Chance of Thunderstorms

posted in: Michigan Weather Forecast | 50

Seems we have been under one advisory or another over the past couple weeks – I wonder as we move towards spring if we will see an active storm season this year.  Speaking of storms the annual Skywarn training in Shelbyville is less than a month away, more on that in a later post.

Thanks for the reports on the ice event yesterday – this is why I have these posts as a repository of records for such events in SW Michigan.  I am hoping to find a person of the younger generation someday to take over this site as I am in my golden years and need an apprentice to mentor to take this site through another generation.  I am not a meteorologist by trade, I am still learning as many of you.  My training is more on the software side in designing this site to bring in current weather from multiple sources.  Slim is the weather guru of the site and he is a welcome addition to the Center bringing in historical records from the past.

As most of you know this site and the Coffee Shoppe were brought about to have a place for the members of Bills Blog to have a place to congregate after WOOD closed his commentary section.  From those building blocks I have built what I think is a fairly professional site which I hope will continue on through future generations.  The main focus beyond the blog and current weather is having a training tool for all to have a better understanding of the weather.


We have another wet day in store for I96 on to the south.  Yesterday we had .72 of an inch of rain and .40 thus far today (at 8am).  A few rumbles of thunder are not out of the question today as conflicting air masses move through the state.  In the U.P. there are blizzard and winter storm warnings – Copper Harbor and Calumet could see up to 18 inches of snow with 12 inches through most of the U.P..  The northeast lower peninsula is under a warning for heavy mixed precipitation.

Areas north of I96 could see up to a quarter inch of ice.  Wind gusts up to 45mph will muck up the works which could cause more power outages in the areas which see freezing rain.  Areas south will see temps warm into the upper 40s once again before crashing around sunset into the teens with snow showers mainly west of 131.  Tomorrow will be cold and windy with snow showers.  Below are the NAM model guesses for precip and temps through Sunday.



 

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Mark (East Lansing)MichaelVSandy (Hudsonville)Mark(East Lansing)Andy W Recent comment authors
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Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Still no power and it is wild out there!

INDY
INDY

Blizzard conditions out at thee YARDofBRICKS NE GR heavy blowing snow visibility is terrible.. I’m thinking the NWS was a little off the last few days on it’s Advisorys we could of easily had ice storm warnings yesterday and today could be winter storm warnings as of now ..12 days now my gals school closed has to be a winter season record stay safe if your traveling today INDY..

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Blizzard conditions? Who would have thought? Another bingo for the RDB! Incredible!

INDY
INDY

Wind driven snows out at thee YARDofBRICKS 16* degrees NE GR ..Be safe in the morning drive …INDY!

Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

The wind is wicked out there tonight. I can hear it hit the back of the house at times. The temps are falling!!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Nice 5 day snow map! Who would have thought? Incredible!
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2.php?STATIONID=GRR

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

The updated cpc hammers us with cold and snow for at least the next 2 straight weeks!!!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

No power here and it is a total mess outside!

INDY
INDY

Crazzy windy out at thee YARDofBRICKS NE GR we are so thankful most of the ice melted on the trees and power lines or we would of had even a bigger mess now we are getting ready for a flash freezee please everyone be safe ..INDY..

Mr. Negative
Mr. Negative

Yep…power back on here. It’s simply amazing that most of the ice left the trees prior to the current wind gusts.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

This will be interesting to check out especially as we go through the evening.

http://hint.fm/wind/

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Nice map and wait till that wind turns from the west and hammers us with snow!

Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

Anyone ready for SPRING?? It’s funny until about what 2 weeks ago we were all complain about the mild winter and lack of snow( not me lol!!) . Some of the tress are beautiful- I got some pics I have to get to MV,

Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

Right now roads are still wet but they are suppose to change and become slippery when temps fall.

INDY
INDY

I hope everyone is safe tonight..Don’t stay in the cold if you don’t have power you can call 211 they can assist you with the closet shelters in your area ..INDY .

Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

Great idea!! It is going to get way too cold to stay in your house without heat. Also be careful if you are using a substitute heat source for heat. Some types need ventilation.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

+1 rock on Indy!

Mr. Negative
Mr. Negative

ADA- power out 🙁 I guess this was my year. I have trees down surrounding the house, as do most neighbors. Good news?…it sounds as though falling ice is now in charge…fingers crossed. Somehow, we did not take a direct house hit. One foot seems to be as close as the trunks came. Very thankful…so far.

Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

Definitely something to be thankful for. At least your house and more important the people in it are OK.

Mark(East Lansing)
Mark(East Lansing)

Oh my goodness. I just looked at all the photos on WOOD’s website. It looks like the ice storm we had in 2003.

INDY
INDY

It’s alful here .. Lots of melting happing now I have noticed out my windows so that is good ..INDY

INDY
INDY

Wind is really picking up only going to make matters worse if then can get any worse my temperature has dropped a degree in the last hour to 33* that will not help eather …Stay safe if you have to travel ..INDY..

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

That is one crazy looking power outage map! Looks like all of GR is knocked out:

https://www.consumersenergy.com/outagemap

Mark(East Lansing)
Mark(East Lansing)

Holy smokes! Once again, we are very fortunate over here. Very little ice on trees and power lines.

