These are the CPC updates as of yesterday. We have equal chances of above or below normal temperatures and about a 50% chance of above normal precipitation for February. For the long range outlook (February – March and April) we have about a 40% chance of below normal temperatures and 50% chance of above normal precipitation. Keep in mind that the keyword here is “chances”.
To the left is the high resolution simulated reflectivity radar (forecast) map through midnight.
Models are in reasonable agreement in showing a deepening area of low pressure tracking northeastward through the Great Lakes Region Today and into Tonight.
This system will be rather dynamic with a favorable coupled upper level jet.
The combination of strong lift and a very moist airmass with precipitation values well over 200 percent above normal will support widespread rain…especially this morning. There could even be a few thunderstorms as elevated instability will advect in from the southwest this morning and is then forecasted to persist for the afternoon.
The U.P. has a winter storm warning for 2 to 5 inches of snow mixing with freezing rain and drizzle. Portions of the northern lower have a winter weather advisory for mixed precipitation occurring. The ice will result in difficult travel conditions, including during the morning commute. Additional wet snow accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch are expected.
Today: Rain and possibly a thunderstorm before 1pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Areas of fog before 2pm. High near 48. East wind 8 to 11 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
Tonight: A chance of showers before 1am, then rain likely after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 35. South wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tuesday: A chance of rain and snow showers before 2pm, then a chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a temperature rising to near 38 by 9am, then falling to around 31 during the remainder of the day. Southwest wind 9 to 17 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tuesday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Northwest wind 8 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Wednesday: A 20 percent chance of snow showers after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. West northwest wind 7 to 9 mph.
Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20.
Thursday: A 20 percent chance of snow showers before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 37.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 29.
Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 47.
Friday Night: A chance of showers, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39.
Saturday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46.
Saturday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30.
Sunday: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36.
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