To the left is the NAM total rainfall assumption through 18z on Friday. On Sunday the models had more rain on the west side of the state – today not so much. NWS plots are showing around a 40% chance in SE Allegan county with perhaps a quarter inch, chances increase to 65% on the eastern side around Detroit to under 1/2 inch. Grand Rapids is around a 24% chance. So our variances in model data are all over the place.
Currently there is a low pressure system tracking slowly northeast out of Missouri making the models unsure the direct path it will take or the strength of it once it gets here.
If it holds together it could track more westerly bringing more rain to the area or it could start falling apart bringing lesser amounts. I guess the best bet will be wait and see what happens. The next chance of rain will be Thursday with a cold front pushing through – at this point it appears the main threat of rain will be north of Grand Rapids.
We have a Bermuda high entrenched in the Atlantic so we will begin to see the warm and humid air returning for the weekend with highs in the upper 80s and dew points in the 60s – I will have more on what a Bermuda high is on Thursday….
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