Once again we have a winter weather advisory for the lakeshore counties and one county to the east. Seems this weather pattern has become the norm for the area of late.
The snow is piling up an inch or two at a time slowly adding up to the beautiful whiteness we have on the ground to cover the dead foliage and grass. I used to love winter sports, skiing and what not, but now it admire it from my picture window and from my car driving down the road.
The new snow blower I bought last year has actually gotten some use this winter. Luckily we don’t have the length of lake Erie to worry about or the 60+ inches of snow they have received since Christmas Eve. We can see major lake effect come off lake Michigan but the moisture content and lift in the atmosphere has been on the low side thus far, we still have many chances as we still have January and February to get through.
The winter storm warning for Mason, Oceana and Muskegon counties expires at noon today. The winter weather advisory for Allegan, Barry, Van Buren and Kalamazoo counties lasts until 4am Saturday morning. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected with locally more in any heavier persistent banding. One round of snow early this morning will diminish through the remainder of the morning. Another more impactful snow will arrive later this afternoon and last through much of the night. Counties north of Allegan county have advisories and warnings expiring at noon today.
Concern over the intensity of the lake effect snow band for later Saturday into Saturday night exists…especially for Van Buren County. There are some indications that the snow could be rather intense given the degree of instability and longer fetch that is shown to evolve. There is an increased risk for higher impacts.
The arctic blast continues with highs of only 10 to 15 much of next week. Tuesday, the relative warmer day, will see 15 to 20.
Today: Snow showers, mainly before 1pm. High near 18. West wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of around an inch possible.
Tonight: Snow showers. Steady temperature around 16. West wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of around 4 inches.
Saturday: Snow showers likely, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 9 by 10am. Wind chill values as low as -6. Northwest wind 10 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.
Saturday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 0. Northwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming light and variable after midnight.
Sunday: A 20 percent chance of snow showers after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 12. Light and variable wind.
Sunday Night: A 50 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 4.
New Year’s Day: A 40 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 14.
Monday Night: A chance of snow showers, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 6.
Tuesday: A slight chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 15.
Tuesday Night: A chance of snow showers, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 6.
Wednesday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 16.
Wednesday Night: A slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 2.
Thursday: A slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 13.
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
* WHAT…Snow occurring. Plan on slippery road conditions.
Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are expected.
* WHERE…Allegan, Barry, Van Buren, Muskegon, Ottawa, Kent counties and Kalamazoo counties.
* WHEN…Until 1 PM EST Saturday.
Southwest Lower Michigan will remain in the grips of the arctic chill for at least another week. Highs in the teens are expected through the end of next week and lake effect snow will continue through that time. There will be brief flareups of snow as waves of low pressure move through the region and travel will likely be impacted through next week.
We are in a pattern where the lake effect snow never really ends. Visibilities have been anywhere from a quarter mile to 4-6 miles this afternoon over the western cwa where radar shows snow showers continuing to develop and move inland. A short wave is passing just south of Michigan this afternoon and light snow is falling across much of the upper Midwest. However, another wave was noted on water vapor imagery and the short range models track this wave across the central and southern portion of Lake Michigan tonight. We should see another flareup of the snowfall. Bufkit omega profiles…especially the 3km Nam shows another solid bullseye in the DGZ around midnight. It`s worth noting though that the vertical motion isn`t expected to be as intense as last night`s was. As a result, we decided to continue with the winter weather advisory vs a winter storm warning over the lake shore counties. We also included Calhoun county in the advisory and extended the advisory through 18z. For a few hours on either side of midnight tonight, snowfall rates may approach an inch per hour near the lake shore and a solid 3-6 inches is possible there with lesser amounts farther inland. H8 temps will continue to create extreme instability over the lake as they fall to near -22c Saturday and remain there into Sunday.
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