Looking Ahead to October

posted in: Michigan Weather Forecast | 10

Some of you have enjoyed this extended summer in the fall, but will it last?  I am sure (looking at long range models) we will not see an extended period of 80 or 90° weather the rest of the year, but I do see another warming trend coming the first week of October with highs in the mid to upper 70’s.  I am not seeing much rain in the forecast with the GFS showing very little until after the 6th when we could get some soaking rains.


Long range guesses from the CPC are showing our dry and warm conditions holding on through most of October as we are going to be stuck in the Pacific ridge pattern.  These models change almost daily so we shall see if this holds true.



 

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Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Wow, what a heat wave! I think a jacket will be needed Friday. 60s will feel chilly.

Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

Looking forward to the cooler temps coming our way tomorrow. 🙂

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Crazy heat for sure! I am not getting anything done outside this year. Usually this is a great time of year to cut and split wood, clean up the yard, but no way in this heat. Has anybody checked on the Rocky? Poor guy/gal, must be close to losing it with this record setting heat wave. Can’t even golf in this weather.

Mookie
Mookie

Detroit has now had 8 days in 2017 where record highs were broken or tied.

The number of days a record low was broken or tied so far in 2017? Zero.

Slim

With the high here in Grand Rapids of 92° that sets a new record for September 26th this is the 6 day in a row of record setting highs. That make this the longest string of record highs since 1936. And this years heat wave ties 1934 for second place in the number of days in a row with record highs. Talk about history in the making.
slim

Mookie
Mookie

Nice! Are you saying the 1930’s record highs still stand or were simply made at the time they occurred? Because it was much easier to make a record back in 1934 than it is with another 83 years of data after the fact. In fact, general statistics would argue that the more data points we compile, the fewer records there should be.

Slim

Not sure what you are getting at???? This year in September Grand Rapids set records on 6 days in a row from September 21st to today September 26th In June of 1934 Grand Rapids set record highs also for 6 days in a row from June 20th to the 25th In 1936 Grand Rapids set record highs on 7 days in a row from July 8th to the 14th. There have not been any other years with a string of record setting highs in Grand Rapids history.
Slim

Mookie
Mookie

Oh, well then today’s streak is much more impressive!

If, for example, you have only been keeping records for a short period of time, then it is easy to set a new “record.”

If, on the other hand, you have kept records for 100+ years, it’s going to be much more difficult to set a new record. Pure statistics 101 and not a true apples to apples comparison.

Slim

Yes, I would say this year’s record having happened in September is more impressive than 1934 and 1936 and more in line with March 2012 could it be because of climate change? Maybe, due to the placement of a SE ridge? Maybe. Combination of the two? Possible. Does it mean we are going to have a mild fall? looks like it. And a mild winter? We shall see.
Slim

Slim

it is still way too early to try and guess what kind of winter we will have but from time to time when I come across some peoples ideas I will post them (if I can) here is one such idea for the winter of 2017/18
https://attendee.got…220@hotmail.com
We shall see
Slim