A Warm Week Ahead – First Frost Dates

posted in: Michigan Weather Forecast | 9

Whilst riding my tractor around mowing the grass an grinding up fallen leaves I was thinking to myself it won’t be long before I put the mowers to bed and moving the snow blower to the front of the shed.  Our first frost could be a month away more or less dependent on when the cold air begins to move south.  Below is the percentile of chances when our first hard frost will come into Michigan.  You can click the image to expand it….


The majority of freeze events during this time of the year are accompanied by relatively calm, cloudless weather conditions during evening and early morning hours. These so-called “radiation freeze” conditions are usually associated with a large Canadian-origin area of high pressure and relatively low humidity.

I am not seeing a frost or freeze event in our near future however it is something to keep in mind as we have reached the middle of September.  I suspect things will be cooling down as we get into the last week of September and the first of October.  It just seems strange to be watching football when the air is warm – football was meant to be played in the cold and rain and snow – Oorah!!!


Temps will remain warm this week with little chances of rain after today –  upper 70s to low 80s will be the story most of the week.  I hate predicting the weather more than a day or two out – things change, especially this time of year when we have a battle of the air masses from the north and south.  We know which one will win as we get into October and November…


 

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Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

Hey do any of you remember me from Bills Blog??

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

I do. Hey Nathan! What’s the latest? Are you still pursuing a career in meteorology?

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Where have you been? We will be getting revved up about winter soon! All signs point towards a rocking good winter! Get ready for tons of snow!

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

Hey glad you all remember me! Yeah I currently go to MSU and am getting a degree in math and computer science, but I definitely want to apply to U of M for a masters/ph.D in meteorology eventually. And yes I am really excited for the snow haha. If we get lucky we might get some snowflakes in around a month!

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

Also I will have to change my location to East Lansing but I’ll just keep it at Forest Hills for now because that’s what everyone remembers.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

That’s exciting! Good for you, and GO GREEN.

Slim

For Grand Rapids the average first 32° reading is October 13th the earliest was September 3rd 1946 and the latest was November 18th 1918 Last year it was on October 18th (remember a frost can happen with a official temperature warmer then 32) the average first hard freeze of 28 at GRR is October 28th the earliest was September 24th 1976, The latest was November 29th 1948. Last year it was on October 18th (with a low of 27 on the 18th it was both the first 32 and 28 low of last year)
Slim

Slim

Not much rain here the morning as just a trace fell. So far, this month is almost average. The mean so far this month is 66.2 the 30 year average as of September 14th is 66.0 so that is a departure of +0.2. At the airport they have reported 2.22” of rain fall and here at my house I have reported 3.83” as the storms last week dropped much more rain here then at the airport. Yesterdays H/L at GRR was 72/59 the average is 74/53 the record high was a very hot 97 set in 1939 and the record… Read more »

INDY
INDY

What more rain …Such a wet Fall….I’m loving the cloudy and cool Sunday ahead I will have to cut the grass again tomorrow nothing new lately out at thee YARDofBRICKS NE of GR have a super football Sunday…INDY