A Winter’s Guess

posted in: Michigan Weather Forecast, Slim | 14

As we all should know all long-range seasonal outlooks are nothing more then a guess. While some are more educated than others, they are all none the less nothing more then a guess. One long range guess that has been around for a long time is the one that comes in “The Old Farmer’s Almanac” this publication started way back in 1792 so for 228 years they have been making some kind of a yearly weather guess. And in that time I am sure just by luck they have gotten some  right (well kind of) Any way the Almanac’s winter guess for our area for this winter is for a warmer than average winter with less snow fall. After a near average November their call is for a much warmer than average December and January followed by a mild but less so then Dec and Jan February,  A cool March a near average April and then a warm to hot summer into the fall season. (I wonder if they just looked at the CPC’s long range guess?) anyway if the almanac’s is right, you know it will be a warm winter with less snow so we can all save on our heat bills and not use the snow blower all that much. Who could ask for more?
While not just the winter season but the whole year here is a list of the warmest and coldest mean temperatures for a whole year at Grand Rapids. This list goes only back to 1898 as the years before that have several months of missing data.
Warmest years at Grand Rapids
2012——-52.8
1931——-52.2
1921——-52.2
1998——-51.5
2016——-51.2
2010——-51.1
1938——-50.9
1939——-50.5
2017——-50.3
2007——-50.2
2006——-50.2
Notice 7of the top 11 have been in the last 20 years. So that many of you have seen at least 7 of the warmest years of record here at Grand Rapids.
Coldest years
1917——-44.6
1904——-45.2
1978——-45.6
1972——-45.7
1943——-45.7
1969——-45.8
1989——-45.9
1974——-45.9
1924——-46.0
1907——-46.0
1950——-46.1
1912——-46.1
As you can see the most recent year of the top coldest years was 1989 and the first year on the list since 2000 is 2014 that came in at no 16 with a mean of 46.5. That means for some of you the coldest years you may have seen are 2014 and 1989 (note I have seen 5 of the coldest year and was around for one more but there is no way I can remember it.

This year the hottest day was 92 there has been only 14 years where the temperature has not reached at least 92 in Grand Rapids. There have been 12 years in recorded history at Grand Rapids that have reached 100 or better.

1936——-108

2012——-104

1934——-104

1916——-103

1957——-102

1918——-102

1931——-101

1988,1964,1947,1921 and 1911 all reached 100.

The coldest of the cold lows at Grand Rapids are

1899…….-24

1994……-22

1951…….-22

1979…….-21

1981…….-19

1973,1948 and 1942……..-18

1983……..-18

1996……..-17

Last year the coldest it got was -10 and that is colder then the average coldest low for a winter at Grand Rapids of -7°

Slim

 

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INDY
INDY

Yeaa looks cooler next week then once thought like this week was cooler then once thought .. I think NWS forgets it’s September lol..Have A nice Saturday Night…INDY

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Heat index readings approaching 100 a few days ago was cooler than originally thought?? I don’t remember seeing any forecasts ahead of time for that.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

More facts! The GR national weather service forecast shows NO 80’s for next week! How is that possible!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

You may want to check again:

Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Calm wind.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 58.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 59.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 81.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 62.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 80.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 63.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Great stats as always, Slim.

I’m going to mow again today – the 3rd time in the past week. My grass looks as good as it did in May. Usually this time of year, it’s beginning its dormancy.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Just another below normal temp day is on tap! Enjoy the sun and the cool temps!

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

The overnight low was 7 degrees above average. I think you need to check the facts?

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

This winter we will be seeing tons of snow! Get ready!

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

That outlook will be tough for some to swallow, but sounds like the perfect Winter to me! Although a hot Summer does not sound the most appealing, but I guess you can’t get everything perfect. Nice read Slim.