Saturday October 21 2017
Another rerun of what we have had this week, sunny and warmer today with temperatures in the mid 70s over most of the state.
Dry conditions are expected into Saturday night. High temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal both Friday and Saturday with highs in the lower to mid 70s. Sunday into next week will be unsettled with frequent rain showers. Much of next week will also be considerably cooler with highs in the 50s.
So, enjoy the next two days, finish up the yard work, get those lawns mowed and I am thinking it is time to put the lawn mowers to bed and get the snow blower and shovels ready for winter. The GFS models are trying to bring snow into the Midwest the first week of November with 10 inches in Minnesota and Wisconsin and some lake effect into the western counties of Michigan. I added a new tab below which includes the snow forecast for the Midwest and Great Lakes.
The NWS has released their winter outlook which you will find in today’s blog post.
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NWS Forecast Graphics & Discussions
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Above normal temperatures will continue today and tonight. Highs will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s today and lows in the 50s tonight. Showers and possibly some thunderstorms are possible across far western Upper Michigan today, becoming likely across the western half of the U.P. tonight.
Dry conditions, gusty winds and warm temperatures will lead to elevated fire danger this afternoon across northern Michigan. Gusty winds and warm temperatures Sunday afternoon will lead to elevated fire danger across northeast lower Michigan.
High temperatures will rise well into the 70s today and Sunday, ahead of a cold front, which will move into southeast Michigan Sunday night. Showers are likely Sunday Evening and Sunday Night, with the potential for heavier rain early next week.
Another mostly sunny and very warm day. Breezier with highs in the upper 70s - or about 20 degrees above normal!
No impact weather expected. Only change of note was to bump up Friday and Saturday high temperatures to the mid 70s for much of the area. This is a bit greater than model guidance and was done in coordination with the Detroit and Gaylord offices.
Rain-showers are expected to have spread eastward into our waters and western zones by early Sunday morning. Timing with this has been quite consistent with successive model runs. Therefore, confidence with timing the onset of this precipitation is currently good. .
Confidence is high that we`ll see rain Sunday as a cold front moves across the state. The gfs and ecmwf haven`t changed much in their solutions. The gfs is still a bit quicker and the ecmwf continues to develop a wave on the front over the southern U.S. before moving it north along the frontal boundary. The change from yesterday is that the bulk of the rain from this wave is not depicted over southeast Lower MI.
Thus the chances for significant rainfall…over an inch…is lower than yesterday. Still think we could see a third of an inch or so from this system Sunday. Chances for thunderstorms aren`t zero Sunday, but aren`t high either. LI`s fall to around 1c as the front passes through.
There may be a better chance at seeing convection along the lake shore Tuesday when LI`s fall to around -2c. Lapse rates will steepen quite a bit (~8c/km) when the colder air aloft moves over the warm lake water. Opted to include a isolated mention of storms Tuesday afternoon along the lake shore.
An impressive upper low will develop over the Great Lakes Mon-Wed resulting in more showers and much cooler temperatures. This cool down has also been well advertised by the models for several days and highs in the 50s are expected Tue-Thu. We`re likely to see temperatures fall into the 30s Tue night and Wed night.