.4” of snow fall January was average at -0.1° and seen little snow 5.3”. February was -2.3° and the snow came back with22.9” and March the cold hung around -5.5° and so did the snow 17.3” total for the season 79.3”
So yes looking back it looks like past La Nina years that had a colder then average November were for colder than average and had at least average to above average snow fall. So far this November here at Grand Rapids the departure is -4.7° but so far only 0.2” of snow fall. So will this winter be cold and snowy? Time will tell.
looking ahead into the start of December
At this time it looks like the coldest of the cold will be over Eurasia for the next two to three weeks or so (maybe more)
What does this mean for the United States? It does not mean we can not get cold as we still can especially the further north you are but the cold shots should be fast moving so we would be looking at a one or two day shot of cold (if and when it happens) and then back to near or above average temperatures. At this time it looks like at least the first half (if not more) of December will be on the mild side.
I am going to try and start a daily post that will be in the comment section it will be called Climatology for Today. It will include the average high/low for the date in question (note the average with be the average since the start of record keeping and not the 30 year average you may be use to) it will also include the record high, the coldest maximum, the coldest low and the warmest minimum, also include will be the most precipitation, the largest snow fall, and the most snow on the ground.
Climatology for today November 25th
Average high/ low 41.5°/28.3° (this is higher than yesterday)
The warmest 65° in 1908 the warmest low 48 also in 1908
The coldest low -10° in 1950 the coldest maximum 26° in 1916
The most precip 1.39” in 1979
The largest snow fall 3.5” in 2005 the most snow on the ground 8” 2004
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