We have a warm 69° at 4am this morning with very little rain overnight. Humidity levels are ramping up and our possibility of rain and storms increase this afternoon ‘if’ we should see any sun and instability in the atmosphere.
The limiting factor however is poor mid level lapse rates, which look better over Wisconsin. A lapse rate is the rate of temperature change with height. The faster the temperature decreases with height, the “steeper” the lapse rate and the more “unstable” the atmosphere becomes.
Sometimes it is safer to cry wolf during days such as this to prepare for the worse however it may or may not be as bad as it looked yesterday. We may just end up seeing a few showers and the flood watch may be lifted, or not – there are many times when it is a crap shoot in predicting the weather and time will tell.
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