Be safe, my westside friends!

Slim

So far the power is still on here at my house knock on wood. Also Barry see below for rain fall for this winter and some records for some past winter months.
Slim

INDY
INDY

Many many roads NE Grand rapids can not get down because of trees and braches power lines …I wish I could down load pictures I have been out taking some . Other then the Deracho winds storms I been through this is the worse.stay safe ..INDY ..

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Have you tried tinypic.com? Great site for loading pics then copy the links here. The site will grab them right from your phone.

Mr. Negative
Mr. Negative

This freezing rain needs to stop, and we need a melt this afternnon to get the ice off our trees. I have 50 foot trees down in the yard 🙁 If we get any type of “wind”, while the trees are iced, well…it’s safe to say Ada will reach “disaster” status. The non-stop sounds of cracking and fracturing is unsettling at best. Lousy week.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

That is one of the most accurate statements you have ever made! I usually root for snow this time of year, however I am rooting for temps in the mid 40’s with rain this afternoon for the exact reasons you just stated!!!!!! See even I can be a team player.

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Nice stats Slim on our incredibly mild Winter, with the exception of 2 weeks. I’d be interested to know what our rainfall totals have been since December 1. I can’t remember many Winters with this much rain. Not sure how much we have received since yesterday as I believe my pws is clogged up with ice. Haven’t had a chance to get out there and clean it out, but I’m pretty sure we are well over an inch now since yesterday.

Slim

Barry, the total precipitation at Grand Rapids since December 1st is 5.85″ there have been many winters with much more precipitation here in GR. Here is a list of the wettest winter months at GR For December 1971 6.63″ (3.7″ snow) 1982 6.49″ (8.2″ snow) 2008 6.27″ (54.6″ snow) For January 2005 4.67″ (2.8″ snow) 1975 4.36″ (10.7″ snow) 2006 4.30″ (9.6″ snow) 1993 4.21″ (11.1″ snow) February 1898 5.77″ (15.5″ snow) 1938 5.30″ (6.9″ of snow) 2018 4.93″ (20.7″ of snow)
Slim

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Thanks Slim! I realize there have been Winters with more precipitation, but it is hard to figure out how much of the precip has been rain. Snow has different levels of moisture so there’s no way to know how much of the total is actually rain. Not sure if they even keep track of separate totals for snow and rain.

INDY
INDY

We have a serious situation trees snd branches are falling everywhere into power lines! power is going out everywhere fires are starting in the GR area it’s a war zone I can see a nother state of emergency being declare in west Michigan also we have roads are very slippery and with the wind getting stronger today this is not good more trees are going to come down and the flash freezee coming tonight shelters will be open please be safe stay home and stay warm ….INDY..

Mr. Negative
Mr. Negative

Agreed…can’t speak for GR, but Ada is on the edge of a bad situation.

Slim

First indications of a mild start to spring. We are now undergoing a Major stratospheric cooling at this time. This is just the opposite of a stratospheric warming. This process will start to pull the Polar jet stream further north at a faster rate and lead to the Subtropical jet stream to be the dominant jet stream in the United States for March and April. In short, the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations are more likely to be in positive phases than negative phases for early Spring. That could lead the March and April pattern to be wet and on… Read more »

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Wet is good, warm is bad! I want snow till April, however I appreciate your analysis!

Andy W
Andy W

Love it Slim!!! Keep it up with the Warm Facts!! Looks like the Grounhog nailed it!!

Slim

Here is a update as to how this winter has played out so far. Here at Grand Rapids we are still running well below average is the snow fall department. February there only has been a trace of snow fall as of today. Since December 1st only 33.7” has fallen and for the season just 48.1” but remember that includes 14.4” in November. Out of the 69 days since December 1st there has only been 24 days with 1” or more on the ground at Grand Rapids. On the temperature side the mean for December was 32.5° (+3.3) January 21.8… Read more »

Slim

Getting moderate freezing rain here at this time. The current temperature here at my house is 31.5° As mentioned below GRR is now saying lower Michigan will be on the warm side of the system for next week. So that means a good chance of more rain.
Slim

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Great news>>>>the current CPC shows below normal temps at least through the beginning of March with above normal precip at least through the last week of February! incredible!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

What a winter! The winter weather just keeps coming! Friday looks very wintry and then next week hold on to your hat. More cold, snow, wind, sleet and freezing rain! What an incredible stretch of winter weather and no change in sight!

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Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Thunderstorms? How about the near blizzard conditions and snow hitting Friday morning?

Mookie
Mookie

NWS GR says any lake effect will be marginal due to blowing wind and small flake size.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

They will be 100% wrong. While we will not be seeing heavy snow, we will still have very poor visibility tomorrow am. Mark it down!

Slim

I have not seen anything that would indicate “near blizzard” conditions in the forecast. In fact next weeks system could be a lot like this one with rain.
Slim

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Check back with me Friday morning!

Mookie
Mookie

Another very warm February day on tap. NWS GRR says no big snow in sight and that the big storm Tues/Wed looks to be trending warmer. More mixed precipitation?

Slim

There are several indications that spring might be much closer and it could become wet and mild in in early spring. We shall see.
Slim