CPC Seasonal Outlooks

posted in: Michigan Weather Forecast | 5

Lots of rain is an understatement for this month.  Many totals around the state are near or exceed the five inch mark for yesterdays totals.  Most areas are close or have exceeded the record amounts for October.  I was talking to a person yesterday complaining about the rain, I said multiple that by ten and imagine the snowfall we could have received from this storm.

Otsego/Plainwell received 2.83 inches yesterday bringing our total to 10.93 inches for October with another seven days left in the month and 44.81 for the year.

If you look at the HRRR Futurecast on the Michigan Forecast Page you can see a good animation of lake enhanced rain for today.  Wind driven rain is expected today with another inch possible over most of the forecast area. The strongest winds will be on the north shore of Lake Superior – Very strong winds, with gusts to 60-70mph are possible, will uproot trees and lead to sporadic power outages today. Waves up to 25 feet, largest over south-central Lake Superior, will lead to significant lakeshore flooding and beach erosion.

Watch for ponding water!  I hit a low spot at the bottom of a hill in a valley yesterday and sent plumes of water over the top of my truck.  Luckily I was driving my truck or it could have been worse.  The standing water wasn’t apparent or else I would have slowed down.

A strong fall storm located over the Straits of Mackinac today will bring wind and rain to Southwest Lower Michigan. Periods of rain will continue right through the day with another 1.00 inch of rainfall possible in spots. Flooding of low lying areas and along streams and rivers is possible given the 2 to 5 inches of rain that has fallen in many areas since Sunday. It will turn blustery this afternoon with northwest winds of 15 to 30 mph developing. Gusts along the Lake Michigan shore this afternoon and evening will reach the 35 to 45 mph range. It will feel like fall with temperatures recovering very little today. Highs will top out in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Below are the CPC forecasts for this winter and early spring – this would suggest our coldest temperatures and best chances of snow will be after Christmas through early April.











 

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Slim

Now over 3” of rain (for this event) here at my house now at 3.18” with rain still falling. No wind here and the temperature has held in the upper 40’s and is now at 49°

Slim

Mookie
Mookie

Well, it’s the end of October and summer has finally ended in my book. It was a heck of a long summer this year. Still not seeing any super cold shots – just a glancing blow or two. It will be interesting to see how the incredibly warm Great Lakes will influence winter.

Sherry (Comstock Park)y
Sherry (Comstock Park)y

2.46 in of rain overnight here. Add the .59 from Sunday into Monday and I am over 3 inches so far. Much needed!!

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Here in Zeeland we are now up to 3.47″ of rain since Sunday making this the most rain we’ve had since I installed my weather station at the end of last year. Crazy how a month ago we couldn’t get a drop of rain and everything was brown, and now it can’t stop and everything is bright green. If and when the yard dries up, mowing season is not over yet!

Slim

For this event I am now at 2.91” There is still light rain falling. The temperature is 47° here and the wind is calm. The official total rain fall for the month at GRR is now 7.90” this makes this the 2nd wettest October in recorded history at Grand Rapids. The record is 8.32” in 1954.
Slim