Active Weather Pattern

posted in: Michigan Weather Forecast | 7

We may be entering a more entertaining weather pattern today, i.e. if you are fascinated by storms, winds and hail with flashes of lightning and rumbles of thunder.  The lack of severe weather over the past few years has been frustrating for Skywarn and storm chaser participants, or a sigh of relief for most others including insurance companies.

Many bought generators for their homes several years ago (like myself) when storms were rampant in southern Michigan.  I have used mine three times in the past five years and that was only for a few hours per incidence, just like buying new snow blowers and having to use them two or three times over the past few winters.  The same doesn’t go for buying mowers with the expectation of not having the grass to grow.

We have a fast moving system of storms and rain moving through Wisconsin this morning which we may see this afternoon if it doesn’t fizzle out.  Here is a nice write up from Scott Borchardt of the Grand Rapids NWS this morning:

Let`s talk about the elephant in the room right off the bat and
admit the forecast has lower confidence than usual or to be
expected after just the first 12 hours. All eyes are on the
convective complex currently passing through central Minnesota in
association with a speed max within northwesterly flow aloft (a
regime more typical of July than May). As the morning progresses,
the complex should adopt more of a southeasterly track along the
nose of a low-level jet through central/southern Wisconsin and
eventually northeastern Illinois, perhaps firing off a new round
of activity in northern Indiana by mid-afternoon. Now it`s hard to
discern what sort of footprint the complex will have on upstream
areas given the lack of an appreciable cold pool, but it seems the
outflow from the decaying system (or any renewed development)
ought to impede the best low- level moisture and surface-based
instability from creeping into Lower Michigan this evening,
especially considering the increased mid-level debris cloud cover
that`ll pass over our area. As such, the potential for showers
and storms this afternoon is uncertain. Several deterministic
models (both convective allowing and not) also build up a strong
pressure rise/fall couplet (+/-5 mb!) with the complex this
morning which would lead to a period of gusty southwesterly winds
locally this afternoon, but such a feature seems rather unlikely
given the weak/disorganized nature to the activity.

The 00Z CAMs offer a variety of scenarios this afternoon, but our
hunch is that the strongest activity may end up across northern
Illinois and northern Indiana where the best chance for
appreciable surface-based instability will exist. Even so, the
low-level wind fields and steep mid-level lapse rates approaching
7-7.5 K/km will be more than supportive of severe weather with
the main threat of severe hail up to golf ball (1.75") size should
we manage to achieve any surface-based instability this
afternoon/evening. There remains a stubborn signal in our far
southwestern corner (so Allegan, Van Buren, and Kalamazoo
counties) having such a non- zero chance this evening, which lines
up with the maintained SPC Slight Risk. Now in the unlikely
scenario that the convective system decays before making it to
northern Illinois and we have an untapped reservoir of moisture
and instability into Lower Michigan, we`ll have ourselves a busy
evening with both severe weather and flooding possible (and the
rest of the forecast for the next 2-3 days would likely need some
big updates). As horrible as it is to say at this venture, the
best course of action is just to watch trends hour by hour to see
how this shakes out as models really struggle in these regimes.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible area wide this afternoon and evening. A few storms may become severe mainly south of a line from Holland to Kalamazoo with large hail to golf ball (1.75″) size as the main risk.  This doesn’t bode well for those of use who just planted our gardens as hail this size are rampant leaf shredders.

Additional thunderstorms are possible Friday night through Sunday, with the highest chances Saturday night and Sunday.  I anticipate that this site will be more active today through Sunday.


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Rocky (Rockford)Mark (East Lansing)Sandy (Hudsonville)Mr. NegativeSlim Recent comment authors
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Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Just another cloudy, below normal temp Spring day! What an amazing below normal temp pattern we are entrenched in!!!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Feels significantly warmer here today than yesterday. The breeze was cool and drier yesterday. 74° currently.

Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

It would feel warmer outside if the sun would shine. Feels chilly and we have had sprinkles on & off this afternoon.

Mr. Negative
Mr. Negative

Just another weekend of rain. Storms?…nonsense, as we all know. It’s just envy…wanting to experience weather familiar to every other state in the union. Our “warm-up” is nothing more than a warm front, which will soon depart, leaving us where we belong…cold, and below average for 2019 and beyond.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Bring it!


The clouds have now moved in and the temperature here at my house is now at 70° The last reading from the airport was 66. So while mild this is not as nice as yesterday. As Indy said there looks to be a warmer, wetter period towards the end of May and maybe the start of June.


The heat and Thunderstorms are building and moving in to the great lks states summer is close with very warm temps around the end of May ..INDY is ready!!