February Outlook – Monday/Tuesday Storm System

posted in: Michigan Weather Forecast | 22



These are the CPC updates as of yesterday.  We have equal chances of above or below normal temperatures and about a 50% chance of above normal precipitation for February.  For the long range outlook (February – March and April) we have about a 40% chance of below normal temperatures and 50% chance of above normal precipitation.  Keep in mind that the keyword here is “chances”.


 

To the left is the high resolution simulated reflectivity radar (forecast) map through midnight.

Models are in reasonable agreement in showing a deepening area of low pressure tracking northeastward through the Great Lakes Region Today and into Tonight.

This system will be rather dynamic with a favorable coupled upper level jet.

The combination of strong lift and a very moist airmass with precipitation values well over 200 percent above normal will support widespread rain…especially this morning. There could even be a few thunderstorms as elevated instability will advect in from the southwest this morning and is then forecasted to persist for the afternoon.

The U.P. has a winter storm warning for 2 to 5 inches of snow mixing with freezing rain and drizzle. Portions of the northern lower have a winter weather advisory for mixed precipitation occurring. The ice will result in difficult travel conditions, including during the morning commute. Additional wet snow accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch are expected.


Today: Rain and possibly a thunderstorm before 1pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Areas of fog before 2pm. High near 48. East wind 8 to 11 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

Tonight: A chance of showers before 1am, then rain likely after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 35. South wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tuesday: A chance of rain and snow showers before 2pm, then a chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a temperature rising to near 38 by 9am, then falling to around 31 during the remainder of the day. Southwest wind 9 to 17 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tuesday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Northwest wind 8 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Wednesday: A 20 percent chance of snow showers after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. West northwest wind 7 to 9 mph.

Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20.

Thursday: A 20 percent chance of snow showers before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 37.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 29.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 47.

Friday Night: A chance of showers, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39.

Saturday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46.

Saturday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30.

Sunday: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36.


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Andy W
Andy W

Wow!! Hit 47 in the last couple hours in G.R.! Incredible WARMTH!!!

Jack Edwards
Jack Edwards

The JEM Model is keeping IT’S Eyes onFebruary for a possibleBLIZZARD to Rember…stay JEM CueD..

Andy W
Andy W

Can the JEM push that blizzard to December 2018?? Keep the WARMER than normal temps rolling!!

Jack Edwards
Jack Edwards

The JEM is in Resale Not Wholesale ……LOL…

Andy W
Andy W

Made it to mid-40s here in Kent County, not bad!! The WARMTH continues according to WoodTV!! BRING IT!!

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Jack Edwards
Jack Edwards

50 on FRYday IS Possible…..

Andy W
Andy W

Yes sir Jack! Heading up to TC for the weekend with my wife, so it should be good driving weather!

Jack Edwards
Jack Edwards

Have FUN….Be safe in TC

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

It reached 51° here today – just 5° shy of the record high. The local TV met said the high temps will be above average 8 of the next 10 days.

Jack Edwards
Jack Edwards

FOG as Thick as PEA SOUP..Right NOW.!!!
At Thee IMFAMOUS YARDofCUES…..

Mookie
Mookie

Get ready for the warmth to continue into the start of February!
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Steve B.
Steve B.

So it is 42 in Grand Rapids and 53 here in Kalamazoo.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

35° in Alma, 41° here, and 51° in Jackson. That’s quite a variance over a short distance. It rained heavily this morning with lots of pounding on the roads. No thunder here. It is raining again. The ground is much more green than white.

Mark(East Lansing)
Mark(East Lansing)

Update on snow cover – only piles remain.

Andy W
Andy W

Update on my snow piles at home = nothing!

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

I like Bills entry on his blog titled “We miss a snowsrorm, but get lots of rain”. How many snowstorms have missed us now over the past several years? Seems like pretty much every major one!

Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

Rain, thunder & lightning here this morning. Thunderstorms in January I always find so unusual. Tomorrow it will be snow & colder.

Mookie
Mookie

I’m seeing some 50’s being reported in Michigan already at 9am with thunderstorms. Wow!

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

41 degrees, thunder, lightning, and holy smokes is it pouring out! We are almost up to an inch of rain already! Once again our best thunderstorms are happening in January, just like last year!

INDY
INDY

Temp is 37* with cold rain out at thee YARDofBRICKS not to sure it’s going to make it in the mid 40’s today like some thought looking ahead a descent storm system coming this weekend may have more snow then rain with it have to keep a eye on it!! February looks cold and snowy don’t put the shovels away for rakes just yet !! Stay tuned INDY !!

Mookie
Mookie

Ooops!

Mookie
Mookie

We are now below average snowfall for January and going below average snowfall for the winter very soon. Remarkably, we might even have a chance at a warmer than average January. Which is crazy because we were sitting at something like -16 degrees below average after the first week. Goes to show you how warm it’s been since that quick cold spell.