Happy Thanksgiving – Winter Update

posted in: Michigan Weather Forecast | 23

We have made our way through November without a major snow event for lower Michigan though we have had snow on the ground on several occasions it hasn’t been enough to hardly bring out the shovels as we can let it melt off within a day.  At this point I am thinking we may make it through the rest of the month in a similar pattern.

The snow and ice continues to build across Canada and the rest of the northern hemisphere – we are now seeing the ice start to build across the Hudson Bay in Canada.  Temperatures in Northern Canada are in the negative 5 to negative 15 degrees range. The main storm path still is going up through the Ohio Valley on through New England.

 

 

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is currently negative and is predicted to remain negative to possibly strongly negative for the next two weeks.  Even with this in place I am not seeing any super Arctic outbreaks over the next couple weeks – we may have to wait until around mid December before the really cold air starts breaking loose and rotating into our area.

With the negative AO we continue to see below normal seasonal temperatures for the eastern U.S. through the next two weeks, possibly right on through December.  The cold air in Canada at this point is not extraordinary so we have not seen the cold outbreaks with daytime temps in the teens to low 20s yet.  Keep in mind the polar vortex retreats to help build more cold air before it moves back into the U.S.. we haven’t seen this happen yet as what cold air they have up there continues to move south.  With the exception of this weekend chances are we will continue in the below normal temp pattern we have been in this month.

Of course using computer models and statistical analog patterns for forecasting can be humbling for those of us who try to predict what will happen beyond three or four days so our guesses are as good as guesses can be and remain only guesses…..


Happy Thanksgiving to all of my bloggers out there – thanks to your loyalty to this site.  A special thanks to Slim for his diligence in his weekly Saturday posts.

We all have a lot to be thankful for especially in the great land we live in.  Those that whine aren’t digging deep enough to find gratitude and must burst the bubble which they live in to see all the beauty which surrounds them.  We must look beyond ourselves to see there are others who suffer more than ourselves.

In this season we look to help those who are in need which are many, which due to circumstances beyond their control do not have homes or food.  Many are women with children and our veterans.  To me this is unacceptable.  I was astounded to see the statistics how many homeless people lived in our area including Allegan County.  Our veterans don’t deserve to be homeless – the government needs to step up to help those men and women who served our country.

When the first thanksgiving evolved it came from the pilgrims who moved to America due to religious persecution.  Even with the hardship they faced they found much to be grateful for as should we when we celebrate this holiday with friends and family.


 

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Andy W
Andy W

That “snowstorm” is not showing up in the GRR NWS forecast either. Looks like another long winter of crying wolf on these “major snowstorms hitting next week” on the blog again and then nothing happens! Oh well it’s good comedy for the season! Sunday A chance of rain and snow showers before 8am, then rain showers. High near 42. West wind 5 to 9 mph becoming east in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Sunday Night Rain showers before 10pm, then rain and snow showers between 10pm and 4am, then snow showers after… Read more »

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Breaking news……possible big snowstorm hitting this Sunday night and Monday! Get prepared now!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

I saw that too. Strange though, as the forecasted low for Sunday night is above freezing – 35°.

Andy W
Andy W

Hilarious what qualifies as a “snowstorm” these days…the graphic shows maybe 2” of snow for Sunday Night into Monday. Oh yeah, GET PREPARED, that 2” is absolutely FRIGHTENING!! I should probably book a hotel closer to work, so I don’t have to make that 15 minute commute on Monday!!

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Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO EVERYONE!! I hope you all had a wonderful day.. MV I love the photo of your pets. My little guy is not liking the cold. We had a lovely day with our daughter and grandson.

INDY
INDY

Typical Lions Red wings Pistions and Tigers Detroits 4 are terrible ..Glad I’m a Colts fan! Gobble Gobble Gobble bring on the snow!! INDYDOG14!!

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Actually the Wings are the hottest team in hockey over the past dozen games, winning more than any other team. They had a horrible start, but that has all but been erased now. They’re young, but they are quickly gaining poise, confidence, and swagger.

Slim

With several inches of snow cover snow cover several locations got down below zero. Here are some overnight lows Drummond Island -4° Gaylord -7, Sault Ste. Marie and Grayling -8° and Pellston -15° that is one cold night anytime of the winter season.
Slim

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! For sure much to be thankful for, to much to list here. Since this is a weather blog, I’m thankful for what Michael does for this site, can’t imagine how much time you spend on it every day. And as for the weather, can only take what we get, but I’d be thankful for what Michael posted above. No major snow events so far, any snow that has fallen has quickly disappeared, no super Arctic outbreaks in sight, and a storm track that is well South of our area. Sounds near perfect to me! Don’t let the… Read more »

INDY
INDY

So much for them red maps but then again I never have trust in them because if that was the case we would be having shorts on today from that last ones a few have posted in the past lol! ..This is great day so much to be thankful for thank you Michael for a wonderful blog and happy Thanksgiving Michael Slim Rocky Andy UJ ohh Sherry Susan uncle sparkee Bill Steffens and Mark let’s finish strong with a cold and snowy Winter!! Eat well INDYDOG14!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

I love it!

Andy W
Andy W

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone on the blog! Hey INDY it’s kinda like the pivotal weather snow maps, if those were real, GR would have 586 inches of snow every season! LOL!!

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Ha! So true.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Not nearly as cold overnight as I expected. Perhaps another front-loaded winter? That would be fine with me.

Getting ready to head to my niece’s. Lions this afternoon and MSU hoops at 10p tonight. I hope everyone has a great Thanksgiving

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

I agree, what happened to those overnight temps in the mid teens? We bottomed out here at 24, not bad at all, 10 degrees higher than what some were clamoring about.

Slim

The mean temperature for November is now at 35.6° that is good for a departure of -6.3° the fun stat for this month is that so far the highest maximum has been only 52° and if this holds that will be the coldest maximum for any November in Grand Rapids recorded history. The current coldest maximum is 53 set in 1907. So far this month the airport has reported 9.0” of snow fall. This has been a very cold November all across the state. The current departures are -6.7° at Muskegon. Their high for the month of 51 would be… Read more »

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Hard to believe it was in the mid 80s just six weeks ago. We didn’t get much of an autumn this year.

Slim

HAPPY THANKSGIVING!!!!
Slim

ROCKY (Rockford)
ROCKY (Rockford)

I am thankful we are heading into the best season of the year! Bring on WINTER! Get ready for a ROCKING winter! We will be seeing a lot of chances for Snow next week!

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_acc&rh=2018112206&fh=240&r=conus&dpdt=